. Daily Commodity Analysis - WTI Gains, Corn Falls, Gold Awaits Data

Daily Commodity Analysis – WTI Gains, Corn Falls, Gold Awaits Data

Daily Commodity Analysis – WTI Gains, Corn Falls, Gold Awaits Data

09 May 2024

Introduction

WTI, the US crude oil benchmark, edges upwards to approximately $79.00, fueled by a surprise decline in US crude stocks. Concurrently, corn futures witness a decline, with July delivery slipping 1.7% to $4.59 1/4 a bushel as traders brace for the USDA’s Friday report amidst weather uncertainties. Meanwhile, gold prices remain buoyant amid awaited US economic data and Fed remarks, though hindered by a stronger US Dollar. Silver shows resilience, bouncing back despite pressure from rising US Treasury bond yields. Traders eagerly anticipate upcoming catalysts.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

WTI posts modest gains around $79.00 on US crude stock draw.

Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $78.95 on Thursday. The black gold recovers losses after a surprise crude stock draw in the United States. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday that crude inventories for the week ending May 3 declined by 1.4 million barrels to 459.5 million barrels from 7.3 million barrels built in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decrease by 1.4 million barrels. A decline in oil inventories might lift the WTI prices as it’s typically a sign that demand is increasing. The United States expects that discussions on a Gaza ceasefire will be able to close the gap between Israel and Hamas. The US Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns visited Israel on Wednesday and spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, per Reuters. The easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might weigh on the WTI prices.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 79.9259 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 81.0661 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 81.1053 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 79.9639 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 81.8291 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 81.8984 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 40.5514 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 22.5377 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 85.9330 R2 : 87.5706
  • S1 : 80.6316 S2 : 78.9940

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 79.4080 | Take Profit : 78.9940 | Stop Loss : 89.7813

CORN

Corn Futures Drop as Caution Rules Ahead of WASDE.

Corn for July delivery fell 1.7% to $4.59 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade in previous session, falling as traders get their books in order ahead of the Friday USDA report. Risk mitigation because of potential inclement weather appears to be on pause this week, with traders unsure of how the USDA will characterize the current status of U.S. crops in its next WASDE report Friday. Farmers are taking advantage of a recent uptick in prices to lessen their grain piles in storage ahead of the start of the new crop.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.4423 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.3918 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.3484 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.4337 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.3650 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.3021 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 59.6507 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 3.01 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.3798 R2 : 4.4292
  • S1 : 4.2202 S2 : 4.1708

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 453.22 | Take Profit : 471.17 | Stop Loss : 443.10

GOLD

Gold price gains traction, investors await US data, Fedspeak for fresh catalyst.

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with a positive bias on Thursday amid the absence of top-tier economic data releases at mid-week. However, multiple headwinds, such as the firmer US Dollar (USD) and the hawkish comments from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) are likely to cap the upside of the precious metal in the near term. On the other hand, the growth in global gold demand was mainly driven by strong over-the-counter market investment, persistent central bank purchasing, and rising demand from Asian buyers, including China and India, per the WGC’s most recent report. Furthermore, the risk-averse environment and the uncertainties surrounding geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might boost traditional safe-haven assets like gold. Gold traders await some fresh catalysts. The US weekly Initial Jobless Claims is due on Thursday. Also, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, in the dovish wing of the US central bank, is set to speak later in the day. The dovish remarks from Fed officials might cap the downside of the gold price for the time being.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2315.7387 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2313.8016 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2258.4672 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2314.0170 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2333.6442 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2260.3717 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 51.9066 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 39.34 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2392.8718 R2 : 2440.8082
  • S1 : 2237.6882 S2 : 2189.7518

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 2313.71 | Take Profit : 2307.65 | Stop Loss : 2317.12

SILVER

XAG/USD recovers after testing $27.00 psychological level.

Silver rebounds from $27.00, rising 0.94% amid increased buying interest.Remains bullish, trading between Fibonacci levels of $24.33 and $29.78.To gain further, needs to surpass 38.2% Fibonacci level at $27.70, targeting $28.00 and beyond.Silver price registers modest gains despite rising US Treasury bond yields and a strong US Dollar. The grey metal dipped to $27.00 but climbed as buyers stepped in. Traders await some fresh catalysts. The US weekly Initial Jobless Claims is due on Thursday.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 27.29 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 27.15 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 27.16 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 27.35 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 26.95 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 27.25 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 60.08 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 93.49 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 27.67 R2 : 28.99
  • S1 : 26.68 S2 : 25.75

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Stop Buy : 27.84 | Take Profit : 28.99 | Stop Loss : 27.07

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold up (0.09%) at 2310.19, Silver up (0.94%) at 27.58, Palladium up (0.18%) at 953.70, Platinum up (0.46%) at 979.46, Brent Crude Oil up (0.35%) at 83.97, WTI Crude Oil up (0.31%) at 79.41 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(GBP) BoE MPC Meeting Minutes at 16:30. (GBP) Interest Rate Decision (Apr) Forecast 5.25%, Previous 5.25% at 16:30. (GBP) BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 17:00. (USD) Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 1790K, Previous 1774K at 18:00. (GBP) Boe Gov Bailey Speaks at 18:45.