. Daily Commodity Analysis - Oil, gold, wheat, silver plunge, traders wary.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil, gold, wheat, silver plunge, traders wary.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil, gold, wheat, silver plunge, traders wary.

29 Feb 2024

Introduction

WTI crude oil hovers below $78.00, touching $77.75 in the early Asian session, driven by the Federal Reserve’s delayed rate cuts and a surge in US oil stocks. OPEC+ mulls extending voluntary output cuts, adding to market pressure. Gold price remains range-bound, awaiting cues from the US PCE Price Index release, while silver (XAG/USD) hits a two-week low at $22.30 amid technical bearish signals. Wheat futures face downward pressure on the Chicago Board of Trade, influenced by strong competition in global export sales, particularly from Russia and Ukraine.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

WTI holds below $78.00, US PCE data looms.

WTI drops to $77.75 in Thursday’s early Asian session. EIA crude oil inventory rose by 4.199 million barrels last week, weaker than expected. OPEC+ is considering extending their voluntary oil output cuts into the second quarter Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $77.75 on Thursday. WTI prices edge lower as the Federal Reserve (Fed) delayed the first-rate cuts while rising US oil stocks added to the pressure. The US crude oil stocks increased by 8.428 million barrels for the week ending February 23 from 7.168 million barrels built in the previous reading, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API). Additionally, the EIA Crude Oil stockpiles came in weaker-than-expected, rising by 4.199 million barrels last week from 3.514 million barrels prior.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 77.8570 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 77.1559 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 76.1632 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 78.1368 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 76.8117 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 74.9706 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 56.7588 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 71.1996 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 78.6054 R2 : 80.9659
  • S1 : 70.9639 S2 : 68.6034

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 78.93 | Take Profit: 82.16 | Stop Loss: 77.22

WHEAT FUTURES

US wheat futures ended mostly lower on the competition for export sales.

Analysts said U.S. wheat futures closed mostly lower on Wednesday as forecasts for large Russian production highlighted strong competition for global export business. Chicago Board of Trade March soft red winter wheat futures (WH24) settled 15 cents lower at $5.71 per bushel, and most-active May wheat (WK24) ended 9-1/2 cents lower at $5.74-3/4 per bushel. Russia has ample supplies of exportable grain, analysts said, and Ukraine’s grain exports so far in February have exceeded last year’s level by almost 12%. On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture is expected to report 2023/24 U.S. wheat export sales of 200,000 to 500,000 metric tons for the week ended Feb. 22.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 598.43 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 611.78 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 642.87 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 595.92 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 611.78 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 642.87 | | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 31.5 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 33.1 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 608.12 R2 : 639.33
  • S1 : 585.42 S2 : 571.94

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 605.28 | Take Profit: 576.20 | Stop Loss: 624.44

GOLD

Gold price extends the range play ahead of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Gold price struggles to gain any meaningful traction as traders await a fresh catalyst. The Fed’s higher-for-longer interest rates narrative caps the upside for the XAU/USD. Traders also prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the US PCE Price Index release. Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its sideways consolidation price move through the first half of the European session as traders wait for more cues about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate-cut path before placing fresh directional bets. Hence, the focus will remain glued to releasing the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Any signs of sticky inflation will further reinforce bets that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer, which, in turn, should boost the US Dollar (USD) and prompt some selling around the non-yielding yellow metal.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2028.3978 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2026.4950 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2023.5787 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2027.1694 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2023.6607 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2033.3878 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 55.1089 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 85.7295 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2069.3814 R2 : 2087.5486
  • S1 : 2010.5686 S2 : 1992.4014

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 2038.69 | Take Profit: 2056.93 | Stop Loss: 2028.05

SILVER

XAG/USD seems vulnerable near $22.30, a two-week low.

Silver loses ground for the third straight day and drops to over a two-week low. The technical setup favors bears and supports prospects for additional losses. A sustained move above the 200-day SMA is needed to negate the negative bias. Silver (XAG/USD) remains under heavy selling pressure for the third successive day on Wednesday – also marking the fifth day of a negative move in the previous six and drops to over a two-week low during the first half of the European session. The white metal currently trades around the $22.30 region and seems vulnerable to prolonging its recent downfall witnessed over the past two weeks or so.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 22.52 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 22.67 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 22.69 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 22.49 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 22.67 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 22.70 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 40.81 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 13.54 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 22.63 R2 : 23.42
  • S1 : 21.90 S2 : 20.98

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 22.54 | Take Profit: 21.79 | Stop Loss: 23.02

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is up (0.14%) at 2036.83, Silver is up (0.19%) at 22.46, Palladium is up (1.48%) at 938.18, Platinum is up (1.32%) at 886.03, Brent Crude Oil is down (0.01%) at 81.73, WTI Crude Oil up (0.12%) at 78.34 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(NZD) RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks at 00:40. (AUD) Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) Actual 1.1%, Forecast 1.6%, Previous –2.7% at 06:00. (EUR) German Unemployment Change (Feb) Forecast 6K, Previous –2K at 14:25. (EUR) German CPI (MoM) (Feb) Forecast 0.5%, Previous 0.2% at 18:30. (USD) Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jan) Forecast 0.4%, Previous 0.2% at 19:00. (CAD) GDP (MoM) (Jan) at 19:1. (USD) Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jan) Forecast 1.4%, Previous 8.3% at 20:30.