. Daily Forex Analysis - EUR/USD Climbs, GBP/USD Rises Daily

Daily Forex Analysis – EUR/USD Climbs, GBP/USD Rises

Daily Forex Analysis – EUR/USD Climbs, GBP/USD Rises

03 May 2024

Introduction

The EUR/USD climbs near 1.0750 as market sentiment stabilizes, driven by optimism ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls. With weekly US Initial Jobless Claims at a two-month low, the Fed hints at delaying rate cuts. ECB Chief Economist Lane emphasizes a data-driven approach. Meanwhile, GBP strengthens amid BoE speculation, and the JPY stands firm awaiting US job data. AUD maintains ground amid RBA optimism as all eyes turn to US employment figures for April.

Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD

EUR/USD advances to near 1.0750 as risk appetite regains balance.

EUR/USD advances due to positive market sentiment ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday.The weekly US Initial Jobless Claims remained at the lowest level in two months, prompting the Fed to delay rate cuts.ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane emphasized that the central bank will continue to adopt a data-dependent approach.EUR/USD extends its winning streak for the third successful day on Friday, trading around 1.0730 during the Asian session on Friday. The risk-sensitive currencies like the Euro gain ground as risk appetite regains balance ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). US Nonfarm Payrolls is expected to print a reading of 243K for April, compared to 303K prior. Additionally, Average Hourly Earnings and ISM Services PMI will be released later on Friday. These releases are expected to offer additional insights into the condition of the United States (US) economy. On Thursday, US Initial Jobless Claims data for the week ending April 26 showed no change from the previous week, remaining at 208K, the lowest level in two months and significantly below market expectations of 212K. This could give the Federal Reserve flexibility to delay interest rate cuts.

Technical   Overview With Chart :


Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.0709 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.0719 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.0765 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.0703 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.0703 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.0795 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 51.3283 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 81.3351 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.0827 R2 : 1.0894
  • S1 : 1.0610 S2 : 1.0543

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 1.0729 | Take Profit : 1.0800 | Stop Loss : 1.0686

GBP/USD

Pound Sterling moves higher with eyes on US NFP.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) rises to 1.2550 against the US Dollar (USD) in Friday’s London session. The GBP/USD pair strengthens as financial markets see the Bank of England (BoE) reducing interest rates from the September meeting, more or less in line with expectations of the US Federal Reserve making a similar move. Earlier, investors were divided between the June or August meeting. The speculation about the BoE pivoting to interest rate cuts has been postponed as investors remain worried about strong wage growth in the United Kingdom, which is feeding the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), the central bank’s preferred inflation measure.For the headline inflation, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said he is confident that it will return to the desired rate of 2%. The next BoE’s monetary policy decisionich will be announced on May 9, and markets expect the bank to hold interest rates steady at 5.25%. Investors will keenly focus on whether Andrew Bailey sticks to its statement that expectations for two or three rate cuts are reasonable this year, as stated in March’s policy meeting.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.2511 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2519 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.2570 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.2493 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2496 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.2612 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 52.4018 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 87.9012 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.2658 R2 : 1.2754
  • S1 : 1.2345 S2 : 1.2249

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 1.2565 | Take Profit : 1.2646 | Stop Loss : 1.2513

USD/JPY

Japanese Yen stands tall near multi-week top as traders keenly await US jobs data.

The Japanese Yen continues to draw support from speculated government intervention.The post-FOMC USD selling turns out to be another factor weighing on the USD/JPY pair.Investors now look forward to the crucial US NFP report for a fresh directional impetus.The Japanese Yen (JPY) scales higher for the third straight day on Friday – also marking the fourth day of a negative move in the previous five – and stands tall near a three-week high heading into the European session. Speculations that Japan’s financial authorities intervened again on Thursday, for the second time this week, with an intention to prop up the domestic currency, continue to lend some support to the JPY. This, along with the post-FOMC US Dollar (USD) selling bias, exerts additional downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. Investors, meanwhile, seem convinced that the gap in interest rate differential between Japan and the United States (US) will remain wide for some time. This, along with a generally positive tone around the equity markets, is seen acting as a headwind for the safe-haven JPY and helping to limit the downside for the USD/JPY pair. Furthermore, traders seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets and prefer to wait for the release of the closely-watched US monthly jobs data – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later today.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 154.8409 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 154.3056 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 152.4213 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 155.3870 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 154.4620 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 151.8844 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 37.52 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 12.8754 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 159.8323 R2 : 162.0514
  • S1 : 152.6484 S2 : 150.4293

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 154.08 | Take Profit : 151.77 | Stop Loss : 155.97

AUD/USD

Australian Dollar maintains ground amid subdued US Dollar, US Nonfarm Payrolls awaited.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues its winning streak for the third successive session on Friday. The hawkish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) bolsters the strength of the Aussie Dollar, consequently, underpinning the AUD/USD pair. Australia’s central bank is expected to maintain its key policy rate at 4.35% for a fourth consecutive meeting. . The higher-than-expected domestic inflation data released last week has raised expectations that the RBA may delay interest rate cuts.Market attention has now turned to the US employment data for April, scheduled for later on Friday, which includes Average Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls, and ISM Services PMI. These releases are expected to offer additional insights into the condition of the United States (US) economy.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.6526 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.6517 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.6528 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.6519 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.6502 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.6531 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 57.3685 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 86.6042 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.6602 R2 : 0.6669
  • S1 : 0.6387 S2 : 0.6320

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Stop Buy : 0.6581 | Take Profit : 0.6641 | Stop Loss : 0.6544

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

NZD/USD up 0.25% to 0.5976, The USD/CAD down 0.04% to 1.3668. The EUR/GBP down 0.03% at 0.8553. USD/CHF down 0.29% at 0.9080. AUD/NZD down 0.05% at 1.1006, The USD/CNY up 0.01% at 7.2406, AUD/SEK up 0.08% at 7.1384, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(GBP) Composite PMI (Apr) Forecast 54.0, Previous 52.8 at 14:00. (GBP) Service PMI (Apr) Forecast 54.9, Previous 53.1 at 14:00. (USD) Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Apr) Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.3% at 18:00. (USD) Unemployment Rate (Apr) Forecast 3.8%, Previous 3.8% at 18:00. (USD) Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr) Forecast 238K, Previous 303K at 18:00. (USD) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr) Forecast 52.0, Previous 51.4 at 19:30.