. Daily Commodity Analysis - Wheat Futures Soar Amid Global Market Surprises.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Wheat Futures Soar Amid Global Market Surprises.

Daily Commodity Analysis – Wheat Futures Soar Amid Global Market Surprises.

30 Nov 2023

Introduction:

In the commodities market, Wheat futures see a 2.5% surge in March contracts, reaching $5.86 1/4 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade as traders continue short covering. The short side of the global wheat market is deemed overcrowded. Meanwhile, copper prices rise amid weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data, with a potential demand decrease. Yet, tightening market conditions due to significant mine closures in Peru and Panama counteract this notion. In other commodities, gold pauses near a seven-month high, and oil holds steady ahead of the OPEC+ meeting amidst weak demand indicators.

Wheat Futures:

Wheat futures are up as traders keep covering shorts.

On Wednesday, March wheat futures climbed by 2.5% to reach $5.86 1/4 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. This marks an extension of the short-covering rally initiated on Tuesday.

The short-covering trend in grains persisted for another day, as highlighted by the Agre source, with wheat experiencing notable activity.

The firm expressed in a note that the short side of global wheat markets has become excessively crowded.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 593.84| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 609.86| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 634.84| Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 592.25| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 611.78| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 642.87| Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 31.05| Selling Zone | Bearish

Stochastic Oscillator: 33.1| Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 613.37 | R2: 636.54
  • S1: 593.01| S2: 571.25

Overall Sentiment: Bearish | Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell 586.69 | Take Profit: 571.25 | Stop Loss: 597.92.

Copper:

Copper advances despite weak China data as market conditions tighten.

Copper prices in the industrial metals sector experienced a modest increase on Thursday, disregarding below-expectation economic data from China, a leading copper importer.

Data from the purchasing managers index revealed that Chinese manufacturing activity contracted more than anticipated in November, signalling an extended decline amid diminishing export demand. This downturn suggests a potential reduction in copper demand.

However, this idea was counteracted by indications of constrained copper markets due to significant mine closures in Peru and Panama. These closures are anticipated to restrict copper supplies in the upcoming months.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 3.795 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 3.779 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 3.742| Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 3.800 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 3.779| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 3.726| Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 55.67 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 68.81| Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 3.805 | R2: 3.896
  • S1: 3.751| S2: 3.685

Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion:  Stop Buy: 3.830 | Take Profit: 3.896 | Stop Loss: 3.793.

Elsewhere In the Commodity Market.

Gold prices take a breather near a seven-month high as attention shifts to PCE inflation data. Oil remains stable as the market watches the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and observes weak demand indicators.

Gold up (0.03%) at 2044.87, Silver up (0.34%) at 25.09, Palladium down (1.04%) at 1019.00, Platinum up (0.77%) at 938.66, Brent Crude Oil up (0.18%) at 83.04, WTI Crude Oil up (0.31%) at 78.10 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(CNY) Manufacturing PMI (Nov) Actual 49.4, Forecast 49.7, Previous 49.5 at 07:00.

(EUR) German Unemployment Change (Nov) Forecast 22k, Previous 30K at 14:25.

(EUR) CPI (YoY) (Nov) Forecast 2.7%, Previous 2.9% at 15:30.

(CAD) GDP (MoM) (Sep) Forecast 0.0%, Previous 0.0% at 19:00.

(USD) Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 220K, Previous 209K at 19:00.

(EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 19:00.

(USD) Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Oct) Forecast –2.0%, Previous 1.1% at 20:30.