. Daily Commodity Analysis -Oil rises on geopolitical tensions, gas hits low.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil rises on geopolitical tensions, gas hits low.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil rises on geopolitical tensions, gas hits low.

09 Feb 2024

Introduction

Oil remains stable with prospects of weekly gains after Israel rejects a ceasefire offer from Hamas, sustaining tensions in the Middle East. Both Brent and WTI experienced a 3% surge as Israeli forces continued operations. Due to bearish storage reports and unfavorable weather forecasts, natural gas futures hit a more than three-year low. Gold struggles amid uncertainty over aggressive Fed rate cuts, while silver shows recovery but faces technical challenges for sustained gains.

Markets In Focus Today – BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil heads for weekly gains after Israel rejects ceasefire offer.

Oil prices were little changed on Friday, staying on track for weekly gains, with tensions persisting in the Middle East after Israel rejected a ceasefire offer from Hamas. Both benchmarks rose about 3% in the previous session as Israeli forces bombed the southern border city of Rafah on Thursday after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a proposal to end the war in the Palestinian enclave The tensions have kept oil prices elevated, with Brent and WTI both set to gain more than 5% for the week.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 80.1468 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 79.8148 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 79.8974 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 80.1115 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 79.9283 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 78.4612 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 56.5250 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 56.4783 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.3603 R2 : 85.5650
  • S1 : 76.2230 S2 : 74.0183

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 80.89 | Take Profit: 83.41 | Stop Loss: 79.57

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Futures Fall to More Than 3-Year Low.

Natural gas futures fell to a more than three-year low as a weekly storage report came in as bearish as expected, and near-term weather forecasts remain un-supportive of prices. U.S. natural gas futures dipped on Thursday as traders awaited the government’s weekly storage report. With ample fuel in storage, rising output, and reduced gas flow to LNG export plants, futures are at a three-year low, breaching the $2 per mmBtu support level. The EIA said withdrawals from underground storage last week were 75 billion cubic feet, bringing inventories to 2,584 Bcf. Storage was 10.6% above the five-year average.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.1698 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.3123 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.4835 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.1707 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.3786 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.4774 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 28.9577 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 1.7151 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.0654 R2 : 3.3340
  • S1 : 2.1960 S2 : 1.9274

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 2.03 | Take Profit: 1.82 | Stop Loss: 2.18

GOLD

Gold price remains confined in a familiar range amid Fed rate cut uncertainty.

Gold price continues with its struggle to gain any meaningful traction on Friday—reduced bets for an aggressive Fed policy easing cap the upside for the metal. Traders prefer to wait for next week’s US inflation data before placing fresh bets. Gold price (XAU/USD) fails to build on the overnight bounce from the $2,020 region and oscillates in a familiar trading range during the Asian session on Friday. Growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer in the wake of a still resilient US economy continues to act as a headwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2033.7881 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2033.2980 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2025.1953 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2036.5516 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2030.4128 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2033.8605 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 49.9924 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 43.2904 | Neutral Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2069.3814 R2 : 2087.5486
  • S1 : 2010.5686 S2 : 1992.4014

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 2036.41 | Take Profit: 2057.69 | Stop Loss: 2022.73

SILVER

XAG/USD sticks to recovery gains, not out of the woods yet.

Silver rebounds from over a two-week low, though the upside seems limited. The technical setup supports prospects for the emergence of fresh sellers. A move beyond a descending trend-line is needed to negate the bearish bias. Silver (XAG/USD) stages a goodish recovery from the $22.20-$22.15 area, or over a two-week low touched earlier this Thursday, and builds on its steady intraday ascent through the first half of the European session. The white metal climbed to a fresh daily peak, around the $22.40 region in the last hour. However, the technical setup seems tilted in favor of bearish traders and warrants caution before positioning for any further appreciating move.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 22.46 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 22.51 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 22.65 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 22.37 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 22.51 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 22.65 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 52.41 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 100.00 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 22.69 R2 : 23.29
  • S1 : 22.10 S2 : 21.57

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 22.74 | Take Profit: 23.29 | Stop Loss: 22.41

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is down (0.02%) at 2033.38, Silver is up (0.47%) at, 22.66, Palladium is up (0.52%) at 893.02, Platinum is up (0.77%) at 891.84, Brent Crude Oil is down (0.13%) at 81.52, WTI Crude Oil down (0.04%) at 76.19 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(AUD) RBA Bullock Speaks at 04:00. (EUR) German CPI (MoM) (Jan) Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.1% at 12:30. (CAD) Unemployment Rate (Jan) Forecast 5.9%, Previous 5.8% at 19:00. (CAD) Employment Change (Jan) Forecast 16.0K, Previous 0.1K at 19:00.