. Daily Commodity Analysis - Oil plunges, gold rises, stay informed.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil plunges, gold rises, stay informed.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil plunges, gold rises, stay informed.

26 Feb 2024

Introduction

WTI crude oil extends its decline, nearing $76.00 amid concerns of prolonged higher interest rates impacting global demand. Uncertainties prompt caution, with economic activities dampened by elevated interest rates. Meanwhile, natural gas sees a bullish shift driven by Chesapeake Energy Corp.’s production cut. Gold trades below a two-week high as retreating US bond yields support, and geopolitical risks persist. Copper retreats as markets await China PMI data for economic signals, with President Xi Jinping’s focus on logistics offering potential support for industrial activity.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

WTI extends losses to nearly $76.00 due to concern over the prolonging of higher interest rates.

WTI price continues to lose ground for the second successive session on Monday. Crude oil prices receive downward pressure due to uncertainties over Crude oil demand globally. Higher interest rates globally dampen economic activities, which in turn undermines the consumption of oil. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices extend their decline for the second consecutive session, hovering near $76.00 per barrel during the Asian trading session on Monday. The downward pressure on Crude oil prices can be attributed to uncertainties surrounding demand, likely influenced by heightened global risk sentiment. This sentiment could prompt central banks to adopt a patient stance regarding the trajectory of interest rates.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 77.1384 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 76.5739 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 75.8165 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 77.6956 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 76.3471 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 74.6021 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 49.3248 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 61.0940 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 78.6054 R2 : 80.9659
  • S1 : 70.9639 S2 : 68.6034

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 76.74 | Take Profit: 73.60 | Stop Loss: 78.83

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Price Edges Towards Recovery Amid Supply Cuts.

The U.S. natural gas market has seen a notable shift towards bullish sentiment, driven largely by Chesapeake Energy Corp.’s significant reduction in its 2024 production. This strategic decision, aimed at counteracting the low prices and oversupply, significantly influenced market sentiment and pricing. Despite the possibly developing bullish trends, inventory levels are still significantly higher than the five-year average, presenting a challenge to a sustained price recovery. Traders are advised to keep a close watch on both inventory and demand indicators, as well as significant industry developments like the increase in LNG export capacity and associated gas production from oil-rich shale formations.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.7696 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.9155 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.2107 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.7054 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.9176 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.3252 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 37.7760 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 21.8949 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.0654 R2 : 3.3340
  • S1 : 2.1960 S2 : 1.9274

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.76 | Take Profit: 1.55 | Stop Loss: 1.92

GOLD

Gold price trades just below a two-week top amid sliding US bond yields, and subdued USD demand.

Gold price attracts some dip-buyers on Monday amid a modest US Dollar downtick. Retreating US bond yields undermine the USD and lend support amid geopolitical risks. Hawkish Fed expectations might cap any further gains for the non-yielding XAU/USDGold price (XAU/USD) reverses an intraday dip and climbs to the $2,035 region during the early European session, though remains below a two-week high touched on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) continues with its struggle to attract any buyers amid retreating US Treasury bond yields, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the commodity. Apart from this, persistent worries about geopolitical risks stemming from conflicts in the Middle East and the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war lend additional support to the safe-haven precious metal.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2024.8642 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2024.4836 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2022.5116 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2016.5420 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2025.4235 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2033.8372 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 55.2121 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 78.8634 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2069.3814 R2 : 2087.5486
  • S1 : 2010.5686 S2 : 1992.4014

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2030.52 | Take Profit: 2051.87 | Stop Loss: 2019.85

COPPER

Copper retreats, China PMI test awaited.

Among industrial metals, copper prices fell slightly on Monday, retreating from recent gains as markets awaited more key economic signals from China this week. Focus this week is largely on purchasing managers index data from top copper importer China, which is expected to offer more cues on a potential economic recovery in the country. Chinese media reports offered some positive cues. Chinese President Xi Jinping in a recent address emphasized the importance of logistics and supply chains for the Chinese economy, while also promoting a new round of equipment renewals in the country, which could help increase industrial and factory activity.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 3.86 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 3.85 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 3.78 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 3.87 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 3.85 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 3.78 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 55.78 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 4.9 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.87 R2 : 3.95
  • S1 : 3.79 S2 : 3.71

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 3.86 | Take Profit: 3.79 | Stop Loss: 3.90

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is down (0.02%) at 2035.06, Silver is down (0.05%) at 22.83, Palladium is down (0.25%) at 968.83, Platinum is down (0.24%) at 898.15, Brent Crude Oil is down (0.63%) at 80.31, WTI Crude Oil down (0.65%) at 75.99 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(USD) Building Permits Forecast 1.470M, Previous 1.493M at 18:30. (USD) New Home Sales (Jan) Forecast 680K, Previous 664K at 20:30. (EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 21:30.