. Daily Commodity Analysis - oil, gas plunge, gold, copper struggle.

Daily Commodity Analysis – oil, gas plunge, gold, copper struggle.

Daily Commodity Analysis – oil, gas plunge, gold, copper struggle.

22 Jan 2024

Introduction

Oil prices decline on Monday as global economic concerns weigh on the demand outlook, overshadowing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. U.S. crude futures slip to $73.13 a barrel, reflecting prevailing market sentiment. Meanwhile, natural gas prices plummet 24% amid warmer weather forecasts. Gold faces pressure from expectations of prolonged higher interest rates, while copper edges lower due to weak economic outlook in China, indicated by underwhelming GDP figures and limited policy support from the People’s Bank of China.

Markets In Focus Today – BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil down as economic headwinds weigh on demand outlook.

Oil prices lost more ground on Monday as economic headwinds pressured the global oil demand outlook and offset geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and an attack on a Russian fuel export terminal over the weekend. The front-month U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, for February delivery, were down 28 cents to $73.13 a barrel with the contract set to expire later on Monday. The more active March WTI contract was at $73.04 a barrel, down 21 cents. This morning’s subdued re-open speaks volumes about current sentiment in the crude oil market despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 78.16 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 78.11 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 79.44 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 78.05 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 78.08 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 78.64 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 48.94 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 63.41 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 80.60 R2 : 82.82
  • S1 : 73.40 S2 : 71.18

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 77.32 | Take Profit : 74.65 | Stop Loss : 79.29

NATURAL GAS

Natural-Gas Prices Shed 24% Past Week.

Natural-gas futures plunged this week, a counter intuitive outcome for a market in which prices usually rise when snow starts piling up in heavily populated areas. Futures for February delivery dropped 24% over the course of the week . U.S. natural gas prices hit a two-week low due to warmer forecasts. January’s gas output in Lower 48 states fell, recovery expected. Warmer weather pattern predicted to reduce natural gas demand.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.70 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.69 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.68 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.81 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.71 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.62 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 38.56 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 14.09 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.60 R2 : 2.71
  • S1 : 2.22 S2 : 2.11

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 2.432 | Take Profit : 2.216 | Stop Loss : 2.596

GOLD

Gold prices edge lower in face of higher-for-longer rates.

Gold prices fell in Asian trade on Monday amid increasing bets that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer, although some safe-haven demand and near-term dollar weakness kept the yellow metal above key levels. Bullion prices were hit with a heavy dose of profit-taking in January as traders unwound bets that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates by as soon as March 2024. This unwinding came to a head late last week when the yellow metal fell close to breaking below the $2,000 an ounce level. But gold remained under pressure from the prospect of higher-for-longer U.S. rates.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2029.85 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2033.29 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2019.72 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2029.53 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2042.40 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2025.94 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 47.04 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 32.20 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2127.21 R2 : 2168.19
  • S1 : 1994.53 S2 : 1953.55

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 2023.52 | Take Profit : 1998.95 | Stop Loss : 2039.38

COPPER

Copper edges lower, China outlook remains weak.

Among industrial metals, copper prices fell slightly on Monday, and retained a bulk of their losses made so far in January. The red metal was battered by growing doubts over an economic recovery in top importer China, after the country clocked underwhelming GDP figures for the fourth quarter. Sentiment towards China showed little sign of improvement on Monday, after the People’s Bank of China kept its benchmark lending rates at record lows, signaling that it had limited headroom to loosen policy further and support growth.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 3.769 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 3.760 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 3.804 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 3.770 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 3.760 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 3.804 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 49.06 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 87.24 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.790 R2 : 3.850
  • S1 : 3.724 S2 : 3.667

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Stop Sell : 3.757 | Take Profit : 3.693 | Stop Loss : 3.808

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold down (0.33%) at 2022.65, Silver down (2.2%) at 22.11, Palladium down (3.09%) at 919.06, Platinum down (0.29%) at 896.83, Brent Crude down (0.83%) at 77.91, WTI Crude Oil down (0.79%) at 72.66 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(CNY) PBoC Loan Prime Rate Forecast 3.45%, Previous 3.45% at 06:45. (EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 19:30.