. Daily Commodity Analysis - Oil, gold, silver surge amid tensions.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil, gold, silver surge amid tensions.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil, gold, silver surge amid tensions.

22 Feb 2024

Introduction

WTI crude oil rebounds to $78.00 amidst Middle East tensions and signals from the Federal Reserve suggesting interest rates have peaked. Natural gas futures surge over 11% as Chesapeake Energy reduces output. Gold prices reached a two-week high on geopolitical concerns, supported by a weaker USD. Silver maintains gains above $23.00, eyeing the 100-day SMA, driven by strong positive momentum.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

WTI recovers to $78.00 amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, Fed Minutes suggest rates have peaked.

WTI prices drift higher to the $78.00 mark amid the ongoing Middle East geopolitical conflicts. The January FOMC Minutes indicated that interest rates in the US are likely to reach their peak. Crude oil inventories in the US last week rose by 7.168 million barrels vs. 8.52 million barrels prior. Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $78.00 on Thursday. WTI prices edge higher as Federal Reserve (Fed) officials indicated that interest rates have likely reached their peak and the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to impact the supplies of crude oil.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 77.5451 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 76.6263 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 75.7719 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 77.7675 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 76.4625 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 74.3771 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 57.7169 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 76.8444 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 78.6054 R2 : 80.9659
  • S1 : 70.9639 S2 : 68.6034

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 77.81 | Take Profit: 79.63 | Stop Loss: 76.90

NATURAL GAS

Natural gas futures see the biggest one-day jump since July 2022.

The price of U.S. natural gas rose more than 11% on Wednesday, taking its gains this week to nearly 13% after producer Chesapeake Energy Corp (NASDAQ: CHK) said it was lowering its output. Natural gas futures have fallen 48% from their most recent peak in early January, hitting a three-and-a-half-year low of $1.576 on Tuesday, before embarking on a 13% rally. Chesapeake Energy said on Tuesday that it would lower its gas production in 2024 as gas prices slumped.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.8064 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.9653 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.2542 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.7483 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.9813 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.3490 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 35.8571 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 28.6462 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.0654 R2 : 3.3340
  • S1 : 2.1960 S2 : 1.9274

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 1.71 | Take Profit: 1.50 | Stop Loss: 1.87

GOLD

Gold price climbs to near two-week high as USD selling remains unabated ahead of US PMI.

Gold price attracts some haven flows in the wake of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The USD dives to a fresh three-week low and provides an additional boost to the commodity. Hawkish FOMC minutes remain supportive of elevated US bond yields and might cap gains. Gold price (XAU/USD) climbs to a nearly two-week high during the first half of the European session on Thursday, with bulls now looking to build on the momentum beyond the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) pivotal resistance. The US Dollar (USD) dives to its lowest level in almost three weeks in the absence of fresh hawkish signals from the FOMC meeting minutes and turns out to be a key factor benefiting the commodity. Apart from this, a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East offers additional support to the safe-haven precious metal and remains supportive of the positive move.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2020.9846 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2022.7621 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2021.7263 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2014.6024 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2024.7952 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2033.4978 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 53.6750 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 61.6048 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2069.3814 R2 : 2087.5486
  • S1 : 2010.5686 S2 : 1992.4014

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 2033.37 | Take Profit: 2051.61 | Stop Loss: 2022.73

SILVER

XAG/USD sticks to strong gains above $23.00, and eyes a 100-day SMA.

Silver gains strong positive traction on Thursday and climbs back closer to the 100-day SMA barrier. The technical setup favors bullish traders and supports prospects for a further appreciating move. A sustained move and acceptance below $22.00 is needed to negate the near-term positive bias. Silver (XAG/USD) builds on the overnight bounce from the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) support near the $22.75 area, or the weekly low, and gains strong positive traction on Thursday. The momentum remains unabated through the first half of the European session and lifts the white metal to the $23.10-$23.15 region.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 23.01 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 22.93 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 22.68 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 23.02 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 22.90 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 22.68 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 56.53 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 12.92 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 23.14 R2 : 23.77
  • S1 : 22.74 S2 : 22.14

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 23.22 | Take Profit: 23.77 | Stop Loss: 22.93

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is up (0.29%) at 2031.71, Silver is up (1.02%) at 23.11, Palladium is up (1.59%) at 967.40, Platinum is up (1.61%) at 897.10, Brent Crude Oil is up (0.37%) at 83.35, WTI Crude Oil up (0.46%) at 78.26 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(USD) FOMC Meeting Minutes at 00:30. (EUR) German Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Forecast 46.1, Previous 45.5 at 14:00. (GBP) Manufacturing PMI Forecast 47.5, Previous 47.5 at 15:00. (EUR) CPI (YoY) (Jan) Forecast 2.8%, Previous 2.9% at 15:30. (CAD) Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) Forecast 0.7%, Previous –0.5% at 19:00. (USD) Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 217K, Previous 212K. (USD) Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Forecast 50.5, Previous 50.7 at 20:15. (USD) Existing Home Sales (Jan) Forecast 3.96M, Previous 3.78M at 20:30.