. Daily Commodity Analysis - Wheat Dips on USDA Surprise, Gold Sees Weekly Loss.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Wheat Dips on USDA Surprise, Gold Sees Weekly Loss.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Wheat Dips on USDA Surprise, Gold Sees Weekly Loss.

10 Nov 2023

Introduction:

In the commodity market, wheat futures anticipate their largest daily drop in a month, influenced by a heightened U.S. supply outlook. Meanwhile, gold faces a 2% weekly loss due to a decline in price, hampered by a hawkish tone from the Fed. The safe-haven demand for gold also weakens amid easing concerns over the Israel-Hamas conflict. Oil prices set for third weekly decline.

WHEAT:

Wheat futures eye biggest daily loss a month as USDA raises U.S. supply outlook.

On Thursday, wheat futures saw a drop, set to mark their most significant single-day percentage decline in approximately four weeks. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report increased its forecast for U.S. wheat supply in the 2023/2024 marketing year by 10 million bushels, totalling to 145 million bushels.

Jake Hanley, Teucrium’s managing director and senior portfolio strategist, pointed out that the surplus of wheat in Russia, combined with their consistent success in exporting through the Black Sea, is expected to sustain downward pressure on wheat prices.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 593.84| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 609.86| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 634.84| Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 592.25| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 611.78| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 642.87| Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 31.05 | Selling Zone | Bearish

Stochastic Oscillator: 33.1| Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 612.67 | R2: 639.35
  • S1: 593.71| S2: 571.95

Overall Sentiment: Bearish | Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 589.50 | Take Profit: 571.95 | Stop Loss: 602.84.

GOLD:

Gold price slide, set for 2% weekly loss amid hawkish Fed speak.

The gold price is facing challenges in leveraging the prior day’s moderate recovery from the $1,944 level, staying below $1,960 on Friday, despite trading above a three-week low. The 10-year US yield, sustaining above 4.6% after Thursday’s bounce, is constraining the upside potential for XAU/USD.

Gold prices experienced a slight decline on Friday, heading towards significant weekly losses following a series of hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials. These remarks prompted a reconsideration of expectations for a halt in further interest rate hikes.

Reduced safe haven demand, amid decreasing worries related to the Israel-Hamas conflict, also kept the interest in gold relatively subdued.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 1955.98 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 1965.47 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 1965.58 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 1953.97 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 1972.56 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 1979.49 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 37.58 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic Oscillator: 31.94| Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 1975.56 | R2: 2000.27
  • S1: 1952.90| S2: 1925.44

Overall Sentiment: Bearish | Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 1947.41 | Take Profit: 1925.44 | Stop Loss: 1963.20.

Elsewhere In the Commodity Market.

Friday saw a marginal increase in oil prices, yet they’re poised to decline for the third consecutive week. Copper is on track for a week of losses due to deteriorating sentiment in China.

Gold down (0.23%) at 1953.62, Silver down (0.2%) at 22.57, Palladium down (3.07%) at 962.50, Platinum down (0.24%) at 855.43, Brent Crude Oil up (0.61%) at 80.50, WTI Crude Oil up (0.57%) at 76.14 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(USD) Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 00:30.

(GBP) GDP (QoQ) (Q3) Actual 0.0%, Forecast –0.1%, Previous 0.2% at 12:30.

(GBP) GDP (MoM) (Sep) Actual 0.2%, Forecast 0.0%, Previous 0.2% at 12:30.

(GBP) Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Sep) Actual 0.1%, Forecast 0.3%, Previous-0.8% at 12:30.

(EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 18:00.