. Daily Commodity Analysis - WTI near $80, gold pressured, silver surges.

Daily Commodity Analysis – WTI near $80, gold pressured, silver surges.

Daily Commodity Analysis – WTI near $80, gold pressured, silver surges.

14 Mar 2024

Introduction

WTI Crude Surges Near $79.50 Amid Supply Concerns: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices rally on reduced US stockpiles and fears of supply disruptions due to Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries. The EIA reports a surprising decline in US Crude Oil Stocks Change for the first time in seven weeks. Meanwhile, corn futures dip on technical trading, while gold struggles amid renewed USD strength, awaiting US economic data. Silver corrects to $25 as uncertainty looms ahead of US PPI and Retail Sales reports, with market expectations for Fed rate cuts rising to 69%.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

WTI extends gains to near $79.50 on decreased US stockpiles, fear over supply disruptions.

WTI price continues its upward momentum after a decrease in US stockpiles Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Russian refineries raised concerns over supply disruptions. EIA US Crude Oil Stocks Change declined for the time in seven weeks. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices continue their upward trend for the second consecutive session, climbing to nearly $79.50, up by approximately 0.30% per barrel during Thursday’s Asian trading hours. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), US Crude Oil Stocks Change decreased by 1.536 million barrels for the week ending March 8, contradicting the anticipated rise of 1.338 million barrels. This decline was the first in seven weeks.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 78.8861 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 78.2935 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 77.0710 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 78.9075 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 78.5178 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 76.1580 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 60.7209 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 69.9700 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 79.6511 R2 : 81.6205
  • S1 : 73.2755 S2 : 71.3061

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 79.89 | Take Profit: 82.13 | Stop Loss: 78.58

CORN

Corn futures tick lower on technical trading.

Benchmark corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) ticked lower on Wednesday, following a mixed session driven by technical trading, analysts said. CBOT May corn (CK24) settled down 1/2 cent to $4.41-1/4 per bushel. A lack of fresh demand and market-moving news is keeping the market relatively stable, traders said. The shifts in acreage come as grower incomes are expected to decline this year as corn, soybean, and wheat CBOT futures have dropped to their lowest levels in more than three years Corn futures also faced pressure from reports of hot, dry weather in Brazil that could deplete the country’s second corn crop, and Brazilian crop agency CONAB lowered its projections, traders said.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.2577 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.2437 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.3412 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.2427 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 4.1829 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 4.3261 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 28.09 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 5.09 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.3863 R2 : 4.5007
  • S1 : 4.0157 S2 : 3.9013

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy: 491.42 | Take Profit: 461.39 | Stop Loss: 512.28

GOLD

Gold price remains depressed amid renewed USD buying, looks to US data for fresh impetus.

Gold price fails to build on the previous day’s move up and meets with some supply on Thursday. A modest USD uptick and the risk-on mood turn out to be key factors weighing on the XAU/USD. The uncertainty over the Fed’s rate-cut path and geopolitical tensions should help limit the downside. Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s recovery move from the $2,150 area, or the weekly low, and comes under some selling pressure on Thursday. A hot US inflation print fueled speculations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may delay interest rate cuts. This, in turn, remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which assists the US Dollar (USD) to regain some positive traction and turns out to be a key factor exerting downward pressure on the non-yielding yellow metal. The markets, however, are still pricing in a greater chance that the US central bank will start cutting interest rates in June, which might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2143.7575 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2108.8465 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2066.2614 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2149.5635 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2088.7532 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2051.7571 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 73.2921 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 84.1419 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2062.3465 R2 : 2081.5168
  • S1 : 2000.2868 S2 : 1981.1165

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2162.28 | Take Profit: 2175.92 | Stop Loss: 2156.62

SILVER

XAG/USD corrects to $25 amid uncertainty ahead of US PPI, Retail Sales data.

Silver price drops to $24.90 as investors turn anxious ahead of US data. The Core PPI data is foretasted to have softened on both a monthly and an annual basis. Market expectations for Fed rate cuts in June have increased to 69%. Silver price (XAG/USD) falls to $24.90 in Thursday’s European session after reaching a three-month high at $25.16. The white metal drops amid anxiety ahead of the United States Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales data for February, which will provide fresh cues about the inflation outlook. The Silver price witnessed significant buying interest on Wednesday as market expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing interest rates in the June meeting have improved again despite stubborn inflation data for February. The CME Fed watch tool shows that the chances of the Fed reducing interest rates have increased to 69%, which is close to pre-inflation data expectations.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 24.58 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 24.31 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 23.76 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 24.52 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 24.36 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 23.49 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 72.79 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 95.87 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 25.16 R2 : 25.92
  • S1 : 24.51 S2 : 23.56

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 24.59 | Take Profit: 25.28 | Stop Loss: 24.17

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is down (0.26%) at 2168.79, Silver is down (0.11%) at 24.95, Palladium is down (0.32%) at 1058.60, Platinum is up (0.27%) at 935.50, Brent Crude Oil is up (0.67%) at 84.59, WTI Crude Oil down (0.64%) at 80.25 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(USD) Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) Forecast 0.8%, Previous –0.8% at 08:30. (USD) Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) Forecast 0.5%, Previous –0.6% at 08:30. (USD) PPI (MoM) (Feb) Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.3% at 08:30. (CAD) Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Jan) Forecast 0.3%, Previous –0.7% at 09:30. (USD) Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 218K, Previous 217K at 08:30.