. Daily Commodity Analysis - WTI up, gas low, gold teases, copper rebounds.

Daily Commodity Analysis – WTI up, gas low, gold teases, copper rebounds.

Daily Commodity Analysis – WTI up, gas low, gold teases, copper rebounds.

25 Mar 2024

Introduction

WTI crude oil marks gains above $81.00, climbing 0.37% amid a weaker US Dollar on Monday. The uptick follows OPEC+ voluntary production cuts and escalating Middle East tensions, potentially boosting WTI prices. Conversely, weaker economic growth in key nations could exert downward pressure. Meanwhile, US natural gas prices hit a one-week low due to milder weather forecasts and operational issues at LNG export plants. Gold prices rise in Asian trading but remain below recent highs amidst persistent dollar strength. Copper prices rebound after Friday’s losses but struggle to reach 11-month highs, as global supply concerns ease.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

WTI gains ground above the $81.00 mark on a weaker US Dollar.

WTI gains ground near 81.00, adding 0.37% on the day. OPEC+ voluntary production cuts and the Middle East geopolitical tensions might lift WTI prices. Weaker economic growth in major countries might drag WTI prices lower. Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $81.00 on Monday. WTI prices edge higher amid the softer US Dollar (USD) and the revised demand outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA forecast significantly less global oil production for the remainder of 2024 following the announcement that OPEC+ will extend the existing voluntary production cuts through the second quarter of 2024. The draw on stockpiles throughout 2024 might boost WTI prices. Furthermore, the uncertainties surrounding geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might increase prices further as many ships are rerouting to avoid the Red Sea, which lengthens the trip and increases costs.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 80.8197 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 79.9407 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 78.1863 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 80.9774 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 79.7982 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 77.4687 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 57.9211 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 58.4486 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 79.6511 R2 : 81.6205
  • S1 : 73.2755 S2 : 71.3061

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 80.43 | Take Profit: 83.13 | Stop Loss: 78.81

NATURAL GAS

US Natural Gas Prices Dip to One-Week Low.

Last week, U.S. natural gas futures experienced a 0.24% rise, despite straddling a one-week low. This downward trend was influenced by milder weather forecasts, abundant gas storage, and low gas flows to LNG export plants, primarily due to service outages at Freeport LNG’s Texas plant. Freeport LNG announced that two of its three liquefaction trains would be offline until May for testing and repairs. Consequently, front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped to their lowest close since March 15. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated that current gas stockpiles were about 41% above typical levels. This excess in storage, coupled with a decline in gas production, influenced the market. LSEG data showed a drop in gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states to 100.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in March, down from 104.1 bcfd in February.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.6974 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.7450 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.9499 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.6855 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.7526 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.9723 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 40.2730 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 13.0928 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2.2088 R2 : 2.3905
  • S1 : 1.6205 S2 : 1.4388

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.819 | Take Profit: 1.552 | Stop Loss: 1.982

GOLD

Gold prices rise but are pinned below record highs as dollar strength persists.

Gold prices advanced in Asian trade on Monday, but remained well below recent record highs as persistent strength in the dollar weighed heavily on metal markets. Anticipation of more cues on U.S. inflation and interest rates also kept investors heavily biased towards the dollar, although metal markets still saw some buying after steep losses on Friday. Bullion prices were trading well below record highs hit last week, where signals on interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve spurred strong gains in the yellow metal. But gold fell sharply from record highs towards the end of the week, as dovish signals from other central banks saw investors pivot largely into the dollar as the only high-yielding, low-risk currency.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2161.9948 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2138.2005 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2090.7323 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2166.3594 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 2138.2560 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2069.8001 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 64.1085 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 53.5541 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2062.3465 R2 : 2081.5168
  • S1 : 2000.2868 S2 : 1981.1165

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 2162.08 | Take Profit: 2178.15 | Stop Loss: 2151.91

COPPER

Copper prices rebound, but 11-month highs remain elusive.

Among industrial metals, copper prices rebounded sharply on Monday after steep losses in the prior session. Friday’s losses also kept copper prices trading well below the 11-month peaks hit last week. The red metal tumbled from 11-month highs last week after data on Friday suggested that global copper supplies may not be as tight as initially expected. Copper’s recent rally was driven chiefly by expectations of tighter supplies as major Chinese refiners signaled plans to cut production. But Chinese data on Friday showed copper inventories in the country surged to four-year highs in recent months, indicating that supplies in the world’s biggest copper importer remained robust.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 4.027 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.029 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 3.983 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 4.032 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 4.057 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 3.971 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 48.67 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 14.9 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 4.112 R2 : 4.233
  • S1 : 4.011 S2 : 3.882

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 4.022 | Take Profit: 3.887 | Stop Loss: 4.112

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold is up (0.04%) at 2165.68, Silver is up (0.06%) at 24.69, Palladium is up (1.85%) at 1003.04, Platinum is up (1.28%) at 899.09, Brent Crude Oil is up (0.53%) at 85.20, WTI Crude Oil up (0.57%) at 81.09 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(JPY) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 05:20. (EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 15:30. (USD) Building Permits Forecast 1.518M, Previous 1.489M at 17:30. (USD) New Homes Sales (Feb) Forecast 675K, Previous 661K at 19:30.