. Daily Forex Analysis - EUR/USD Stable And GBP/USD Depressed.

Daily Forex Analysis – EUR/USD Stable And GBP/USD Depressed.

Daily Forex Analysis – EUR/USD Stable And GBP/USD Depressed.

13 Jun 2024

Introduction

The Euro and US Dollar (USD) trade quietly near 1.08 ahead of key events. Eurozone industrial output is expected to decline, while the Eurogroup meets and ECB officials speak. The hawkish Fed stance lifts the USD, pressuring the British Pound (GBP) below 1.28. The USD strengthens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) too, after the Bank of Canada (BoC) signaled limited rate cuts. Even strong Australian employment data fails to lift the Aussie Dollar (AUD) as the USD rebounds.

Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD

EUR/USD hovers around 1.0800 ahead of Eurozone Industrial Production, Eurogroup Meeting.

EUR/USD remains stable as Eurozone Industrial Production is anticipated to decline on a monthly basis.The US Dollar advances following a hawkish hold from the Fed on Wednesday.Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated, “We don’t see ourselves as having the confidence that would warrant policy loosening at this time.”EUR/USD remains stable following the trimming of losses registered in the previous session. The EUR/USD pair trades around 1.0810 during the Asian hours on Thursday. Eurozone Industrial Production figures for April are scheduled for Thursday, with median market forecasts anticipating a decline to 0.2% month-over-month, down from the previous 0.6%.Traders will likely observe the Eurogroup Meeting and several speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers on Thursday and Friday.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.0815 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.0819 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.0807 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.0831 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.0836 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.0777 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 48.7575 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 34.2494 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.0890 R2 : 1.0948
  • S1 : 1.0703 S2 : 1.0645

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 1.0797 | Take Profit : 1.0734 | Stop Loss : 1.0844

GBP/USD

GBP/USD Price Remains depressed below 1.2800, downside potential seems limited.

GBP/USD drifts lower on Thursday amid the hawkish Fed-inspired USD buying interest.The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for deeper losses.A daily close above the 1.2800 mark will set the stage for a further appreciating move.The GBP/USD pair edges lower during the Asian session on Thursday and retreats further from over a three-month top, around the 1.2860 region touched the previous day, in reaction to softer US consumer inflation figures. Spot prices, for now, seem to have snapped a three-day winning streak and currently trade around the 1.2785 area, down 0.10% for the day. The US Dollar (USD) builds on the overnight bounce from the weekly low in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish surprise, indicating that fewer rate cuts were needed this year. Moreover, flash figures published on Wednesday showed that the UK economic growth stalled in April after the muted rebound from last year’s recession. This, in turn, is seen undermining the British Pound (GBP) and contributing to the offered tone surrounding the GBP/USD pair.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.2758 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2728 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.2669 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.2766 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2744 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.2611 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 58.9730 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 54.8593 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.2798 R2 : 1.2882
  • S1 : 1.2527 S2 : 1.2443

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 1.2755 | Take Profit : 1.2822 | Stop Loss : 1.2714

USD/CAD

USD/CAD snaps the three-day losing streak above 1.3700 on modest US Dollar recovery.

The USD/CAD pair snaps the three-day losing streak near 1.3730 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. The renewed US Dollar (USD) demand after the hawkish hold from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) provides some support to the pair. Investors will watch the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Producer Prices Index (PPI), and Fed’s John Williams speech, which are due later on Thursday. On the Loonie front, the Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem said late Wednesday that there is a limit to how far the Canadian central bank can diverge on rates from the Federal Reserve (Fed), but they’re not close to that limit. The BoC lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75% last week. The markets have priced in nearly 150 bps of additional cuts over the next couple of years. The divergence of interest rates between Canada and the US might boost the Greenback against the Canadian Dollar (USD) and support the pair in the near term.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.3715 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.3696 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.3665 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.3702 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.3682 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.3686 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 56.6974 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 71.5094 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.3740 R2 : 1.3786
  • S1 : 1.3593 S2 : 1.3547

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 1.3724 | Take Profit : 1.3786 | Stop Loss : 1.3693

AUD/USD

Australian Dollar fails to find support from robust employment data.

The Australian Dollar declined despite the higher-than-expected Employment Change.Australia’s Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.0% from April’s 4.1% rate, as expected.The US Dollar recovered losses as FOMC left its benchmark lending rate in a range of 5.25%–5.50% for the seventh time in a row.The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower despite the employment data release on Thursday. Australia’s Employment Change showed that the number of employed people increased by 39.7K in May, exceeding the expected 30.0K increase and the previous 38.5K rise. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate came in at 4.0%, below April’s 4.1% rate as expected. The US Dollar (USD) recovered its recent losses after the hawkish hold from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), undermining the AUD/USD pair. Investors await the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Producer Prices Index (PPI) on Thursday to gain further impetus on economic conditions in the United States (US).

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.6637 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.6631 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.6603 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.6641 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.6641 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.6582 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 53.5264 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 49.2591 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.6706 R2 : 0.6764
  • S1 : 0.6515 S2 : 0.6457

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 0.6613 | Take Profit : 0.6678 | Stop Loss : 0.6576

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

NZD/USD down 0.24% to 0.6170, The USD/JPY up 0.28% to 157.17. The EUR/GBP up 0.13% at 0.8456. EUR/AUD down 0.22% at 1.6257. AUD/NZD up 0.3% at 1.0776, The USD/CNY up 0.19% at 7.2511, AUD/SEK down 0.18% at 6.9039, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(USD) FOMC Press Conference at 00:00. (AUD) Employment Change (May) Forecast 30.5K, Previous 38.5K at 07:00. (EUR) Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr) Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.6% at 14:30. (USD) PPI (MoM) (May) Forecast 0.1%, Previous 0.5% at 18:00. (USD) Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 225K, Previous 229K at 18:00.