. Daily Commodity Analysis - Oil Prices Steady, Natural Gas Falls.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil Prices Steady, Natural Gas Falls.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil Prices Steady, Natural Gas Falls.

18 Jun 2024

Introduction

Oil prices dip after hitting multi-week highs, but hold above key support. Optimism on fuel demand and supply curbs offer some cushion. Natural gas futures slide despite hot weather forecasts due to rising production. Gold edges higher on hopes of a Fed rate cut, but awaits US data for direction. Copper tumbles to an eight-week low as weak demand in China weighs on the metal.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

WTI corrects from multi-week top, slides back to mid-$79.00s confluence breakpoint.

WTI meets with some supply on Tuesday amid the emergence of some USD dip-buying.Optimism over firming fuel demand and Middle East tensions should help limit losses.The overnight close above the $79.50 confluence resistance also favors bullish traders.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices edge lower during the Asian session on Tuesday and erode a part of the overnight strong gains to the $80.00 neighborhood, or a nearly three-week high. The commodity, however, manages to hold above the $79.50 confluence resistance breakpoint, comprising 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). The OPEC+ producer group reassured last week that a plan to raise supplies from the fourth quarter of this year could be paused or reversed based on market conditions. This comes on top of the latest optimism over strong fuel demand, bolstered by the International Energy Agency monthly report. Apart from this, expectations that a drawdown in US inventories will tighten the market in the second half of the year should act as a tailwind for Crude Oil prices.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 78.3785 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 78.1093 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 78.8958 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 77.6963 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 77.4491 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.7858 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 57.2311 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 88.7804 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 80.3846 R2 : 81.6628
  • S1 : 76.2468 S2 : 74.9686

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 79.03 | Take Profit : 81.12 | Stop Loss : 77.73

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Futures Slide as Production Rises.

U.S. natural gas futures fell with rising production and lower LNG feed gas demand offsetting hot weather.Despite forecasts of the hottest weather in 45 years, natural gas prices decline due to strong selling pressure and MVP pipeline operations.NatGasWeather reports continued price declines as the 15-day forecast predicts extreme heat, but production and storage levels remain high. Despite forecasts predicting the hottest weather pattern of the past 45 years, natural gas prices declined. The strong selling pressure can be attributed to the announcement that the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) became operational late last week, adding to the supply concerns. The bearish sentiment in the futures market was further supported by the EIA’s storage report, which revealed comfortable storage levels exceeding last year’s figures and the five-year average.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.7316 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.6281 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2.3686 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.7698 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.6400 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.2382 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 57.6448 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 5.72 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.7527 R2 : 3.0177
  • S1 : 1.8947 S2 : 1.6297

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2.74 | Take Profit : 3.05 | Stop Loss : 2.59

GOLD

Gold price struggles to get direction as investors await US Retail Sales.

Gold price edges higher on Tuesday, albeit the uptick lacks any follow-through buying.Signs of easing inflation keep a September Fed rate cut on the table and lend support.A modest USD strength caps the upside for the XAU/USD ahead of the US Retail Sales.Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buying during the European session on Tuesday and reverses a part of the previous day’s modest losses. The incoming US macro data suggested that inflationary pressures are subsiding, keeping hopes alive for the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September and lending some support to the non-yielding yellow metal. The commodity, however, lacks bullish conviction and remains confined in over a one-week-old range below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), warranting some caution for bullish traders.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2322.8831 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2330.9798 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2314.6490 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2323.9975 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2333.8461 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2343.3569 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 46.6538 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 33.5850 | Neutral Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2417.4629 R2 : 2458.2274
  • S1 : 2285.4964 S2 : 2244.7319

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 2323.23 | Take Profit : 2282.64 | Stop Loss : 2358.94

COPPER

Copper’s Price Falls To Eight-Week Low As Demand Weakens In China.

Copper’s price has fallen to its lowest level in two months as demand for the industrial metal weakens in the key market of China. Soft economic data out of China, copper’s biggest market, has exerted downward pressure on copper’s price, causing it to fall 0.9% to $9,655 U.S. per ton on the London Metal Exchange. That is the lowest price for Copper in eight weeks and comes after a blistering rally that had sent the metal’s price to an all-time high. The slump in copper’s price comes on news that industrial output in China has slowed as the housing and construction slump in the nation of 1.4 billion people worsens. Metal prices worldwide also came under pressure last week as the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its outlook for interest rate cuts this year.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.49 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.51 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.58 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.49 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.51 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.60 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 40.17 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 42.33 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.61 R2 : 4.83
  • S1 : 4.39 S2 : 4.15

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Stop Sell : 4.39 | Take Profit : 4.18 | Stop Loss : 4.58

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold down (0.08%) at 2313.97, Silver down (0.9%) at 29.17, Palladium down (0.73%) at 883.03, Platinum up (0.21%) at 966.52, Brent Crude Oil down (0.41%) at 83.99, WTI Crude Oil down (0.58%) at 79.46 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(AUD) RBA Rate Statement at 00:30. (AUD) RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jun) Forecast 4.35%, Previous 4.35% at 00:30. (EUR) CPI (YoY) (May) Forecast 2.6%, Previous 2.4% at 05:00. (USD) Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May) Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.2% at 08:30. (USD) Retail Sales (MoM) (May) Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.0% at 08:30. (USD) Industrial Production (MoM) (May) Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.0% at 09:15.