. Daily FX Analysis - Euro, Kiwi up, Pound down, Loonie recovers.

Daily FX Analysis – Euro, Kiwi up, Pound down, Loonie recovers.

Daily FX Analysis – Euro, Kiwi up, Pound down, Loonie recovers.

15 Feb 2024

Introduction

EUR/USD remains near 1.0725, closely watching ECB President Lagarde’s speech in the wake of mixed Fedspeak and the upcoming US Retail Sales report. The pair shows signs of balance recovery after a modest US dollar retracement led to gains. In other markets, NZD/USD sees slight gains, while GBP/USD faces pressure following UK GDP data. USD/CAD attempts to rebound, influenced by a subdued US dollar and the potential impact of declining WTI prices. The broader focus includes key economic indicators like the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and weekly Initial Jobless Claims.

Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD

EUR/USD sticks to lows near 1.0725, Lagarde eyed.

EUR/USD is holding lower ground while eyeing the 1.0700 mark in European trading on Thursday. The US Dollar struggles amid mixed Fedspeak, as traders await the US Retail Sales report for fresh policy hints. Ahead of that, ECB Lagarde’s speech is eagerly awaited. The modest retracement in the US dollar (USD) triggered a decent bounce in risk-oriented assets on Wednesday, encouraging EUR/USD to regain some balance and leave the area of yearly lows in the sub-1.0700 zone. On the ECB’s side, Vice President L. de Guindos remarked that although progress is being made, caution is warranted to avoid premature conclusions.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.0762 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.0799 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.0839 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.0755 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.0806 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.0889 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 37.4419 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 12.4185 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.0982 R2 : 1.1041
  • S1 : 1.0790 S2 : 1.0731

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.0750 | Take Profit: 1.0667 | Stop Loss: 1.0804

NZD/USD

NZD/USD posts modest gains below 0.6100 ahead of US Retail Sales data.

NZD/USD holds positive ground near 0.6085 amid the USD weakness.RBNZ’s Orr said the inflation challenge was not over and highlighted broad financial pressures as a reason for maintaining a tight monetary policy. Investors await US Retail Sales, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production, and weekly Initial Jobless Claims, due on Thursday. The NZD/USD pair posts modest gains during the early Asian session on Thursday. The USD Index (DXY) retreats from the three-month highs near the 105.00 barrier, supported by the improvement in the risk complex, which provides some support to the pair. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Governor Orr’s speech on Friday could offer fresh catalysts for the Kiwi. At press time, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6085, adding 0.02% on the day.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.6099 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6114 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6129 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.6093 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6102 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6179 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 44.3272 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 28.5221 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.6268 R2 : 0.6330
  • S1 : 0.6067 S2 : 0.6005

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 0.6092 | Take Profit: 0.6024 | Stop Loss: 0.6146

GBP/USD

GBP/USD stays on the back foot near 1.2550 after UK GDP data.

GBP/USD stays on the back foot near 1.2550 after UK GDP data.GBP/USD stays under modest bearish pressure and trades near 1.2550 in the European session on Thursday. The data from the UK showed that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted at an annual rate of 0.2% in the fourth quarter. The Pound Sterling drops during the North American session by 0.20% following a positive UK inflation report that showed prices are slowing down. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.2565 and tests the important 200-day moving average (DMA) after hitting a high of 1.2611. Besides that, GBP/USD takes cues from the fall in US Treasury bond yields after skyrocketing more than 12 basis points a day ago, dropping six basis points and standing at 4.26%.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.2606 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.2634 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.2630 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.2597 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.2651 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.2673 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 39.3966 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 20.4216 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.2763 R2 : 1.2807
  • S1 : 1.2618 S2 : 1.2574

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.2579 | Take Profit: 1.2494 | Stop Loss: 1.2640

USD/CAD

USD/CAD moves sideways after recent losses and clings to 1.3540.

USD/CAD treads water to hold ground post recent declines. The decline in the WTI price weighs on the Canadian Dollar. Fed’s Goolsbee suggested that the Fed may consider rate cuts despite upbeat consumer prices. USD/CAD makes an effort to recover its recent declines observed in the previous session, spurred by a muted US Dollar (USD) possibly due to decreased US bond yields. The pair is hovering around 1.3540 during the Asian session on Thursday. Additionally, the drop in Crude oil prices might exert downward pressure on the Canadian Dollar (CAD), consequently providing support for the USD/CAD pair.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.3498 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.3473 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.3466 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.3497 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.3469 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.3412 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 58.1418 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 83.2893 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.3521 R2 : 1.3595
  • S1 : 1.3282 S2 : 1.3208

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 1.3522 | Take Profit: 1.3610 | Stop Loss: 1.3475

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

EUR/GBP up 0.19% to 0.8554. The USD/CHF was down 0.18% to 0.8840. The USD/CAD is down 0.02% at 1.3540. USD/JPY down 0.25% at 150.13. AUD/NZD is up 0.25% at 1.0675, The USD/CNY is down 0.01% at 7.1936, and AUD/SEK is down 0.09% at 6.8271, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(GBP) GDP (QoQ) (Q4) Actual –0.3%, Forecast –0.1%, Previous –0.1% at 02:00. (GBP) Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Dec) Actual –0.3%, Previous –0.2% at 02:00. (GBP) GDP (MoM) (Dec) Actual –0.1%, Forecast –0.2%, Previous 0.3% at 02:00. (GBP) GDP (YoY) Actual 0.0%, Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.2% at 02:00. (GBP) Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Dec) Actual 0.8%, Forecast –0.1%, Previous 0.4% at 02:00. (EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 13:30. (USD) Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.4% at 08:30. (USD) Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 219K, Previous 218K at 08:30.