. Daily Commodity Analysis - Oil surges, gas constraints, gold slides, copper boosted.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil surges, gas constraints, gold slides, copper boosted.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil surges, gas constraints, gold slides, copper boosted.

05 Feb 2024

Introduction

Oil prices rose on Monday as the US plans additional strikes in the Middle East, while Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s largest refinery. The rebound follows last week’s 7% drop, driven by stronger US jobs data and progress in Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks. Concerns about the Middle East conflict persist, impacting oil markets. In the natural gas sector, withdrawals from storage fell short of demand, with expectations of a reversal due to mild weather. Gold prices slide as the dollar surges, fueled by reduced rate-cut expectations. Copper sees a slight rise amid supply concerns in Chile, the world’s top copper producer.

Markets In Focus Today – BRENT CRUDE OIL

Oil inches up as US plans more strikes in Mideast, Ukraine hits Russian refinery.

Oil prices nudged higher on Monday, recovering from sharp falls last week, after Washington pledged to launch further strikes on Iran-backed groups in the Middle East and as Ukrainian drones struck southern Russia’s largest refinery. Both benchmarks ended last week down about 7%. They fell 2% on Friday after stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data suggested interest rate cuts could be further out than expected and on progress in ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Investors remained wary of any escalation in the Middle East conflict after the U.S. signaled further strikes on Iran-backed groups in the Middle East in response to a deadly attack on U.S. troops in Jordan.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 79.49 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 79.43 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 79.79 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 80.49 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 79.37 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 78.52 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 42.02 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 17.15 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.36 R2 : 85.57
  • S1 : 76.22 S2 : 74.02

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 76.99 | Take Profit: 74.82 | Stop Loss: 78.59

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Faces Constraints as Storage Draw Falls Short of Meeting Demand.

In the recent dynamics of the U.S. natural gas market, futures witnessed a decline prompted by a withdrawal of 197 billion cubic feet (Bcf) from underground storage in the preceding week. This withdrawal, while surpassing the average, aligned with industry predictions. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released data indicating that natural gas inventories were 2.1% higher than the corresponding period in the previous year, with a surplus of 5.1% compared to the five-year average for the week. Despite this surplus, the trajectory is expected to reverse in the weeks ahead, primarily influenced by below-average draws attributed to the mild weather anticipated towards the end of January and the projected mild start to February.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2.35 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.45 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.56 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2.34 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.57 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.53 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 37.65 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 7.10 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.07 R2 : 3.33
  • S1 : 2.20 S2 : 1.93

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 2.217 | Take Profit: 2.001 | Stop Loss: 2.342

GOLD

Gold prices slide as dollar surges on easing rate cut expectations.

Gold prices fell in Asian trade on Monday, extending losses from the prior week as a mix of strong labor market data and hawkish Federal Reserve signals saw markets dial back expectations for early interest rate cuts. The yellow metal fell sharply from highs above $2,050 an ounce, as the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates heralded more near-term pressure. The dollar shot up to a near two-month high on Monday, while Treasury yields also advanced in Asian trade. Losses in gold were initially triggered by a substantially stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls reading for January, which showed continued resilience in the world’s largest economy- which gives the Fed more headroom to keep rates higher for longer.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2032.65 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2032.45 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2023.46 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2030.50 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2029.93 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2034.89 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 46.24 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 57.29 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2069.38 R2 : 2087.55
  • S1 : 2010.57 S2 : 1992.40

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 2018.86 | Take Profit: 2001.33 | Stop Loss: 2031.39

COPPER

Copper buoyed by Chilean supply concerns.

Among industrial metals, copper prices rose slightly on Monday, amid concerns over potential supply disruptions in Chile, stemming from deadly wildfires in the South American country. Chile is the world’s largest producer of copper, with any potential disruptions in supply from the country serving to potentially tighten global copper markets. But the worst of the forest fires appeared to be situated well away from the country’s biggest copper mines, raising questions over just how much supply disruption would come from the fires. Any further gains in copper were also held back by persistent concerns over slowing demand in top importer China, as the country struggles with a sluggish post-COVID economic recovery.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 3.85 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 3.82 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 3.79 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 3.84 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 3.82 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 3.79 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 61.59 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 31.93 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.87 R2 : 3.95
  • S1 : 3.81 S2 : 3.75

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 3.88 | Take Profit: 3.95 | Stop Loss: 3.84

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is down (0.88%) at 2021.72, Silver is down (1.32%) at 22.38, Palladium is down (1.73%) at 930.14, Platinum is down (0.01%) at 893.52, Brent Crude Oil is down (0.49%) at 76.42, WTI Crude Oil down (0.65%) at 71.81 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(GBP) Composite PMI (Jan) Forecast 53.8, Previous 53.4 at 4:30. (USD) Service PMI (Jan) Forecast 52.9, Previous 51.4 at 09:45. (USD) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan) Forecast 52.0, Previous 50.6 at 10:00. (AUD) Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) Forecast 0.4%, Previous 1.6% at 19:30. (AUD) RBA Interest Rate Decision (Feb) Forecast 4.35%, Previous 4.35% at 22:30.