. Daily Commodity Analysis - Oil Uncertainty as US Considers Venezuela Sanction Easing, Gold Stagnates

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil Uncertainty as US Considers Venezuela Sanction Easing, Gold Stagnates

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil Uncertainty as US Considers Venezuela Sanction Easing, Gold Stagnates

17 Oct 2023

Introduction:

In the provided content, oil prices stabilized on hopes that the United States might ease sanctions on Venezuela, a major oil producer. Additionally, ongoing efforts by Washington to de-escalate the Israel-Hamas conflict are impacting the market. Gold prices remain in a tight range, influenced by Middle East tensions and increased US Treasury yields. Investors are awaiting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for guidance on interest rates. In the broader commodity market, natural gas prices are falling, and silver (XAG/USD) is influenced by Fed policy and Middle East unrest.

Brent Crude Oil:

Oil steadies on hopes US will ease sanctions on Venezuela.

After falling more than $1 on Monday, oil prices stabilised on Tuesday as investors hoped that the United States would lift sanctions against Venezuela, a major producer, and as Washington increased efforts to stop Israel and Hamas from escalating their conflict.

The U.S. government has been seeking ways to increase the flow of oil to world markets to alleviate high prices. But any real oil output increase by Venezuela will take time due to lack of recent investments.

Due to concerns that the Middle East crisis would worsen, both oil benchmarks saw sharp increases last week. Brent, the global benchmark, rose 7.5%, marking its largest weekly gain since February.

Technical Overview :

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 89.01| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 88.02| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 88.59| Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 89.40 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 87.46| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 89.11| Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 55.01 | Buying Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 75.01| Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 89.26 | R2: 94.80
  • S1: 85.16| S2: 81.07

Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 90.54 | Take Profit: 94.80 | Stop Loss: 87.73.

Gold:

Prior to Biden’s trip to Israel, the price of gold remains in a tight range.

As investors process the tensions in the Middle East, the price of gold swings in a limited range. Because US Treasury yields have increased, Fed policymakers view interest rates as adequately restrictive.

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades directionless ahead of US President Joe Biden’s visit to Israel amid deepening Middle East tensions and the speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, which is expected to provide significant guidance on interest rates. Investors hope that Powell will Favour a neutral monetary policy and join other Fed officials who recently said higher bond yields are sufficient to tame inflation.

Technical Overview :

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 1918.02 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 1893.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 1880.97 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 1918.86 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 1888.09 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 1863.74 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 68.36 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 81.6| Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 1925.00 | R2: 1954.95
  • S1: 1905.44| S2: 1882.82

Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy : 1932.33 | Take Profit: 1954.95 | Stop Loss: 1918.88.

Elsewhere In the Commodity Market.

Rising open interest and volume coincided with Monday’s natural gas price fall, suggesting that further retracements for the commodity are likely in store soon. XAG/USD sways between Fed policy and Middle East Unrest.

Gold up (0.16%) at 1922.40, Silver up (0.32%) at 22.67, Palladium down (0.52%) at 1138.00, Platinum down (0.01%) at 893.00, Brent Crude Oil up (0.39%) at 90.00, WTI Crude Oil down (0.36%) at 85.57 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(USD) Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.6% at 18:00.

(USD) Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.6% at 18:00.