. Daily FX Analysis - Euro, Pound, NZD, Aussie rise; Forex active, data pending.

Daily FX Analysis – Euro, Pound, NZD, Aussie rise; Forex active, data pending.

Daily FX Analysis – Euro, Pound, NZD, Aussie rise; Forex active, data pending.

25 Apr 2024

Introduction

Amidst a buoyant European session, EUR/USD rallies above 1.0700, eyeing 1.0750, buoyed by renewed weakness in the US Dollar. With key US data looming, including GDP and PCE inflation figures, investors scrutinize the pair’s movements. Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling surged towards 1.2500 against the USD, fueled by upbeat UK economic prospects. Additionally, improved risk sentiment uplifts NZD/USD, while AUD climbs for the fourth consecutive session on robust CPI data and hawkish RBA expectations.

Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD

EUR/USD extends gains above 1.0700, focusing on key US data.

EUR/USD meets fresh demand and rises toward 1.0750 in the European session on Thursday. Renewed US Dollar weakness offsets the risk-off market environment, supporting the pair ahead of the key US GDP and PCE inflation data. EUR/USD gained traction and climbed to its highest level in over 10 days above 1.0720 early Thursday. The pair’s technical outlook suggests that the pair has more room on the upside before turning overbought in the near term. The renewed selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar (USD) helps EUR/USD hold its ground in the European trading hours. Although US stock index futures trade deep in negative territory, the USD struggles to find demand. Later in the day, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its first estimate of the annualized real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the first quarter.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.0695 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.0725 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.0779 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.0662 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.0731 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.0806 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 47.3362 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 37.5367 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.0928 R2 : 1.0978
  • S1 : 1.0765 S2 : 1.0715

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.0740 | Take Profit: 1.0673 | Stop Loss : 1.0800

GBP/USD

Pound Sterling moves higher on upbeat UK outlook, decline in US Dollar.

The US Dollar remains under pressure ahead of US Q1 GDP and core PCE Inflation data.The Pound Sterling (GBP) advances to near the psychological resistance of 1.2500 against the US Dollar (USD) in Thursday’s London session. The GBP/USD pair capitalizes on expectations of an improvement in the United Kingdom’s economic outlook and a decline in the US Dollar. Investors’ confidence in the UK economy’s outlook improved after the preliminary PMI report from S&P Global/CIPS for April showed that new business volumes increased across the private sector as a whole. The agency also reported that the rate of growth of overall activity was the strongest since May 2023. However, the expansion was centred on the service sector, as manufacturers saw a moderate downturn in order books.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.2466 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2511 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.2582 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.2435 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2523 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.2624 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 47.6968 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 42.4613 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.2819 R2 : 1.2894
  • S1 : 1.2576 S2 : 1.2501

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 1.2547 | Take Profit : 1.2423 | Stop Loss : 1.2640

NZD/USD

NZD/USD rises to near 0.5950 on improved risk appetite.

The NZD/USD pair moves in the positive direction, trading around 0.5940 during the Asian session on Thursday. The risk-sensitive New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gains momentum as risk appetite improves. Investors are optimistic about the resolution of conflicts between Iran and Israel, following a statement by an Iranian official suggesting no immediate plans for retaliation against Israeli airstrikes, as reported by Reuters. The China Securities Journal reported on Tuesday that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) plans to reduce the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate to decrease funding costs during the next MLF rate setting scheduled for May 15. Lower MLF rates in China could stimulate economic activity and boost consumer spending, which may lead to increased demand for New Zealand goods and services in the Chinese market.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.5936 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.5959 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.6018 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.5916 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.5958 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.6047 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 47.3987 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 38.6910 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.6149 R2 : 0.6211
  • S1 : 0.5951 S2 : 0.5890

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Sell

Trade Suggestion : Limit Sell : 0.5991 | Take Profit : 0.5923 | Stop Loss : 0.6043

AUD/USD

Australian Dollar remains firmer amid tepid US Dollar, US GDP eyed.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) gained traction against the US Dollar (USD) following the release of robust Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures on Wednesday. Additionally, the easing tensions in the Middle East have created a positive market sentiment, favoring risk-sensitive currencies like the AUD and consequently supporting the AUD/USD pair. The Australian Dollar gains ground following the higher 10-year yield on Australian government bonds, which has surged above 4.49%, approaching five-month highs. This increase in yield is attributed to the growing expectations of a more hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) regarding its interest rate trajectory.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.6482 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.6495 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.6525 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.6454 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.6503 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.6532 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 53.0980 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 50.1773 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.6628 R2 : 0.6673
  • S1 : 0.6483 S2 : 0.6438

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Stop Buy : 0.6546 | Take Profit : 0.6625 | Stop Loss : 0.6496

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

USD/JPY up 0.22% to 155.67, The USD/CHF down 0.17% to 0.9133. The EUR/GBP down 0.17% at 0.8596. USD/CAD down 0.2% at 1.3675. AUD/NZD up 0.03% at 1.0949, The USD/CNY up 0.02% at 7.2471, AUD/SEK up 0.18% at 7.0830, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(USD) Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 214K, Previous 212K at 18:00. (USD) GDP (QoQ) (Q1) Forecast 2.5%, Previous 3.4% at 18:00. (USD) Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Mar) Forecast 0.3%, Previous 1.6% at 19:30.