. Daily Forex Analysis - EUR/USD Steady, AUD/USD and Pound Rise.

Daily Forex Analysis – EUR/USD Steady, AUD/USD and Pound Rise.

Daily Forex Analysis – EUR/USD Steady, AUD/USD and Pound Rise.

04 Jul 2024

Introduction

EUR/USD trades in a narrow range as markets anticipate US NFP data and French elections. Investors are uncertain about ECB rate cuts amid mixed US labor market signals. Light trading due to the US holiday. Pound Sterling rises on UK election optimism, while the Japanese Yen and NZD/USD also see notable movements.

Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD

EUR/USD turns quiet with US NFP and French elections in focus.

EUR/USD trades in a tight range as investors shift focus to the US NFP and French elections outcome.Investors remain uncertain about when the ECB will cut interest rates further.US labor market conditions appear to have started releasing heat.EUR/USD consolidates in a tight range slightly below the round-level resistance of 1.0800 in Thursday’s European session. The major currency pair shifts to the sidelines amid uncertainty ahead of United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, which will be published on Friday, and the second round of French legislative elections on Sunday. Also, the trading volume appears to be light due to a holiday in the US markets on account of Independence Day.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.0749 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.0753 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.0771 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.0730 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.0739 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.0781 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 56.0916 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 73.9030 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.0860 R2 : 1.0919
  • S1 : 1.0669 S2 : 1.0610

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 1.0775 | Take Profit : 1.0826 | Stop Loss : 1.0746

GBP/USD

Pound Sterling improves due to risk-on mood amid ongoing UK general elections.

The Pound Sterling strengthens as US Dollar struggles after softer economic data.Survation’s poll predicts the Labour Party to secure 484 of the 650 seats in parliament.The lower US Treasury yields contribute to the pressure on the US Dollar.The Pound Sterling (GBP) extends its winning streak, which began on June 27. The GBP/USD pair trades around 1.2740 during the Asian session, which could be attributed to the market optimism amid the ongoing UK general elections on Thursday. Britain appears poised to elect Labour Party leader Keir Starmer as its next prime minister, ousting Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives after 14 often turbulent years. A forecast by polling company Survation, as reported by Reuters on Tuesday, predicts the Labour Party will win a record number of seats in the national election.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.2696 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2694 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.2674 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.2675 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2698 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.2667 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 58.8730 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 67.4859 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.2800 R2 : 1.2859
  • S1 : 1.2611 S2 : 1.2552

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 1.2722 | Take Profit : 1.2811 | Stop Loss : 1.2670

USD/JPY

Japanese Yen rebounds from 38-year highs amid intervention threat.

The USD/JPY retreats from a 38-year high of 161.95. FX strategists suggest that FX intervention could be imminent due to the weakness of the Japanese Yen.The US Dollar struggles as lackluster economic data raise expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2024.The Japanese Yen (JPY) appreciates against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday. The USD/JPY pair retreated from its peak at 161.95, a level not seen since 1986. Traders remain watchful for significant movements in the JPY and potential intervention by Japanese authorities to prevent excessive depreciation. Strategists pointed out on Wednesday that yield differentials appear crucial to the USD/JPY outlook. They suggested that FX intervention could be imminent due to the weakness of the Japanese Yen, which is exerting downward pressure on consumer confidence.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 160.5613 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 159.4578 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 157.3186 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 160.6917 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 159.0558 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 157.1745 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 71.4564 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 90.3491 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 161.4606 R2 : 163.0491
  • S1 : 156.3181 S2 : 154.7296

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 160.03 | Take Profit : 161.87 | Stop Loss : 158.91

NZD/USD

NZD/USD attracts some buyers above 0.6100 amid the US Dollar weakness.

NZD/USD gathers strength around 0.6110 in Thursday’s early Asian session, up 0.12% on the day. US ISM Services PMI came in weaker than expected, dropping to 48.8 in June from 53.8 in May. The RBNZ is expected to leave its OCR unchanged at 5.5% at its policy meeting next week. The NZD/USD pair extends gains near 0.6110 on Thursday during the early Asian trading hours. The pair edges higher as the Greenback came under heavy bearish pressure after the disappointing US ISM Services PMI report. The US markets will be closed on Thursday due to Independence Day. Data released from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Wednesday showed that the US Services PMI dropped to 48.8 in June from 53.8 in May. This figure came in worse than the market estimation of 52.5 by a wide margin. Meanwhile, the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 29 rose by 238,000, compared to the previous weekly gain of 233,000, above the consensus of 235,000. The Greenback has attracted some sellers due to the weaker US economic data, which acts as a tailwind for NZD/USD.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.6102 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.6109 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.6095 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.6098 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.6118 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6090 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 51.4657 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 43.2207 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.6186 R2 : 0.6225
  • S1 : 0.6061 S2 : 0.6022

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Stop Sell : 0.6105 | Take Profit : 0.6049 | Stop Loss : 0.6150

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

USD/CAD down 0.11% to 1.3625, The AUD/USD up 0.22% to 0.6719. The EUR/GBP up 0.02% at 0.8467. EUR/AUD down 0.09% at 1.6070. AUD/NZD up 0.04% at 1.0991, The USD/CNY up 0.01% at 7.2697, AUD/SEK up 0.02% at 7.0516, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(CHF) CPI (MoM) (Jun) Forecast 0.1%, Previous 0.3% at 02:30. (GBP) UK General Election at 06:00. (EUR) ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting at 07:30.