. Daily FX Analysis -Currency market rollercoaster amid Dollar surge.

Daily FX Analysis -Currency market rollercoaster amid Dollar surge.

Daily FX Analysis -Currency market rollercoaster amid Dollar surge.

28 Feb 2024

Introduction

In the currency markets, EUR/USD faces downward pressure, nearing 1.0800 amid an extended US Dollar recovery and heightened risk aversion. The focus shifts to key economic data, including US GDP figures. Meanwhile, GBP/USD tests lows near 1.2650 amidst sustained USD strength, with caution prevailing ahead of significant US and UK data. USD/CAD climbs to a two-week high at 1.3545, supported by a USD uptick, but gains may be capped by bullish Crude Oil prices. USD/CHF rebounds near 0.8800, with Swiss economic data and US GDP anticipation influencing the Franc’s movement.

Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD

EUR/USD grinds lower toward 1.0800 as USD extends recovery.

EUR/USD is grinding lower toward 1.0800 in early European morning on Wednesday. The extended recovery in the US Dollar amid a deterioration in risk sentiment is weighing on the pair, as the focus shifts to a data-packed day ahead. EUR/USD remains strung along the middle near 1.0850 after Tuesday brought little to push the pair in either direction after US Durable Goods Orders declined further than forecast in January. Markets await the latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures from the US on Wednesday. German Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is slated for Thursday, followed by the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) inflation print.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.0816 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.0814 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.0834 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.0811 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.0790 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.0878 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 51.2307 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 75.1465 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.0982 R2 : 1.1041
  • S1 : 1.0790 S2 : 1.0731

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 1.0793 | Take Profit: 1.0850 | Stop Loss: 1.0759

GBP/USD

GBP/USD sticks to lows near 1.2650 on sustained US Dollar strength.

GBP/USD is testing lows near 1.2650 in early Europe on Wednesday. The US Dollar is building its recovery gains amid a cautious mood, ignoring negative US Treasury bond yields. Traders refrain from risk-sensitive assets such as the Pound Sterling ahead of key US data, BoE and Fed speak. GBP/USD cycled around 1.2680 on Tuesday as markets look for a fresh push from the Federal Reserve (Fed) with investors steadily pushing away from elevated rate cut bets. US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) inflation numbers are due this week. UK data remains thin this week, and markets are focusing on key figures to update rate cut expectations from the Fed.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.2648 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.2645 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.2636 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.2639 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2627 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.2675 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 49.8249 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 78.1609 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.2762 R2 : 1.2806
  • S1 : 1.2617 S2 : 1.2573

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 1.2637 | Take Profit: 1.2573 | Stop Loss: 1.2686

USD/CAD

USD/CAD advances to near two-week top, bullish Oil prices to cap gains ahead of US data.

USD/CAD gains positive traction for the fourth straight day amid a modest USD uptick. Bullish Crude Oil prices could underpin the Loonie and keep a lid on any further gains. The prelim US Q4 GDP could provide some impetus ahead of US PCE data on Thursday. The USD/CAD pair scales higher for the fourth successive day on Wednesday and climbs to a nearly two-week high, around the 1.3545 region during the Asian session. The positive move is exclusively sponsored by a modest pickup in the US Dollar (USD) demand, though bullish Crude Oil prices might keep a lid on any further gains.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.3512 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.3493 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.3477 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.3504 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.3491 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.3419 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 59.1973 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 67.3032 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.3520 R2 : 1.3594
  • S1 : 1.3281 S2 : 1.3207

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 1.3565 | Take Profit: 1.3647 | Stop Loss: 1.3518

USD/CHF

USD/CHF rebounds ahead of Swiss ZEW Survey Expectations and trades near 0.8800.

USD/CHF improves to near 0.8800 ahead of Swiss ZEW Survey Expectations. Swiss GDP is expected to report a decline in the fourth quarter of 2023. US GDP is anticipated to remain unchanged at 3.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023.USD/CHF rebounds after two days of losses, improving to near psychological level of 0.8800 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The Swiss Franc (CHF) receives downward pressure ahead of the Swiss ZEW Survey – Expectations, scheduled to be released later in the day. Furthermore, investors await the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) on Thursday, which is expected to report a decline in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.8796 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.8766 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.8723 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.8803 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.8769 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.8642 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 60.4549 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 49.2381 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.8705 R2 : 0.8784
  • S1 : 0.8451 S2 : 0.8373

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 0.8817 | Take Profit: 0.8894 | Stop Loss: 0.8776

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

AUD/USD down 0.56% to 0.6507. The NZD/USD was down 1.03% to 0.6106. The EUR/GBP is down 0.05% at 0.8544. USD/JPY up 0.14% at 150.71. AUD/NZD is up 0.52% at 1.0656, The USD/CNY is up 0.02% at 7.1992, and the AUD/SEK is down 0.16% at 6.7347, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(NZD) RBNZ Interest Rate Decision Actual 5.50%, Forecast 5.50%, Previous 1.3% at 06:30. (USD) GDP (QoQ) (Q4) Forecast 3.3%, Previous 4.9% at 19:00. (USD) Crude Oil Inventories Forecast 3.100M, Previous 3.514M at 21:00.