. Daily FX Analysis - EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD

Daily FX Analysis – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD

Daily FX Analysis – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD

17 Jan 2024

Introduction

EUR/USD recovers towards 1.0900 amid a risk-off mood, as the US Dollar takes a breather and the Euro finds support from hawkish ECB statements. Meanwhile, GBP/USD rebounds above 1.2650 on unexpected UK inflation data, and USD/CAD rises to near 1.3500 amidst market caution and lower oil prices. NZD/USD faces declines amid a risk-off sentiment, impacted by geopolitical tensions and reduced expectations of Fed rate cuts in March. Traders await US Retail Sales data for further market direction.

Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD

EUR/USD recovers toward 1.0900 amid hawkish ECB-speak.

EUR/USD is recovering losses while heading toward 1.0900 early Wednesday. The US Dollar is taking a breather amid a risk-off mood, The Euro is finding a floor, thanks to the hawkish ECB chorus. US Retail Sales data is next in focus. The EUR/USD pair remains under some selling pressure for the second straight day on Wednesday and drops to its lowest level since December 13, closer to mid-1.0800s, or the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) during the early European session. Moving ahead, traders now look to the release of the final Eurozone CPI print for some impetus. Meanwhile, the US economic docket features the release of monthly Retail Sales and Industrial Production figures later during the early North American session.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.10 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 41.94 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 12.58 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.11 R2 : 1.12
  • S1 : 1.08 S2 : 1.07

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 1.0851 | Take Profit: 1.0751 | Stop Loss: 1.0919

GBP/USD

GBP/USD rebounds above 1.2650 after UK inflation data.

GBP/USD is rebounding above 1.2650, finding fresh support from an unexpected increase in the headline UK annual CPI inflation data. The hot inflation data dashes hopes of aggressive BoE interest rate cuts this year, lifting the Pound Sterling. GBP/USD reversed its direction after dipping below 1.2700 and closed in positive territory above 1.2750 on Thursday. The positive shift seen in risk mood supports the pair on Friday as markets await Producer Price Index (PPI) data from the US. Inflation figures provided a boost to the US Dollar (USD) with the initial reaction but they seemingly failed to persuade markets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could refrain from lowering the policy rate in March.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.27 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.27 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.26 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.27 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.27 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.26 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 48.11 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 31.43 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.28 R2 : 1.29
  • S1 : 1.26 S2 : 1.25

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 1.2639 | Take Profit: 1.2720 | Stop Loss: 1.2592

USD/CAD

USD/CAD rises to near 1.3500 on market caution and lower Crude oil prices.

USD/CAD continues its winning streak on the upbeat US Dollar. The decline in the WTI price weakens the Canadian dollar Dollar and cheers the market sentiment change due to the Middle East conflict. USD/CAD extends its gains for the fifth successive session, trading higher near to the 1.3500 psychological level during the Asian session on Wednesday. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is prompting investors to adopt a cautious stance, which is in turn supporting the US Dollar (USD) against other major currencies, including the Canadian Dollar (CAD).

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.34 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.34 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.35 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.34 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.33 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.35 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 64.62 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 95.78 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.35 R2 : 1.36
  • S1 : 1.32 S2 : 1.31

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 1.3492 | Take Profit: 1.3584 | Stop Loss: 1.3439

NZD/USD

NZD/USD declines on risk-off mood, extending losses to near 0.6120.

NZD/USD loses ground as investors turn back toward US Dollar. The mixed Chinese data failed to improve the Kiwi Dollar. Traders await December’s US Retail Sales data to gain fresh impetus on the US economic landscape.. NZD/USD extends its losses on the third consecutive day, trading lower to near 0.6120 during the early European hours on Wednesday. The NZD/USD pair experiences downward pressure, influenced by risk aversion related to the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. Additionally, there appears to be a slowdown in speculations over Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts in March, contributing to the downward pressure on the pair.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.62 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.62 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.62 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.62 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.63 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.62 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 33.59 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 4.89 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.64 R2 : 0.64
  • S1 : 0.61 S2 : 0.61

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 0.6107 | Take Profit: 0.6020 | Stop Loss: 0.6168

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

EUR/GBP down 0.23% to 0.8586. The AUD/USD down 0.52% to 0.6550. The NZD/USD is down 0.32% at 0.6117. USD/JPY up 0.42% at 147.80. EUR/JPY is up 0.43% at 160.73, USD/CNY is up 0.10% at 7.1828, and AUD/SEK is down 0.39% at 6.8475, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(CNY) Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec) Actual 6.8%, Forecast 6.6%, Previous 6.6% at 07:30. (CNY) GDP (YoY) (Q4) Actual 5.2%, Forecast 5.3%, Previous 4.9% at 07:30. (GBP) CPI (YoY) (Dec) Actual 4.0%, Forecast –3.8%, Previous 3.9% at 12:30. (EUR) Core CPI (YoY) (Dec) Forecast 2.9%, Previous 2.4% at 15:30. (USD) Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) Forecast 0.4%, Previous 0.3% at 19:00. (USD) Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.2% at 19:00. (EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 20:45.