. Daily Commodity Analysis - Oil Prices Rise, Natural Gas Dips.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil Prices Rise, Natural Gas Dips.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil Prices Rise, Natural Gas Dips.

28 Jun 2024

Introduction

Oil prices rise for a third day near $82 on supply concerns. Middle East tensions and production disruptions in Ecuador threaten supply. Natural gas dips as traders eye storage data, while gold awaits inflation data’s impact. Copper prices head for a monthly loss on worries about China’s demand.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

WTI rises toward $82.00 due to supply threats over escalated Middle East tensions.

WTI continues its winning streak due to supply concerns amid Middle-East tensions and weather-related disruptions.Escalated tensions between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah could potentially involve Iran, a major Oil exporter.Over the past week, Ecuador’s production has decreased by 100,000 barrels per day due to heavy rains.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price extends gains for the third successive day, trading near $81.80 during the Asian session on Friday. Crude Oil prices are set to advance for the third straight week due to supply threats, which could be attributed to an escalating conflict in the Middle East. Tensions between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah have escalated as Hezbollah has intensified rocket and drone attacks in northern Israel in recent weeks. A broader conflict in the Middle East could potentially involve countries like Iran, a major Oil exporter in the region.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 80.9716 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 80.0188 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.6263 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 81.3228 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 78.8186 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.3017 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 63.0033 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 93.4755 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 80.3846 R2 : 81.6628
  • S1 : 76.2468 S2 : 74.9686

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 81.80 | Take Profit : 84.46 | Stop Loss : 80.27

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Gains Capped as Traders Brace for EIA Data.

Natural gas futures decline as traders await the EIA’s weekly storage report. The market balances high demand forecasts with robust supply concerns.Natural gas prices in Texas fall to negative $1 per MMBtu at the Waha hub due to infrastructure issues causing temporary oversupply.High temperatures forecasted for the southern U.S. while increased wind energy production is expected to offset demand, particularly in Texas.The outlook for natural gas futures remains bearish. High supply levels and infrastructure maintenance continue to suppress prices despite strong weather-driven demand. Traders should exercise caution, closely monitoring supply chain developments and weather forecasts in this volatile market environment.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.6883 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.6654 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.4616 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.7163 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.7212 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.4001 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 49.7728 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 6.1146 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.7527 R2 : 3.0177
  • S1 : 1.8947 S2 : 1.6297

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 2.71 | Take Profit : 2.49 | Stop Loss : 2.87

GOLD

Gold could witness volatility after release of PCE inflation data.

Gold is likely to witness increased volatility after the US PCE inflation data release on Friday. A lower PCE reading would support the yellow metal as it would, in turn, result in lower interest rates – a benefit to non-yielding Gold. XAU/USD has broken above a key trendline, further invalidating the bearish H&S topping pattern that had been forming. Gold (XAU/USD) edges marginally lower, trading in the $2,320s on Friday, ahead of the main economic data event for the week, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) – Price Index for May. The PCE is the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, and since the Fed is in charge of setting interest rates, the result could influence their trajectory. Gold is a non-interest-bearing asset so the level of interest rates impacts its value. Higher interest rates make Gold less attractive to investors whilst the opposite is true of lower rates.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2324.4080 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2328.4656 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2318.2151 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2325.8672 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2327.2497 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2337.0804 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 49.5567 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 34.7551 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2417.4629 R2 : 2458.2274
  • S1 : 2285.4964 S2 : 2244.7319

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Stop Buy : 2331.35 | Take Profit : 2371.93 | Stop Loss : 2305.37

COPPER

Copper nurses June losses, China PMIs awaited .

Among industrial metals, copper prices rose on Friday and were set for a negative end to June as sentiment over top importer China soured. Benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.6% to $9,576.50 a tonne, while one-month copper futures rose 0.8% to $4.3695 a pound. But both contracts were down between 4% and 5.5% in June. Losses in copper were driven chiefly by growing doubts over strong global demand, as economic conditions in major countries deteriorated. Top importer China also became a source of concern in the face of a potential trade war with the West. Focus was now on upcoming purchasing managers index data from China, which is due over the weekend.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.42 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.46 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.53 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.43 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.49 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.52 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 33.13 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 7.96 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.43 R2 : 4.64
  • S1 : 4.25 S2 : 4.06

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 4.40 | Take Profit : 4.21 | Stop Loss : 4.54

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.01%) at 2327.52, Silver up (0.88%) at 29.24, Palladium up (3.59%) at 960.28, Platinum up (1.68%) at 1004.21, Brent Crude Oil up (0.76%) at 86.05, WTI Crude Oil up (1.03%) at 82.60 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(GBP) GDP (QoQ) (Q1) Forecast 0.6%, Previous –0.3% at 02:00. (GBP) GDP (YoY) (Q1) Forecast 0.2%, Previous –0.2% at 02:00. (EUR) German Unemployment Change (Jun) Forecast 14K, Previous 15K at 02:30. (USD) Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (May) Forecast 0.1%, Previous 0.2% at 08:30. (CAD) GDP (MoM) (Apr) Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.0% at 08:30.