. Daily FX Analysis - EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY.

Daily FX Analysis – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY.

Daily FX Analysis – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY.

29 Mar 2024

Introduction

EUR/USD remains subdued below 1.0800 amid a quiet Good Friday atmosphere, following soft French inflation data. With minimal volatility and thin liquidity, the pair anticipates cues from the US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell’s insights for direction. Meanwhile, GBP/USD holds firm above 1.2600 amidst the tranquil Good Friday trading, as markets await further guidance from the US PCE figures and Powell’s remarks.

Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD

EUR/USD trades weak below 1.0800 amid Good Friday lull, ahead of US PCE.

EUR/USD remains depressed below 1.0800 after soft French inflation data, amid minimal volatility and thin liquidity on Good Friday. The pair keenly awaits the US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell’s speech for fresh hints on next week’s price action. The EUR/USD pair broke below the 1.0800 threshold on Thursday, reaching a fresh March low of 1.0774 during European trading hours. The pair bounced from such a low but retained its negative tone and settled in the 1.0790 price zone. The US Dollar benefited from hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) comments, as Governor Chris Waller confirmed the central bank is in no rush to trim rates.US will publish the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s favorite inflation figure, expected to remain stable at 2.8% Year over Year.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.0830 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.0846 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.0850 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.0838 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.0872 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.0834 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 38.6214 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 8.1923 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.0876 R2 : 1.0924
  • S1 : 1.0722 S2 : 1.0674

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 1.0799 | Take Profit : 1.0734 | Stop Loss : 1.0850

GBP/USD

GBP/USD holds steady above 1.2600 as markets stay calm on Good Friday.

GBP/USD trades sideways above 1.2600 amid a typical Good Friday trading lull. A broadly firmer US Dollar could keep any upside attempts limited in the pair ahead of the US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell’s appearance. GBP/USD came under bearish pressure and fell slightly below 1.2600 in the European session on Thursday. The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) aligns as key technical support at 1.2590. The GBP/USD pair trades on a weaker note around 1.2620 during the early European session on Friday. The decline of Pound Sterling (GBP) is backed by the growing speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) will begin the rate-cut cycle this year. Markets are fully pricing in the first rate cut in August, with a total of nearly three quarter-point interest rate cuts this year.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.2657 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.2679 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.2673 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.2663 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.2716 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.2675 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 42.2955 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 17.3231 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.2735 R2 : 1.2794
  • S1 : 1.2541 S2 : 1.2482

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 1.2668 | Take Profit : 1.2567 | Stop Loss : 1.2737

AUD/USD

Australian Dollar edges lower amid a steady US Dollar, awaits US PCE.

Australian Dollar remains tepid as market bias leans towards RBA adopting a dovish stance. Australia’s central bank may consider cutting interest rates in the second half of 2024.US Dollar strengthens as recent data suggests that the Fed may delay implementing rate cuts shortly. The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losses for the second successive session on Friday. However, market activity is expected to be subdued due to light trading on Good Friday. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) strengthens as recent data indicates annualized economic expansion in the United States (US), driven by consumer spending. This development undermines the AUD/USD pair. The Australian Dollar encountered difficulties amid weaker Consumer Inflation Expectations and Retail Sales figures from Australia. These indicators raised expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in the latter half of 2024. Furthermore, Wednesday’s release of the softer Australian Monthly Consumer Price Index further reinforced this outlook.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.6536 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6545 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6558 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.6537 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6558 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6546 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 43.1736 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 17.6730 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.6580 R2 : 0.6620
  • S1 : 0.6453 S2 : 0.6413

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 0.6515 | Take Profit : 0.6444 | Stop Loss : 0.6563

USD/JPY

USD/JPY sticks to 151.40 amid BoJ’s cautious approach regarding monetary conditions.

USD/JPY struggles as BoJ’s cautious approach to keep monetary conditions accommodative. Tokyo CPI (YoY) rose 2.6% in March, from the previous reading of a 2.5% rise. The strength of the US Dollar is bolstered by hawkish statements from Fed officials. USD/JPY remains calm and hovers around 151.40 during the early European hours on Friday. Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) for March climbed 2.6% following a 2.5% rise in February. Meanwhile, the Core Tokyo CPI climbed 2.9% year-over-year, down from a 3.1% rise in February. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki made remarks on Friday emphasizing the importance of stable currency movements aligned with economic fundamentals. He expressed concern about rapid fluctuations in foreign exchange (FX) markets, attributing speculative activity to these movements. Suzuki stated that authorities are closely monitoring FX developments with a strong sense of urgency and are prepared to take necessary measures to address disorderly FX movements.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 150.9026 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 150.3236 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 149.2662 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 151.0990 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 149.7719 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 149.3797 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 62.9475 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 88.1278 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 150.8153 R2 : 151.9920
  • S1 : 147.0060 S2 : 145.8293

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 150.81 | Take Profit : 151.83 | Stop Loss : 150.23

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

AUD/USD down 0.04% to 0.6512, The USD/CHF down 0.02% to 0.9014. The EUR/GBP up 0.06% at 0.8582. NZD/USD down 0.01% at 0.5972. AUD/NZD down 0.04% at 1.0905, The USD/CNY down 0.06% at 7.2213, AUD/SEK up 0.09% at 6.9786, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(JPY) Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) Forecast 2.8%, Previous 2.3% at 05:20. (USD) Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Feb) Forecast –0.3%, Previous –0.4% at 18:00. (USD) Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 21:00.