. Daily Commodity Analysis - WTI up, corn down, Fed awaits.

Daily Commodity Analysis – WTI up, corn down, Fed awaits.

Daily Commodity Analysis – WTI up, corn down, Fed awaits.

08 Feb 2024

Introduction

WTI oil price hovers around $74.20 per barrel, maintaining a positive bias after Israel rejects a ceasefire offer from Hamas. Crude oil prices are expected to continue their winning streak, supported by geopolitical developments. Meanwhile, gold struggles to gain traction amid uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s rate cut path, keeping traders cautious. Silver faces renewed selling pressure, hitting a two-week low and remaining vulnerable to further declines.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

WTI hovers around $74.20 with a positive bias after Israel rejected Hamas’s ceasefire offer.

WTI price could gain ground as Israel has dismissed Hamas’ offer for a ceasefire.EIA Crude Oil stockpiles came in at 5.521 million barrels against the expected 1.895 million barrels. The largest US oilfield, the Permian shale basin, is projected to experience its slowest annual growth since 2021. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price hovers around $74.20 per barrel during the Asian session on Thursday. Crude oil prices are expected to continue their winning streak for the fourth consecutive session. WTI price receives upward support as an obstacle emerges on a ceasefire in the Israel-Gaza conflict.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 74.2378 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 74.2128 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 74.6695 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 74.9197 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 74.4121 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 73.2419 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 49.7858 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 31.3964 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 78.6054 R2 : 80.9659
  • S1 : 70.9639 S2 : 68.6034

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 74.53 | Take Profit: 72.35 | Stop Loss: 76.10

CORN

New Lows for Corn Futures.

Front month corn prices are working 1 ¾ to 4 cents lower so far in midweek trading and setting new Life of Contract lows. Corn prices ended Tuesday with fractional to 4 cent losses after reversing from initial strength. March was the weakest. The U.S. Dollar Index remains strong, touching levels not seen since early December, however, it pulled back on Tuesday – currently, the dollar is another 193 points lower. Weekly EIA data will be released later this morning showing ethanol output for the week that ended Feb 2nd.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.3805 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.4269 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.5584 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.3906 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.4117 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 4.5736 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 31.2514 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 10.3510 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.6002 R2 : 4.6768
  • S1 : 4.3518 S2 : 4.2752

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell : 484.60 | Take Profit: 462.13 | Stop Loss: 500.55

GOLD

Gold price extends the range play as traders await more cues about the Fed’s rate cut path.

Gold price continues with its struggle to gain traction and remains confined in range. The uncertain Fed rate cut path is holding back traders from placing directional bets. Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its sideways consolidative price move during the Asian session on Thursday as traders remain uncertain about the timing and the likely pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. The markets seem convinced that the US central bank will eventually start cutting interest rates in May, if not March. This keeps the US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive, below the highest level in almost three months touched earlier this week, and acts as a tailwind for the precious metal.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2033.6303 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2033.1509 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 2024.8024 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2034.8519 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2031.1132 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2034.6013 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 49.7899 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 45.0121 | Neutral Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2069.3814 R2 : 2087.5486
  • S1 : 2010.5686 S2 : 1992.4014

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 2036.05 | Take Profit : 2057.60 | Stop Loss: 2024.52

SILVER

XAG/USD remains vulnerable to retest sub-$22.00 levels.

Silver meets with a fresh supply and touches over a two-week trough on Wednesday. The technical setup favors bearish traders and supports prospects for further losses. Any attempted recovery could be seen as a selling opportunity and fade rather quickly. Silver (XAG/USD) comes under some renewed selling pressure following the previous day’s modest uptick and drops to over a two-week low during the first half of the European session on Wednesday. The white metal currently trades near the $22.30 area, down just over 0.60% for the day, and seems vulnerable to slide further.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 22.27 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 22.61 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 22.65 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 22.28 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 22.61 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 22.65 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 39.77 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 9.06 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 22.45 R2 : 23.01
  • S1 : 21.83 S2 : 21.27

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 22.39 | Take Profit: 21.84 | Stop Loss: 22.73

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is down (0.13%) at 2032.34, Silver is up (0.22%) at 22.24, Palladium is up (0.37%) at 896.33, Platinum is up (0.16%) at 883.08, Brent Crude Oil is up (0.42%) at 79.54, WTI Crude Oil up (0.39%) at 74.15 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(AUD) Building Approvals (MoM) Actual –9.5%, Forecast –9.5%, Previous 1.6% at 06:00. (CNY) CPI (MoM) (Jan) Actual 0.3%, Forecast 0.4%, Previous 0.1% at 07:00. (USD) Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 221K, Previous 224K at 19:00.