. Daily FX Analysis - EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY Dynamics.

Daily FX Analysis – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY Dynamics.

Daily FX Analysis – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY Dynamics.

25 Jan 2024

Introduction

EUR/USD hovers near 1.0880, tracing the 38.2% Fibonacci level in the early European session, driven by a US Dollar retracement. Wednesday’s bullish momentum to 1.0930 retreated later as the USD rebounded. Investors await the ECB’s policy announcements. GBP/USD experiences a downturn after reaching a two-week high, currently trading around 1.2710. AUD/USD faces a second day of losses at 0.6570 amid an enhanced US Dollar, reacting to positive S&P PMI data. USD/JPY retreats from a one-week peak following the Bank of Japan’s hawkish stance.

Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD

EUR/USD moves lower to near 1.0880 followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci level.

EUR/USD traded lower near 1.0880 during the early European session on Thursday as the US Dollar makes efforts to retrace its recent losses. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the pair is positioned below the 50 mark, indicating a bearish momentum in the market. EUR/USD gathered bullish momentum and advanced to the 1.0930 area on Wednesday. With the US Dollar (USD) staging a rebound later in the day, the pair erased a large portion of its daily gains and returned below 1.0900. Investors await the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy announcements and high-tier data releases from the US.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 46.69 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 30.64 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.11 R2 : 1.12
  • S1 : 1.08 S2 : 1.07

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.0913 | Take Profit: 1.0816 | Stop Loss: 1.0978

GBP/USD

GBP/USD extends its losses following the recent pullback, trading around 1.2710.

GBP/USD experiences a downward trend, following the pullback from a recent two-week high at 1.2774 on Wednesday. During the European session on Thursday, the pair traded lower near 1.2710. GBP/USD gathered bullish momentum and advanced to its highest level in nearly two weeks above 1.2770 on Wednesday. Although the pair staged a downward correction in the American session, it managed to post daily gains by stabilizing above 1.2700. The PMI data from the UK showed that the private sector’s economic activity continued to expand at an accelerating pace in early January.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.26 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 54.24 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 60.85 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.28 R2 : 1.29
  • S1 : 1.26 S2 : 1.25

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 1.2736 | Take Profit: 1.2827 | Stop Loss: 1.2676

AUD/USD

AUD/USD extends its losses amid an improved US Dollar, awaits US GDP.

The AUD/USD loses its ground for the second successive day on Thursday, trading around 0.6570. The Aussie encountered downward pressure following the release of positive S&P PMI data from the United States on Wednesday. Bulls seem to have returned and pushed AUD/USD back above the key 0.6600 barriers on Wednesday, adding to the decent gains observed in the previous session. All in all, the spot seems to have put some distance from last week’s yearly lows around 0.6520 for the time being. Also weighing on the pair’s price action and even tilting the scales to the bearish side aligns the likelihood that the Federal Reserve could continue to delay expectations of an interest rate reduction in the coming months, a scenario that should be dollar-supportive.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.67 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.67 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 38.89 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 24.26 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.69 R2 : 0.69
  • S1 : 0.66 S2 : 0.65

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 0.6570 | Take Profit: 0.6506 | Stop Loss: 0.6617

USD/JPY

USD/JPY The Japanese Yen retreats further from the one-week peak and looks to the US GDP for fresh impetus.

The Japanese Yen recorded strong gains on Wednesday and strengthened to over a one-week high against its American counterpart in the wake of the Bank of Japan’s hawkish tilt. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to maintain its current interest rates and yield curve control policy during its recent meeting on Tuesday. However, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled a strong commitment to achieving the 2.0% inflation target. On the other side, the US Dollar faces challenges due to the downward movement in the bond market and improved risk appetite.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 147.21 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 146.24 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 145.97 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 147.38 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 145.48 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 145.48 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 61.56 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 82.43 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 146.29 R2 : 148.20
  • S1 : 140.11 S2 : 138.20

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 148.14 | Take Profit: 149.79 | Stop Loss: 147.22

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

EUR/GBP up 0.07% to 0.8559. The USD/CHF up 0.11% to 0.8636. The NZD/USD up 0.06% at 0.6113. USD/CAD is up 0.03% at 1.3527. EUR/JPY is down 0.37% at 160.42, USD/CNY is up 0.22% at 7.1671, and AUD/SEK is down 0.12% at 6.8568, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jan) Forecast 86.7, Previous 86.4 at 14:30. (EUR) ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jan) Forecast 4.50%, Previous 4.50% at 18:45. (ECB) ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 18:45. (USD) Building Permits Forecast 1.495M, Previous 1.467M at 19:00. (USD) Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 200K, Previous 187K at 19:00. (USD) GDP (QoQ) (Q4) Forecast 2.0%, Previous 4.9% at 19:00. (EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 21:30.