. Daily Commodity Analysis - XAU steadies, tensions rise, volatility looms.

Daily Commodity Analysis – XAU steadies, tensions rise, volatility looms.

Daily Commodity Analysis – XAU steadies, tensions rise, volatility looms.

17 Apr 2024

Introduction

XAU/USD maintains stability above $2,350 amidst market caution, hovering near $2,380 per troy ounce as traders await Israel’s response to Iran’s recent air strike. Israel’s war cabinet postpones its decision until Wednesday, heightening uncertainty. Meanwhile, Silver (XAG/USD) retreats to $28.09, influenced by technical patterns signaling potential downward movement and resistance at the $29 mark. Additionally, WTI crude oil struggles below $84.50 amid hawkish Fed remarks, despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The US Dollar Index (DXY) thrives as a safe haven, with investors adjusting to the narrative of prolonged or rising US interest rates amidst uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s policy outlook and ongoing geopolitical risks.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

XAU/USD remains steady above $2,350 amid market caution.

Gold price holds ground near $2,380 per troy ounce on Wednesday, hovering close to record highs as traders exercise caution ahead of Israel’s response to Iran’s air strike on Saturday. A Reuters report indicated that a third meeting of Israel’s war cabinet, initially scheduled for Tuesday to decide on a reaction to Iran’s unprecedented direct attack, was postponed until Wednesday. Furthermore, sources cited by The Jerusalem Post disclosed that Israel has purportedly finalized plans for a counter strike against Iran. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan announced late on Tuesday that new sanctions targeting Iran, alongside sanctions against entities supporting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iran’s Defense Ministry, will be enforced in the coming days.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 2344.6477 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2296.3867 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2201.8995 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 2349.9711 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 2284.2316 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 2163.5443 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 73.2515 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 77.7027 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 2244.9097 R2 : 2291.4069
  • S1 : 2094.3849 S2 : 2047.8877

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 2365.12 | Take Profit : 2392.14 | Stop Loss : 2347.46

SILVER

XAG/USD pulls back as dark cloud cover loom.

Silver retreats to $28.09, unable to hold above the crucial $29 mark, indicating potential further declines.The ‘dark cloud cover’ technical pattern suggests vulnerability and possible downward movement.Focus remains on silver’s ability to sustain above the $28.00 threshold, with key support and resistance levels closely watched.Silver prices retreat from daily highs reached $29.01, dropping 2.63%, affected by high US Treasury yields, and stirring resistance around the $29.00 threshold. The XAG/USD trades at $28.09, breaking key support levels on its way toward current spot prices.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 28.30 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 28.12 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 27.22 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 28.30 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 28.28 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 26.99 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 54.05 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 3.76 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 28.30 R2 : 29.21
  • S1 : 27.48 S2 : 26.55

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 27.84 | Take Profit : 29.05 | Stop Loss : 27.19

CRUDE OIL

WTI holds below $84.50 as hawkish Fed remarks offset geopolitical risks.

Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $84.25 on Wednesday. The black gold edges lower on the day as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell offset the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Investors place lower bets on the Fed rate cuts this year as the US economy remains robust and inflation is still elevated. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that it will take “longer than expected” to achieve the confidence needed to bring inflation to the central bank’s 2% target. It’s worth noting that the higher-for-longer US interest rate narrative may put some selling pressure on WTI prices since it translates to less demand for oil as the cost of holding crude oil rises.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 85.1886 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 84.2105 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 81.4770 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 85.8175 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 84.2161 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 80.7730 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 57.1726 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 64.0058 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 83.9547 R2 : 85.6260
  • S1 : 78.5440 S2 : 76.8727

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 83.11 | Take Profit : 85.62 | Stop Loss : 81.59

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas back to flat with markets looking for direction.

Natural Gas (XNG/USD) prices are getting nervous and torn between two main forces. On one hand the geopolitical risk for a surge in Gas prices is not to be overlooked with the Israel War Cabinet convening at time of writing on which steps Israel will take to retaliate against Iran after the attacks over the weekend. Meanwhile several Federal Reserve officials are confirming rates steady for longer, which could mean a slowdown in demand at hand for the coming months until that first rate cut taking place. With risks of an escalating war still on the cards, the DXY US Dollar Index is thriving as the main safe haven for investors to park their funds. As if that is not enough, the overall market narrative about US interest rates is changing, with investors pricing in that rates will either stay steady for longer or even rise further even as Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are still seeing a reason to cut this year.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.6905 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.7077 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.8318 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.7097 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.6944 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.7432 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 42.8242 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 24.4369 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.8789 R2 : 1.9741
  • S1 : 1.5711 S2 : 1.4759

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 1.72 | Take Profit : 1.52 | Stop Loss : 1.86

Elsewhere In The Commodity Market

Gold down (0.33%) at 2374.81, Silver up (0.48%) at 28.19, Palladium down (0.14%) at 1013.89, Platinum down (0.76%) at 948.63, Brent Crude Oil down (0.54%) at 89.55, WTI Crude Oil down (0.62%) at 84.83 as of writing time.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(NZD) CPI (QoQ) (Q1) Forecast –0.6%, Previous –0.5% at 04:15. (GBP) CPI (YoY) (Mar) Forecast 3.1%, Previous 4.4% at 11:30 (EUR) CPI (YoY) (Mar) Forecast 2.4%, Previous 2.6% at 14:30. (USD) Crude Oil Inventories Forecast 1.600M, Previous 5.841M at 20:00. (GBP) BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 21:30. (EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 23:30.