. Daily Commodity Analysis - US Retail Sales Boost Gas, Copper Uncertainty Amid Chinese Data

Daily Commodity Analysis – US Retail Sales Boost Gas, Copper Uncertainty Amid Chinese Data

Daily Commodity Analysis – US Retail Sales Boost Gas, Copper Uncertainty Amid Chinese Data

18 Oct 2023

Introduction:

In the commodity section Strong US retail sales have breathed life back into natural gas prices, defying earlier forecasts from US banks. As the greenback gains strength alongside retail sales, this report delves into the intricate market dynamics and previews the potential impact of upcoming Chinese economic data on copper prices.

Natural Gas:

Natural Gas prices are back in green as US retail sales come in strong.

With strong US retail sales, natural gas prices are once again rising. Along with the US Retail Sales rising, the US Dollar is trading firmer.

Natural gas prices are rising once again thanks to positive US retail sales data. Not only were the results encouraging, but they also exceeded expectations and showed an increase over the previous month’s figures. These figures go counter to what two US banks said in their earnings announcements, which were made before to the US opening bell.

In the meantime, the US Dollar (USD), which was previously in the red, is now back in the green. The reason was the US bank earnings combined with the additional caution that was provided for US consumers, as was previously noted.

Technical Overview :

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 3.06| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 3.12| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 3.16| Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 3.05| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 3.12| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 3.26| Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 31.87 | Selling Zone | Bearish

Stochastic Oscillator: 59.09| Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 3.20 | R2: 3.43
  • S1: 3.04| S2: 2.80

Overall Sentiment: Bearish | Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 2.98 | Take Profit: 2.80 | Stop Loss: 3.12.

Copper:

Copper slide, China GDP in focus.

Tuesday saw the industrial metals market retreat in anticipation of this week’s crucial Chinese economic data, with copper prices among them reversing recent advances.

Copper futures closed New York trading down 0.1% at $3.5820 a pound.

The world’s largest copper importer is expected to see further slowdown in growth when China releases its third-quarter GDP figures on Wednesday.

Industrial production data for September- also due on Wednesday- is expected to show continued weakness in the sector, which accounts for a bulk of Chinese copper demand.

Technical Overview :

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 3.60 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 3.58 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 3.60 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 3.60 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 3.58 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 3.60 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 57.88 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 96.5| Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 3.62 | R2: 3.76
  • S1: 3.54| S2: 3.45

Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy : 3.65 | Take Profit: 3.76 | Stop Loss: 3.60.

Elsewhere In the Commodity Market.

Gold steadies ahead of China Q3 GDP data, more Fed cues. Oil prices surged nearly 2% on Wednesday as tension escalated in the Middle East.

Gold up (1.17%) at 1945.72, Silver up (1.82%) at 23.20, Palladium up (0.16%) at 1139.00, Platinum up (0.84%) at 904.50, Brent Crude Oil up (3.17%) at 92.75, WTI Crude Oil up (3.48%) at 88.41 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(CNY) GDP (YoY) (Q3) Actual 4.9%, Forecast 4.4%, Previous 6.3% at 07:30.

(EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 14:30.