. Daily Commodity Analysis - Oil up, gold over $2,020, silver steady.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil up, gold over $2,020, silver steady.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil up, gold over $2,020, silver steady.

20 Feb 2024

Introduction

WTI crude oil rises to approximately $78.30 amidst Houthi Group strikes on Red Sea shipping vessels, elevating concerns about Middle East supply disruption. Meanwhile, Natural Gas faces a three-year low due to soft European demand. Gold gains momentum near $2,020 amid escalating Middle East tensions and economic uncertainties, with FOMC Minutes in focus. Silver consolidates above $22.45, showing a potential mean reversion towards $23.90 and $25.00.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

WTI moves higher to around $78.30 as the Houthi Group strikes on shipping vessels in the Red Sea.

WTI price edges higher on escalated threat over supply disruption from the Middle East. Iran-led Houthis targeted Belize-flagged, British-registered cargo vessel Rubymar. European Union has deployed warships and early warning systems to safeguard shipping lanes in the Red Sea. Saudi Aramco is considering issuing a bond of up to maturity of 50 years in 2024. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price retraces its recent losses registered on Monday. WTI price trades higher around $78.30 per barrel during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The escalated threat of the oil supply disruption from the Middle East is supporting the prices of Crude oil.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 77.4693 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 76.4050 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 75.6216 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 77.3102 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 76.3290 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 74.0781 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 59.0690 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 92.0512 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 78.6054 R2 : 80.9659
  • S1 : 70.9639 S2 : 68.6034

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 77.00 | Take Profit: 79.60 | Stop Loss: 75.50

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas in the red on soft-demand outlook in Europe.

Natural Gas snaps below recent multi-year low and prints new three-year low. Traders are sending Gas lower on tepid demand outweighing rising tensions. The US Dollar Index is flat above pivotal support with the US closed for the holiday. Natural Gas (XNG/USD) is trading around $1.55 and is unable to flare up after Iran accused Israel of blowing up one of its key vital Gas pipelines last week. The New York Times reported that Iran had proof of Israel being behind the attack. Meanwhile, Israel itself is ramping up pressure on Gaza and Hamas by issuing a demand to give up the last hostages before the Shabbat in two weeks, or another massive ground offensive will be rolled out.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.7812 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.9873 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.2860 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.7821 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2.0415 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2.3641 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 21.5536 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 3.1080 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 3.0654 R2 : 3.3340
  • S1 : 2.1960 S2 : 1.9274

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.72 | Take Profit: 1.49 | Stop Loss: 1.88

GOLD

XAU/USD gains momentum near $2,020, FOMC Minutes eyed.

Gold price attracts some buyers around $2,020 in Tuesday’s early European session. Higher-than-expected US inflation figures fuelled speculation of a delay in the Fed’s move towards monetary policy easing. The rising Middle East geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties lift the yellow metal. The FOMC Meeting Minutes will be the highlight of this week. Gold price gains momentum for the fourth straight day during the early European session on Tuesday. The yellow metal trades in positive territory despite the rebound of the US Dollar (USD) and higher bond yields. Trading activity was low on Monday as markets closed in the US. However, investors will take more cues from the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday about the outlook for US interest rates. At press time, the gold price is trading at $2,020, adding 0.09% on the day.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2016.4634 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2021.1584 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2021.0519 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2015.4844 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2023.5325 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2033.5864 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 49.3643 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 40.7990 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2069.3814 R2 : 2087.5486
  • S1 : 2010.5686 S2 : 1992.4014

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 2022.73 | Take Profit: 2040.97 | Stop Loss: 2012.85

SILVER

Silver faces short-term resistance but consolidates over the longer term.

The weekly silver chart indicates a consistent pattern where prices consistently find support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the major 2021 to 2022 decline, marked by the solid red line at $22.45. Despite recent attempts to close below this crucial level, the week concludes without success. A broader perspective suggests that silver prices might be undergoing a more extended mean reversion towards $23.90 and potentially $25.00.Silver’s rise can be attributed to the lower U.S. Treasury yields and a weakening U.S. Dollar in early Tuesday trades.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 22.97 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 22.75 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 22.69 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 23.07 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 22.75 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 22.69 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 56.02 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 58.27 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 23.34 R2 : 24.05
  • S1 : 22.77 S2 : 22.06

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 22.81 | Take Profit: 23.54 | Stop Loss: 22.46

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is up (0.17%) at 2021.09, Silver is down (0.02%) at 22.98, Palladium is down (1.11%) at 941.18, Platinum is up (0.19%) at 899.73, Brent Crude Oil is down (0.04%) at 83.52, WTI Crude Oil down (0.10%) at 78.38 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(GBP) BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 05:15. (CAD) Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) Previous –0.5% at 08:30. (CAD) CPI (MoM) (Jan) Forecast 0.4%, Previous –0.3% at 08:30. (NZD) PPI Input (QoQ) (Q4) Forecast 0.4%, Previous 1.2% at 16:45.