. Daily FX Analysis - Euro Soars, Nikkei Falters, Currencies Skyrocket.

Daily FX Analysis – Euro Soars, Nikkei Falters, Currencies Skyrocket.

Daily FX Analysis – Euro Soars, Nikkei Falters, Currencies Skyrocket.

14 Dec 2023

Introduction 

In currency markets, the EUR/USD sees upward momentum above 1.0900 ahead of the European Central Bank’s policy decision. Meanwhile, the USD/CAD faces continued declines amid a weakened US Dollar and rising oil prices. The USD/JPY also attempted a rebound from 141.00 following the Federal Reserve announcement. Lastly, the AUD/USD undergoes fluctuations as the Australian Dollar retraces from a five-month high, reacting to U.S. Retail Sales data.

Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD

The EUR/USD moves beyond 1.0900 in anticipation of the European Central Bank’s policy decision.

 The EUR/USD has been upward since Monday, driven by dovish sentiments surrounding the Federal Reserve’s Interest Rate Decision.

Following widely anticipated predictions, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 5.5% on Tuesday. As of Thursday’s Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.0910.

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) forthcoming monetary policy meeting on Thursday is anticipated to retain unchanged rates. Investors are closely monitoring the ECB’s guidance for 2024, specifically looking for any signals regarding the timing of interest rate cuts.

Technical  Overview with Chart:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 10: 1.08 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • MA 20: 1.08 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • MA 50: 1.08 | Positive Crossover | Bullish  Simple :
  • MA 10 : 1.08 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • MA 20 : 1.09 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • MA 50 : 1.07 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 58.97 | Neutral Zone | Neutral 

Stochastic   Oscillator : 45.05 | Neutral Zone | Neutral 

Resistance   And Support Levels :  

  • R1 : 1.10 R2 : 1.11 
  • S1 : 1.06 S2 : 1.05 

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction: Buy  

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 1.09900 | Take Profit: 1.11360 | Stop Loss : 1.09100 

USD/JPY

USD/JPY tries to rebound from 141.00 following the selling pressure observed after the Federal Reserve announcement.

Finding support around 141.00 following Wednesday’s decline, the USD experiences restrained upward movements as the Dollar Index lingers at multi-month lows. There’s a possibility of consolidation for the pair ahead of the Bank of Japan’s decision on Friday.

The Dollar appears to have stabilized around the 141.00 mark, recovering from a nearly 3% loss after Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision.

Nevertheless, the pair struggles to achieve a notable rebound as the Dollar index hovers at its lowest point in four months.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 145.06 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 20 : 146.51 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 50 : 147.71 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • Simple :
  • MA 10 : 145.38 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 20 : 147.00 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 50 : 148.85 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 28.51 | Neutral Zone | Neutral 

Stochastic   Oscillator : 24.37 | Neutral Zone | Neutral 

Resistance   And Support Levels :  

  • R1 : 150.92 R2 : 152.15 
  • S1 : 146.92 S2 : 145.68 

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 141.711 | Take Profit: 138.763 | Stop Loss : 142.750.

AUD/USD

The Australian Dollar retraces from a five-month peak in anticipation of U.S. Retail Sales data.

The Australian Dollar soars to its highest level in four months as the US Dollar weakens amid a dovish outlook from the Federal Reserve.

On Thursday, the Australian Dollar (AUD) registered back-to-back gains and exhibited its most robust performance in four months following the release of moderate employment data from Australia.

The AUD/USD pair advanced, capitalizing on a significant drop in the US Dollar (USD) after the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. As anticipated, the Fed chose to keep interest rates steady at 5.5%. Current market projections indicate the likelihood of three rate cuts in 2024.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.66 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • MA 20 : 0.66 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • MA 50 : 0.65 | Positive Crossover | Bullish  Simple :
  • MA 10 : 0.66 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • MA 20 : 0.66 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 
  • MA 50 : 0.65 | Positive Crossover | Bullish 

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 65.40 | Neutral Zone | Neutral 

Stochastic   Oscillator : 64.13 | Neutral Zone | Neutral 

Resistance   And Support Levels :  

  • R1 : 0.67 R2 : 0.68 
  • S1 : 0.64 S2 : 0.63 

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy  

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 0.66 | Take Profit: 0.68 | Stop Loss : 0.65 

USD/CAD

The USD/CAD continues to decline, driven by a weakened US Dollar and a rebound in oil prices.

The USD/CAD stays under pressure as investors sell off the US Dollar following the dovish guidance from the Fed. Eyes are on the upcoming US Retail Sales data for November. The Canadian Dollar gained strength due to a notable rebound in oil prices.

The USD/CAD pair extended its decline, approaching 1.3450, driven by a US Dollar sell-off following the Federal Reserve’s dovish interest rate guidance and a notable oil price recovery.

The Loonie weakened as the US Dollar Index (DXY) neared its five-month low around 102.55 amid a prevailing risk-off sentiment.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.88 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 20 : 0.88 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 50 : 0.89 | Negative Crossover | Bearish  Simple :
  • MA 10 : 0.87 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 20 : 0.88 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 
  • MA 50 : 0.89 | Negative Crossover | Bearish 

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 33.48 | Neutral Zone | Neutral 

Stochastic   Oscillator : 33.40 | Neutral Zone | Neutral 

Resistance   And Support Levels :  

  • R1 : 0.90 R2 : 0.91 
  • S1 : 0.87 S2 : 0.86 

Overall Sentiment : Bearish Market Direction : Sell  

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 1.3495 | Take Profit : 1.33829 | Stop Loss : 1.36 

Elsewhere In the Forex Market

EUR/GBP up 0.06% to 0.8623. The NZD/USD up 0.57% to 0.6208. The USD/CHF down 0.64% at 0.8660. GBP/USD up 0.98% at 1.2740, EUR/JPY up 0.01% at 161.49, The USD/CNY down 0.66% at 7.1250, AUD/SEK down 0.23% at 6.8581, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(USD) Fed Interest Rate Decision Actual 5.50%, Forecast 5.50%, Previous 5.50% at 00:30.

(USD) FOMC Press Conference at 00:30.

(NZD) GDP (QoQ) (Q3) Actual –0.3%, Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.9% at 03:15.

(AUD) Employment Change (Nov) Actual 61.5K, Forecast 11.0K, Previous 55.0K at 06:00.

(CHF) SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q4) Forecast 1.75%, Previous 1.75% at 14:00.

(GBP) BoE Interest Rate Decision (Dec) Forecast 5.25%, Previous 5.25% at 17:30.

(EUR) Interest Rate Decision (Dec) Forecast 4.50%, Previous 4.50% at 18:45.

(USD) Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) Forecast –0.1%, Previous –0.1% at 19:00.

(USD) Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 220K, Previous 220K at 19:00.