. Daily FX Analysis - Explore forex turmoil, predict market trends.

Daily FX Analysis – Explore forex turmoil, predict market trends.

Daily FX Analysis – Explore forex turmoil, predict market trends.

01 Mar 2024

Introduction

In the European session, EUR/USD defends the 1.0800 mark, facing a subdued US Dollar and awaiting Eurozone inflation data for direction. GBP/USD maintains modest gains above 1.2600 amidst a risk-on mood, eyeing the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. The Australian Dollar holds positive ground on the back of record highs in the S&P/ASX 200 Index. Japanese Yen weakens as hawkish Fed expectations support USD amid BoJ policy uncertainty.

Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD

EUR/USD defends 1.0800 ahead of EU inflation data.

EUR/USD is defending the 1.0800 mark in the European session on Friday. The pair holds steady amid a subdued US Dollar and an upbeat mood, awaiting the top-tier Eurozone inflation data for fresh directional impetus. EUR/USD came under bearish pressure during the American trading hours on Thursday and closed the third consecutive day in negative territory. Although the pair managed to hold steady above 1.0800 on Friday, it could have a difficult time extending its recovery unless the Eurozone inflation data supports the Euro. In the second half of the day, the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be featured in the US economic docket.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.0815 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.0813 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.0832 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.0819 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.0788 | Negative Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.0870 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 48.6726 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 63.7711 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.0877 R2 : 1.0924
  • S1 : 1.0722 S2 : 1.0674

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 1.0799 | Take Profit: 1.0733 | Stop Loss: 1.0846

GBP/USD

GBP/USD sticks to modest gains above 1.2600, US ISM PMI eyed.

GBP/USD is posting small gains above 1.2600 in the European trading hours on Friday. The pair is holding its recovery mode, as the US Dollar stays on the back foot amid a risk-on mood, ahead of the key US ISM Manufacturing PMI data and the Fed’s Monetary Policy Report. GBP/USD continued to push lower and closed the second consecutive day in negative territory on Thursday. Although the pair holds comfortably above 1.2600 early Friday, the technical outlook does not yet point to a buildup of recovery momentum. After fluctuating wildly with the immediate reaction to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the US Dollar (USD) Index settled higher on Thursday, supported by the souring risk mood and cautious comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers on the policy pivot.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.2643 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.2642 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.2636 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.2646 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.2621 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.2672 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 47.3474 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator: 58.0460 | | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.2735 R2 : 1.2794
  • S1 : 1.2541 S2 : 1.2482

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Neutral

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 1.2615 | Take Profit: 1.2535 | Stop Loss: 1.2673

AUD/USD

Australian Dollar consolidates amid a stable US Dollar, US Manufacturing PMI eyed.

The Australian Dollar strengthened in response to the increase in the S&P/ASX 200 Index. Australian share market surged to new record highs, buoyed by gains in Wall Street overnight. Chinese Manufacturing PMI declined to 49.1 and Non-Manufacturing PMI improved to 51.4 in February. The US Dollar Index (DXY) maintains stability amid the improved US Treasury yields. The Australian Dollar (AUD) remained in positive territory on Friday, buoyed by a rise in the S&P/ASX 200 Index to new record highs, coupled with gains in Wall Street overnight. However, the AUD/USD pair saw some retracement on Thursday as the US Dollar (USD) strengthened following the release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index, which met expectations. The Australian Dollar received a boost after the release of Australia’s Retail Sales and Private Capital Expenditure data on Thursday.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.6521 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6533 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6563 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.6532 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6519 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6607 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 41.4583 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 36.1148 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.6581 R2 : 0.6620
  • S1 : 0.6453 S2 : 0.6413

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 0.6516 | Take Profit: 0.6454 | Stop Loss: 0.6564

USD/JPY

Japanese Yen bears retain control despite subdued USD demand and intervention fears.

The Japanese Yen drifts lower on Friday and moves away from over a two-week high. The BoJ policy uncertainty and the risk-on environment undermine the safe-haven JPY. Hawkish Fed expectations underpin the USD and remain supportive of the momentum. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened sharply against its American counterpart on Thursday and shot to over a two-week top in reaction to the Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Hajime Takata’s hawkish remarks. Takata dropped the clearest hint of a looming rate hike, though the initial euphoric market reaction faded rather quickly after BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the 2% inflation target is not already in sight. Furthermore, a recession in Japan is expected to force the BoJ to delay its plans to tighten monetary policy. This, along with the risk-on environment, prompts fresh selling around the safe-haven JPY and assists the USD/JPY pair to attract some buyers near the 149.20 region.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 150.2911 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 149.7296 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 148.3458 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 150.3719 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 149.8904 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 147.1995 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 61.1418 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 74.8202 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 150.8210 R2 : 151.9977
  • S1 : 147.0117 S2 : 145.8350

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 150.66 | Take Profit: 151.84 | Stop Loss: 149.93

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

NZD/USD down 0.01% to 0.6086. The USD/CAD is up 0.07% to 1.3589. The EUR/GBP up 0.03% at 0.8562. USD/CHF up 0.28% at 0.8869. AUD/NZD is up 0.06% at 1.0677, The USD/CNY is up 0.15% at 7.1979, and the AUD/SEK is down 0.01% at 6.7356, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(NZD) RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks at 05:35. (CNY) Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Actual 49.1, Forecast 49.1, Previous 49.2 at 07:00. (EUR) German Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Forecast 42.3, Previous 45.5 at 14:25. (EUR) CPI (YoY) (Feb) Forecast 2.5%, Previous 2.8% at 15:30. (USD) Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Forecast 51.5, Previous 50.7 at 20:30. (USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Forecast 49.5, Previous 49.1 at 20:30.