. Daily Commodity Analysis - Oil, Gold, Geopolitics, and Global Markets.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil, Gold, Geopolitics, and Global Markets.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil, Gold, Geopolitics, and Global Markets.

22 Dec 2023

Introduction:

In the commodities market, Brent Crude Oil continues its weekly rise, marking a 1% increase amid ongoing tensions in the Red Sea. While geopolitical concerns persist, concerns arise about OPEC’s efficacy after Angola’s exit. Gold prices surge as the dollar hits a four-month low, with investors awaiting key inflation data. Additionally, XAG/USD sees an upward surge, and copper prices remain close to early-August highs.

Brent Crude Oil:

Oil continues its weekly gains, registering a 1% increase amid ongoing tensions in the Red Sea.

Oil prices experienced a 1% increase on Friday due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East after Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea. However, concerns arose about the effectiveness of OPEC in supporting prices following Angola’s decision to exit the group.

Both contracts have marked a second consecutive week of gains, each recording an increase of over 4%, supported by heightened shipping concerns that have boosted prices.

Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA, mentioned that the current bullish sentiment in oil prices is being underpinned by increasing geopolitical risks stemming from the disruptions caused by the Red Sea attack.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 79.41| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 78.35| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 78.19| Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 79.28| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 78.36| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 77.44| Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 60.07| Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 39.18| Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 80.32 | R2: 84.49
  • S1: 77.40| S2: 73.70

Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 81.26 | Take Profit: 84.49 | Stop Loss: 79.37.

Gold:

Gold prices experience a surge as the dollar reaches a four-month low; Investors await inflation data.

On Friday, gold prices increased, building on the momentum from the previous session, following a modest downgrade to the third-quarter U.S. GDP and weaker labor market data, which pushed the dollar to its lowest point in four months.

All attention is now directed toward crucial inflation data scheduled for later in the day, seeking further confirmation that the Federal Reserve will implement interest rate cuts in 2024.

The gains on Friday brought spot gold close to breaking through a trading range of $2,000-$2,050 per ounce that had been established over the past week. Gold bulls expressed satisfaction with indications of a slowing U.S. economy.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 2046.24 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 2033.90 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 2024.10| Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 2044.97 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 2034.13| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 2026.64| Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 66.45 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 100.00| Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 2055.14 | R2: 2087.97
  • S1: 2031.69| S2: 2005.89

Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion:  Stop Buy: 2058.65 | Take Profit: 2087.97 | Stop Loss: 2039.89.

Elsewhere In the Commodity Market.

XAG/USD experiences an upward surge in response to a weakened US Dollar. In the realm of industrial metals, copper prices showed minimal movement on Friday but remained near their highest levels since early August.

Gold is up (0.39%) at 2053.94, Silver is up (0.28%) at 24.46, Palladium is up (0.61%) at 1219.41, Platinum is up (0.59%) at 969.65, Brent Crude Oil is up (0.89%) at 80.12, WTI Crude Oil up (1.10%) at 74.67 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(JPY) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 5:20.

(GBP) GDP (QoQ) (Q3) Actual –0.1%, Forecast 0.0%, Previous 0.2% at 12:30.

(GBP) Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) Actual 1.3%, Forecast –0.4%, Previous –0.3% at 12:30.

(CAD) GDP (MoM) (Oct) Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.1% at 19:00.

(USD) Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Nov) Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.2% at 19:00.

(USD) New Home Sales (Nov) Forecast 695K, Previous 679K at 20:30.