. Daily Commodity Analysis - WTI crude oil steady above $79.00, Natural Gas rallies.

Daily Commodity Analysis – WTI crude oil steady above $79.00, Natural Gas rallies.

Daily Commodity Analysis – WTI crude oil steady above $79.00, Natural Gas rallies.

03 May 2024

Introduction

WTI crude oil holds steady above $79.00 in anticipation of US NFP data, rebounding from a seven-week low. Yet, prospects are tempered by rising US crude inventories and dimming hopes for Fed rate cuts. Geopolitical calm in the Middle East and potential US-Iran tensions remain in focus, while natural gas and gold prices await key data releases amid market uncertainty. Copper sees mild losses after a five-week rally.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

WTI holds above $79.00 ahead of US NFP data.

Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $79.00 on Friday. The black gold rebounds modestly from a seven-week low. However, the upside might be limited due to rising crude inventories in the United States and fading hopes for rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). On Wednesday, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that US crude inventories for the week ending April 26 increased by 7.256 million barrels from a 6.368 million barrel draw in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decrease by 2.3 million barrels. This figure registered the highest since June 2023, adding to concerns about a weakening oil demand. Furthermore, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the prospect of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza lead to narrow trading in crude oil prices. However, market players will monitor the developments surrounding geopolitical risks. Any rising tension might raise the fear of oil supply disruption in the region and boost the black gold price.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 81.2632 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 82.2037 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 81.5226 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 81.7048 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 83.2813 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 81.8241 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 34.5757 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 6.5593 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 85.9270 R2 : 87.5646
  • S1 : 80.6256 S2 : 78.9880

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 80.34 | Take Profit : 77.28 | Stop Loss : 82.63

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas Futures Rally Back Above $2 as Freeport Flows Strengthen.

Buoyed by higher volumes flowing to a major export terminal and continued production weakness, natural gas futures were rallying back on Thursday. The Natural Gas market is currently experiencing mixed signals. On one hand, the demand for natural gas is generally low, expected to remain so over the next week, except for sporadic warmth in Texas and the South. Given the current dynamics, the market outlook appears cautiously optimistic. The anticipated increase in LNG export demand and upcoming infrastructure improvements suggest a potential stabilization in natural gas prices.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.7977 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.7729 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.8186 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.8045 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.7626 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.7428 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 56.7291 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 75.9649 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.8667 R2 : 1.9349
  • S1 : 1.6459 S2 : 1.5777

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 1.97 | Take Profit : 2.92 | Stop Loss : 1.80

GOLD

Gold prices tread water as rate fears grow ahead of nonfarm payrolls.

Gold prices moved little in Asian trade on Friday as markets remained averse to the yellow metal before key U.S. payrolls data, while the prospect of high for longer interest rates put gold on course for weekly losses. The yellow metal was nursing a sharp fall from record highs over the past two weeks, as safe haven demand dried up and pressure from U.S. interest rates came back into play. The yellow metal saw some price relief as the dollar tumbled in overnight trade. But this only served to limit recent losses in gold. Gold down about 1% this week, nonfarm payrolls awaited Spot prices were down about 1% this week- their second straight week in red. Losses in bullion came as the outlook for prices was dulled by the prospect of U.S. rates remaining high for longer. Nonfarm payrolls data due later on Friday is expected to further factor into the outlook for rates. Any persistent signs of strength in the labor market gives the Fed more headroom to keep rates high for longer.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2318.0236 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2313.4343 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2248.6532 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2317.2874 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2340.3606 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2237.9202 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 50.0548 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 72.22 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2392.8718 R2 : 2440.8082
  • S1 : 2237.6882 S2 : 2189.7518

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Stop Buy : 2307.29 | Take Profit : 2328.54 | Stop Loss : 2294.27

COPPER

Copper prices head for weekly losses after 5-week rally .

Among industrial metals, copper prices were flat on Friday, and were headed for mild weekly losses as fears of U.S. rates sparked some profit-taking. But prices still remained in sight of recent two-year peaks. Three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.2% to $9,827.0 a ton, while one-month copper futures fell slightly to $4.5012 a pound. The two contracts were set to lose between 1% and 1.5% this week after rallying for five consecutive weeks, on expectations of tighter supplies.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.53 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.53 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.45 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.53 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.56 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.46 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 51.76 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 10.41 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.57 R2 : 4.69
  • S1 : 4.42 S2 : 4.25

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Stop Sell : 4.511 | Take Profit : 4.378 | Stop Loss : 4.623

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold down (0.01%) at 2300.25, Silver down (0.62%) at 26.50, Palladium up (0.02%) at 935.82, Platinum up (1.81%) at 966.34, Brent Crude Oil down (0.05%) at 83.63, WTI Crude Oil down (0.15%) at 78.90 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(GBP) Composite PMI (Apr) Forecast 54.0, Previous 52.8 at 14:00. (GBP) Service PMI (Apr) Forecast 54.9, Previous 53.1 at 14:00. (USD) Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Apr) Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.3% at 18:00. (USD) Unemployment Rate (Apr) Forecast 3.8%, Previous 3.8% at 18:00. (USD) Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr) Forecast 238K, Previous 303K at 18:00. (USD) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr) Forecast 52.0, Previous 51.4 at 19:30.