. Daily Commodity Analysis - Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, And Silver Trends.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, And Silver Trends.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, And Silver Trends.

05 Jun 2024

Introduction

Oil prices fall near four-month lows as OPEC+ plans to raise output and US stockpiles rise. Natural gas futures retreat after earlier gains as traders weigh weather, production, and LNG exports. Gold remains range-bound before US data, supported by potential Fed rate cuts and geopolitical tensions. Silver edges higher on rising expectations of a Fed rate cut.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

Oil near four-month low on OPEC+ supply outlook and US stocks.

Oil prices hovered near four-month lows on Wednesday on an expected supply boost later in the year when OPEC+ begins to unwind some output cuts, with markets also digesting U.S. jobs data and higher oil stocks.Both contracts fell more than 1% on Tuesday to their lowest settlement levels since early February, having declined by about $3 a barrel on Monday.The slide followed news from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies of plans to increase supply from the fourth quarter despite recent signs of weakening demand growth. Prices drew some support from data showing that U.S. job openings fell more than expected in April, which could help the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation and strengthen the case for cutting interest rates.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 74.55 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 75.88 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 77.43 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 74.75 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 76.90 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 77.84 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 26.32 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 9.88 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 75.34 R2 : 77.97
  • S1 : 72.53 S2 : 70.42

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 75.60 | Take Profit : 72.59 | Stop Loss : 77.97

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Futures lower as Traders Assess Weather and Production.

U.S. natural gas futures are down after relinquishing earlier gains as traders evaluated current weather demand, signs of weakening production, and anticipated increases in LNG activity. Earlier it saw a sharp rally in natural gas prices driven by hot temperatures in Texas/ERCOT, where highs reached the 90s and 100s. Although a slight cooling is expected this weekend, temperatures will remain relatively warm. In Europe, supply risks eased as a key Norwegian pipeline is expected to be repaired by Friday, following an outage that caused prices to surge. Given the forecast of strong near-term demand due to continued warm weather, combined with production declines and potential supply disruptions in Europe increasing demand for U.S. LNG exports, the outlook for U.S. natural gas prices remains bullish.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.648 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.661 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.609 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.653 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.656 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.681 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 46.16 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 44.95 | Neutral Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.82 R2 : 3.13
  • S1 : 2.51 S2 : 2.20

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2.58 | Take Profit : 2.44 | Stop Loss : 2.83

GOLD

Gold price remains capped in a familiar trading range ahead of US Services PMI data.

Gold price (XAU/USD) attracted some sellers in previous session and dropped back closer to a multi-week low touched the previous day in the wake of a modest US Dollar (USD) strength. The attempted USD recovery from over a two-month low, however, lacked follow-through on the back of growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting interest rates later this year, bolstered by softer US macro data. The expectations keep the US Treasury bond yields depressed, which, in turn, is seen benefiting the non-yielding yellow metal during the European session on Wednesday. Apart from this, geopolitical risks stemming from the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East lift the safe-haven Gold price back closer to the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Despite a combination of supporting factors, the XAU/USD remains confined in a one-week-old trading range as investors seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets and prefer to wait for the release of the crucial US monthly employment details, or the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. In the meantime, the US ADP report on private-sector employment and the US ISM Services PMI should provide some impetus later today.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2336.34 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2340.88 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2349.22 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2333.09 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2340.14 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2365.13 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 44.6 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 54.98 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2350.56 R2 : 2391.69
  • S1 : 2315.92 S2 : 2284.54

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 2344.30 | Take Profit : 2330.37 | Stop Loss : 2352.95

SILVER

XAG/USD trades around $29.50 nearing three-week lows.

Silver price edges higher due to the growing expectations of the Fed implementing a rate cut in September.CME FedWatch Tool indicates the Fed rate cut odds by at least 25 basis points has risen to nearly 64.9%.Any failure to secure a peace agreement between Israel and Hamas could bolster the safe-haven Silver.Silver price rebounds from a three-week low of $29.38 recorded on in previous sessioin, now trading around $29.45 per troy ounce during the European session on Wednesday. This upward correction in Silver prices is likely due to increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin reducing interest rates starting from the September meeting, following a series of weak US economic data.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 30.14 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 30.49 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 30.35 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 30.14 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 30.86 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 30.86 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 37.56 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 8.3 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 31.31 R2 : 32.49
  • S1 : 30.13 S2 : 28.38

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 30.27 | Take Profit : 28.74 | Stop Loss : 31.34

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.25%) at 2331.76, Silver down (0.03%) at 29.47, Palladium up (0.98%) at 924.69, Platinum up (0.81%) at 995.12, Brent Crude Oil up (0.26%) at 77.29, WTI Crude Oil up (0.19%) at 72.99 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(AUD) GDP (QoQ) (Q1) Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.2% at 07:00. (GBP) Composite PMI (May) Forecast 52.8 Previous 54.1 at 14:00. (GBP) Service PMI (May) Forecast 52.9, Previous 55.0 at 14:00. (USD) ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (May) Forecast 173K, Previous 192K at 17:45. (CAD) BoC Interest Rate Decision Forecast 4.75%, Previous 5.00% at 19:15. (USD) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (May) Forecast 51.0, Previous 49.4 at 19:30. (CAD) BoC Press Conference at 20:00.