. Daily Commodity Analysis - Oil spikes, gas drops 8%, gold gains, copper challenges.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil spikes, gas drops 8%, gold gains, copper challenges.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil spikes, gas drops 8%, gold gains, copper challenges.

30 Jan 2024

Introduction

WTI crude oil sees a slight uptick amid rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, although concerns over demand in China may limit gains ahead of the FOMC. Traders eye the API report on US stockpiles for short-term opportunities. Meanwhile, natural gas experiences its largest daily decline in nearly two weeks due to an outage at Freeport LNG and milder weather forecasts. Gold prices rise as US bond yields fall, fueled by escalating tensions in the Middle East. Investors await cues from the upcoming FOMC meeting. Copper futures, previously boosted by China’s monetary stimulus, face pressure amid doubts about its impact on economic challenges in the country.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

WTI ticks higher amid geopolitical risks, China demand concerns cap the upside.

WTI attracts some buyers on Tuesday amid fears about supply disruptions in the Middle East. Demand concerns in China could act as a headwind for the commodity ahead of the FOMC. Traders now look to the API report on US stockpiles for short-term opportunities on Tuesday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices ticked higher during the Asian session on Tuesday and for now, seem to have stalled the previous day’s rejection slide from the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) or a nearly two-month peak. A further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continues to fuel supply concerns and turns out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the black liquid.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 75.64 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 74.61 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 74.93 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 75.38 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 73.87 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 73.60 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 59.37 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 81.10 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 75.38 R2 : 77.52
  • S1 : 68.47 S2 : 66.33

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 75.64 | Take Profit: 79.00 | Stop Loss: 73.58

NATURAL GAS

Natural gas futures drop over 8%, the biggest fall in nearly 2 weeks.

Natural gas futures fell sharply on Monday, with front-month prices registering their biggest daily decline in nearly two weeks, as a reported outage at Freeport LNG was expected to add to domestic supplies and forecasts for milder weather dulled prospects for heating demand. On Monday, the front-month February natural-gas contract NGG24, -9.26% settled at $2.49 per million British thermal units, down 22 cents, or 8.2%, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Mild short-term temperature outlooks in the U.S. and a production outage at the U.S. Freeport LNG terminal pressured natural gas prices, said Victoria Dircksen, commodity analyst at Schneider Electric, in a daily report.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.45 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.54 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.61 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.47 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.68 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.56 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 35.67 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 3.86 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.60 R2 : 2.71
  • S1 : 2.22 S2 : 2.11

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 2.20 | Take Profit: 2.02 | Stop Loss: 2.33

GOLD

Gold price scales higher as US bond yields extend fall and Middle East tensions continue to rise.

Gold price (XAU/USD) gains some positive traction for the second straight day on Tuesday and steadily climbs back closer to the $2,040-2,042 supply zone during the first half of the European session. Fears that escalating tensions in the Middle East could trigger a wider war in the region keep a lid on the recent optimism in the markets. Apart from this, a further decline in the US Treasury bond yields turns out to be a key factor lending support to the non-yielding yellow metal. Investors might also prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the crucial FOMC monetary policy meeting starting this Tuesday, which might provide cues about future rate decisions and provide a fresh directional impetus to the XAU/USD.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2027.95 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2030.04 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2020.96 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2023.21 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2030.20 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2031.79 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 52.98 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 46.03 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2127.21 R2 : 2168.19
  • S1 : 1994.53 S2 : 1953.54

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2037.78 | Take Profit: 2168.19 | Stop Loss: 2019.21

COPPER

Copper futures reeling under pressure.

Gains in copper were fueled chiefly by more monetary stimulus in top importer China, which helped quell concerns over a looming slowdown in demand. However, analysts still questioned just how much economic support more monetary stimulus would provide, given that China was grappling with a severe slowdown in consumer and business spending. A post-COVID economic rebound also failed to materialize in 2023 and kept sentiment towards China largely negative.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 3.85 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 3.82 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 3.79 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 3.84 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 3.82 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 3.79 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 61.59 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 31.93 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.86 R2 : 3.95
  • S1 : 3.81 S2 : 3.76

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 3.88 | Take Profit: 3.95 | Stop Loss: 3.84

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is up (0.27%) at 2038.48, Silver is down (0.01%) at 23.16, Palladium is up (0.37%) at 988.19, Platinum is up (0.28%) at 930.14, Brent Crude is down (0.07%) at 81.77, WTI Crude Oil down (0.04%) at 76.73 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) German GDP (QoQ) (Q4) Forecast –0.3%, Previous –0.1% at 04:00. (EUR) GDP (QoQ) (Q4) Forecast –0.1%, Previous –0.1% at 05:00. (USD) CB Consumer Confidence (Jan) Forecast 115.0, Previous 110.7 at 10:00. (JPY) Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) Forecast 2.4%, Previous-0.9% at 18:50. (AUD) CPI (QoQ) (Q4) Forecast 0.8%, Previous 1.2% at 19:30. (CNY) Manufacturing PMI (Jan) Forecast 49.3, Previous 49.0 at 20:30.