. Daily FX Analysis - EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and more.

Daily FX Analysis – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and more.

Daily FX Analysis – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and more.

27 Mar 2024

Introduction

The EUR/USD pair remains subdued amidst a strengthening USD, holding above the critical 1.0800 level despite consecutive days of decline. Concerns over a potential ECB rate cut in June weigh on the Euro, while traders exercise caution ahead of the US PCE Price Index. Meanwhile, GBP/USD faces downward pressure as UK GDP data looms, while the Australian Dollar depreciates on softer CPI figures, signaling potential RBA dovishness. USD/JPY corrects from three-decade highs amid Japanese verbal intervention, with market sentiment questioning the Fed’s projected rate cuts amid economic resilience and persistent inflation concerns.

Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD

EUR/USD remains depressed on stronger USD, manages to hold above 1.0800 mark.

EUR/USD drifts lower for the second straight day amid some follow-through USD buying.Bets for a June ECB rate cut undermine the Euro and further contribute to the downfall.Traders might refrain from placing fresh bets ahead of the US PCE Price Index on Friday.The EUR/USD pair extends the previous day’s rejection slide from the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance near the 1.0865 region and remains under some selling pressure for the second straight day on Wednesday. Spot prices, however, manage to hold above the 1.0800 mark during the Asian session, though seem vulnerable to slide further amid some follow-through US Dollar (USD) buying. Moving ahead, Wednesday’s economic docket features the release of the Spanish CPI report, which might influence the common currency and provide some impetus in the absence of any relevant data from the US.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.0853 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.0859 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.0856 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.0859 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.0876 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.0838 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 45.0160 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 16.1374 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.0876 R2 : 1.0924
  • S1 : 1.0722 S2 : 1.0674

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Stop Sell : 1.0819 | Take Profit : 1.0768 | Stop Loss : 1.0859

GBP/USD

GBP/USD drifts lower to 1.2620, UK GDP data looms.

GBP/USD trades softer around 1.2630 in Wednesday’s early Asian session. The US Durable Goods Orders rose 1.4% in February against a 6.9% fall in January, better than expected. BoE’s Mann dampened expectations for large interest rate cuts this year.The GBP/USD pair edges lower to 1.2620 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The major pair remains capped under the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Many Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers stick to their path of interest-rate cuts amid the bumpy road to inflation and expect to cut rates three times in 2024, which might weigh on the Greenback. On Thursday, the US and UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data will be released.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.2672 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.2689 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.2677 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.2686 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.2716 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.2678 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 41.4269 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 15.6184 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.2735 R2 : 1.2794
  • S1 : 1.2541 S2 : 1.2482

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 1.2650 | Take Profit : 1.2571 | Stop Loss : 1.2705

AUD/USD

Australian Dollar depreciates on softer Aussie Consumer Prices, stronger US Dollar.

Australian Dollar extends its losses following the softer-than-expected Aussie CPI.Australia’s Monthly Consumer Price Index (YoY) rose by 3.4%, slightly below the expected 3.5%.US Dollar gains ground on risk aversion ahead of Personal Consumption Expenditures.The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losses for the second successive session on Wednesday. The AUD/USD pair experiences losses following softer-than-expected Aussie consumer prices, potentially prompting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to consider a dovish stance on the interest rate trajectory. This outlook is exerting downward pressure on the AUD. Australia’s Monthly Consumer Price Index (YoY) rose by 3.4% in February, consistent with previous levels but slightly below the anticipated 3.5%. Still, the latest reading pointed to the lowest since November 2021. The AUD has faced downward pressure following the release of Westpac Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, which dipped 1.8% to 84.4 in March 2024 from February’s 86.0, easing from 20-month highs.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.6546 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6552 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6562 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.6549 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6557 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6548 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 45.1109 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 18.8930 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.6580 R2 : 0.6620
  • S1 : 0.6453 S2 : 0.6413

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Stop Sell : 0.6513 | Take Profit : 0.6453 | Stop Loss : 0.6558

USD/JPY

USD/JPY corrects from three-decade highs near 152.00 after Japanese verbal intervention.

USD/JPY is correcting sharply from three-decade highs just shy of 152.00 in Asian trading on Wednesday. Dovish BoJ commentary drove USD/JPY to fresh multi-decade highs but Japan’s Finance Minister’s verbal intervention triggered the latest leg down in the pair. Any meaningful appreciating move for the JPY, however, still seems elusive in the wake of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) dovish tone, indicating that it intends to maintain an accommodative monetary policy for an extended period. In contrast, market participants now seem sceptic about whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates three times this year as projected amid a resilient economy and still-sticky inflation. This might further contribute to limiting any meaningful corrective decline for the USD/JPY pair.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 150.7626 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 150.1385 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 149.1101 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 150.6050 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 149.6599 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 149.2601 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 66.5941 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 93.5081 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 150.8153 R2 : 151.9920
  • S1 : 147.0060 S2 : 145.8293

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 151.08 | Take Profit : 151.78 | Stop Loss : 150.64

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

NZD/USD up 0.08% to 0.5999, The USD/CHF up 0.02% to 0.9041. The EUR/GBP up 0.06% at 0.8582. USD/CAD up 0.05% at 1.3590. AUD/NZD up 0.01% at 1.0883, The USD/CNY up 0.14% at 7.2273, AUD/SEK down 0.00% at 6.9193, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(NZD) ANZ Business Confidence (Mar) Previous 34.7 at 17:30. (USD) Crude Oil Inventories Forecast –1.000M, Previous –1.952M at 20:00