. Daily Commodity Analysis - Stay ahead with latest commodity insights.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Stay ahead with latest commodity insights.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Stay ahead with latest commodity insights.

27 Mar 2024

Introduction

WTI struggles below $80.85 amid a strengthening US Dollar, while concerns over Russian supply disruptions linger. Geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine, could bolster WTI prices despite refinery disruptions in Russia following Ukrainian drone attacks. Eyes are on the US PCE data for further market cues. Meanwhile, wheat futures decline amidst cautious trading, and gold remains range-bound amid dollar strength. Copper prices dip as concerns over Chinese demand persist despite positive industrial profit data.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

WTI holds below $80.85 on a firmer US Dollar, as markets weigh Russian supply woes.

WTI trades in negative territory near $80.85 amid the firmer USD. The prospect of ongoing geopolitical tensions could lift the WTI prices. OPEC+ is set to affirm its production cuts policy amid tensions in the Middle East and Russia. Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $80.85 on Wednesday. WTI prices edge lower amid the modest rebound of US Dollar (USD) and mixed reaction to the loss of Russian refinery capacity after recent Ukrainian n attacks. Refinery disruptions in Russia caused by Ukrainian drone attacks raised concern over global oil supply. Analysts forecast that these disruptions affected around 12% of Russia’s total oil processing capacity. The geopolitical factors are likely to play a key role in WTI prices and the escalating tension in both the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine might lift the black gold. Market players will closely watch the US February Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data, due on Friday.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 80.9990 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 80.2102 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 78.4386 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 81.5153 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 80.1081 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 77.8344 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 55.4328 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 64.7557 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 79.6511 R2 : 81.6205
  • S1 : 73.2755 S2 : 71.3061

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 80.20 | Take Profit: 83.13 | Stop Loss: 78.58

WHEAT

Wheat Futures Fall as Short-Covering Momentum Sputters.

Wheat for May delivery fell 2.2% to $5.43 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Tuesday, with traders staying tentative ahead of Thursday’s USDA reports and unwilling to press any major wave of short-covering. Russian wheat export prices have remained low compared to other origins, which was an outside source of pressure on CBOT wheat futures. The evaluation of how moisture late in Brazil’s winter planting season is impacting corn there led to additional pressure on CBOT corn. Traders turned their attention to U.S. planting and grain stock data due from the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 553.43 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 555.59 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 575.54 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 556.37 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 554.24 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 572.74 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 38.3 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 7.1 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 574.70 R2 : 610.72
  • S1 : 544.68 S2 : 500.08

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 566.12 | Take Profit: 530.10 | Stop Loss: 592.71

GOLD

Gold prices range-bound as the dollar reigns before more rate cues.

Gold prices kept to a tight range in Asian trade on Wednesday, as an overnight rebound was largely stalled by strength in the dollar before more key signals on inflation and interest rates. The yellow metal tumbled from record highs over the past two weeks as dovish signals from other major central banks kept traders largely biased toward the dollar. The dollar index rose slightly in Asian trade and was in sight of a one-month high. Gold pressured by strong dollar ahead of PCE data, Fed comments While the gold prices marked some gains in overnight trade, any more upward momentum was dulled by persistent strength in the dollar.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2168.4335 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2146.1155 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2097.7565 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2169.6103 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2153.2801 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2076.4087 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 67.2339 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 45.0150 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2062.3465 R2 : 2081.5168
  • S1 : 2000.2868 S2 : 1981.1165

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2180.89 | Take Profit: 2196.96 | Stop Loss: 2170.92

COPPER

Copper prices creep lower as China’s outlook remains weak.

Among industrial metals, copper prices extended a fall from 11-month highs on Wednesday, as sentiment towards top importer China remained largely weak. Data on Wednesday showed Chinese industrial profits rose 10.2% in the first two months of 2024. However a bulk of this increase was driven by a lower base for comparison from the prior year. Optimism over Chinese demand also soured in recent sessions as inventory data showed Chinese copper stockpiles remained strong so far in 2024. This offset hopes of a copper supply shock after several major Chinese refiners signaled plans to reduce production.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.006 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.016 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 3.984 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.002 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.038 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 3.982 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 45.01 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 11.82 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.023 R2 : 4.124
  • S1 : 3.920 S2 : 3.797

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 3.973 | Take Profit: 3.889 | Stop Loss: 4.035

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is up (0.04%) at 2179.14, Silver is up (0.23%) at 24.50, Palladium is down (0.32%) at 991.30, Platinum is up (0.44%) at 906.45, Brent Crude Oil is down (0.92%) at 84.23, WTI Crude Oil down (0.93%) at 80.83 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(NZD) ANZ Business Confidence (Mar) Previous 34.7 at 17:30. (USD) Crude Oil Inventories Forecast –1.000M, Previous –1.952M at 20:00