. Daily FX Analysis - Explore forex as major pairs rally, await data.

Daily FX Analysis – Explore forex as major pairs rally, await data.

Daily FX Analysis – Explore forex as major pairs rally, await data.

06 Mar 2024

Introduction

EUR/USD climbs above 1.0850 in the European session amid a cautiously optimistic market sentiment ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony and US jobs data. Investors await the EU Retail Sales report as they tread carefully before key macroeconomic events. GBP/USD regains momentum above 1.2700, anticipating UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s Budget Report, while USD/CAD eyes the BoC rate decision. The Australian Dollar rebounds despite weaker GDP data, influenced by fluctuations in the S&P/ASX 200 Index and developments in the US Dollar and Fed Powell’s testimony.

Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD

EUR/USD rises above 1.0850 ahead of US data, Fed’s Powell.

EUR/USD is picking up fresh bids above 1.0850 in European trading on Wednesday, as the US Dollar licks its wounds amid a cautiously optimistic market mood ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony and US jobs data. EU Retail Sales report is eyed as well. EUR/USD trades in a tight channel above 1.0850 in the European morning on Wednesday as investors move to the sidelines ahead of key macroeconomic events. Although EUR/USD edged higher during the European trading hours on Tuesday, it failed to gather bullish momentum in the second half of the day as the US Dollar (USD) benefited from the souring market mood.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.0837 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.0827 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.0836 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.0839 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.0805 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.0859 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 57.0348 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 82.4103 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.0876 R2 : 1.0924
  • S1 : 1.0722 S2 : 1.0674

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 1.0858 | Take Profit: 1.0913 | Stop Loss: 1.0822

GBP/USD

GBP/USD regains 1.2700 ahead of the UK Budget Report.

GBP/USD is trading above 1.2700, gaining upside traction in the European session on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling remains expectant ahead of the UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s Budget Report while the US Dollar struggles in anticipation of Powell’s testimony and US jobs data. Fed chair Powell will be appearing twice this week, on both Wednesday and Thursday as the head of the US central bank testifies about the Fed’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report to the US government’s House Financial Services Committee. Headlines are expected throughout both days as the Fed chairman answers policymaker questions about the US economy and the Fed’s outlook.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.2674 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2660 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.2644 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.2674 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2641 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.2671 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 59.3866 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator: 87.7728 | | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.2735 R2 : 1.2794
  • S1 : 1.2541 S2 : 1.2482

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 1.2698 | Take Profit: 1.2772 | Stop Loss: 1.2656

USD/CAD

USD/CAD Price Remains capped below 1.3500, with eyes on the BoC rate decision.

USD/CAD loses ground near 1.3583 ahead of the BoC rate decision. The pair maintains a bullish outlook unchanged as the pair is above the key EMA; RSI stands in bullish territory. The immediate resistance level will emerge at 1.3600; 1.3570 acts as an initial support level for the pair. The USD/CAD pair remains capped under the 1.3500 barrier during the early European session on Wednesday. Market players await the Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision and press conference later in the day. The Canadian central bank is widely expected to hold its key interest rate at 5.0% at its March meeting, and financial markets anticipate the first rate cut to come in around June. USD/CAD currently trades near 1.3583, down 0.08% on the day.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.3555 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.3527 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.3495 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.3547 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.3519 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.3453 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 61.4018 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 85.9681 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.3607 R2 : 1.3664
  • S1 : 1.3424 S2 : 1.3367

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 1.3601 | Take Profit: 1.3681 | Stop Loss : 1.3558

AUD/USD

Australian Dollar gains ground amid a stable US Dollar, Fed Powell’s testimony awaited.

Australian Dollar recovers intraday losses as the ASX 200 Index improves on Wednesday. Australian GDP (QoQ) grew by 0.2%, slightly below the expected 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Commonwealth Bank of Australia reiterated its expectation of 75 bps rate cuts in 2024 after weak GDP data ISM Services PMI declined to 52.6 against the forecasted 53.0 for February dollar gains ground on higher US Treasury yields. The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovers intraday losses despite a softer GDP on Wednesday. However, the AUD faced downward pressure during early Asian hours amid a weaker equity market. The S&P/ASX 200 Index has declined for three consecutive sessions, mirroring the sell-off in technology stocks on Wall Street and lower mining stocks.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.6518 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6528 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6557 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.6524 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6520 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6589 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 46.0593 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 32.0752 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.6580 R2 : 0.6620
  • S1 : 0.6453 S2 : 0.6413

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 0.6486 | Take Profit: 0.6403 | Stop Loss: 0.6542

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

NZD/USD up 0.19% to 0.6098, The USD/CHF up 0.1% to 0.8842. The EUR/GBP is down 0.02% at 0.8542. USD/JPY down 0.31% at 149.57. AUD/NZD is up 0.07% at 1.0687, The USD/CNY is up 0.04% at 7.1987, and AUD/SEK is up 0.15% at 6.7590, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(AUD) GDP (QoQ) (Q4) Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.2% at 06:00. (AUD) Retail Sales (MoM) Forecast 1.1%, Previous –2.1% at 06:00. (USD) ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb) Forecast 149K, Previous 107K at 18:45. (CAD) BoC Interest Rate Decision Forecast 5.00%, Previous 5.00% at 20:15. (USD) JOLTs Job Openings (Jan) Forecast 8.800M, Previous 9.026M at 20:30. (CAD) BoC Press Conference at 21:00.