. Daily FX Analysis - Forex market updates with expert analysis.

Daily FX Analysis – Forex market updates with expert analysis.

Daily FX Analysis – Forex market updates with expert analysis.

04 Mar 2024

Introduction

The AUD/USD faces downward pressure around 0.6500 as the US Dollar stabilizes, influenced by mixed market sentiment and Australian economic data. The focus remains on China’s NPC meeting and the Fed’s Powell. Meanwhile, GBP/USD gains on the BoE Chief Economist’s hawkish comments, and EUR/USD strengthens ahead of the ECB meeting. NZD/USD retreats near 0.6100, impacted by a stable US Dollar and a higher-than-expected trade deficit in New Zealand. Fed rate cut probabilities for March, May, and June are 5.0%, 26.8%, and 53.8%, respectively.

Markets In Focus Today – AUD/USD

AUD/USD stays on the defensive toward 0.6500 as the US Dollar stalls decline.

AUD/USD is on the defensive toward 0.6500 in the Asian session on Monday. The pair is feeling the pull of gravity, as the US Dollar consolidates its previous losses. A mixed market mood and Australian economic data also weighed on the Aussie. China’s NPC meeting and Fed’s Powell are in focus. There is a mixed action in the global market as S&P 500 futures are down in the European session while risk-perceived currencies are performing better against the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index, which measures the US Dollar’s value against six rival currencies, falls slightly to 104.00. In the June meeting, market expectations for rate cuts by the Fed remain firm as the annual core inflation data grew at the slowest pace of 2.8% in their years. However, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is still not ready to unwind the restrictive policy stance sooner as they need more confidence that inflation will return to the 2% target.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.6523 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6533 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6562 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.6533 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6521 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6602 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 45.3393 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 45.4502 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.6580 R2 : 0.6620
  • S1 : 0.6453 S2 : 0.6413

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 0.6534 | Take Profit: 0.6465 | Stop Loss: 0.6581

GBP/USD

GBP/USD sticks to modest intraday gains above mid-1.2600s amid softer USD.

GBP/USD attracts buyers for the second straight day amid subdued US Dollar price action. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill’s hawkish remarks underpin the GBP and remain supportive. Bets that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer to limit the USD losses and cap the pair. The GBP/USD pair builds on Friday’s goodish rebound from the 1.2600 round figure, or a one-and-half-week trough, and gains some positive traction for the second successive day on Monday. The momentum lifts spot prices to a multi-day peak, around the 1.2660-1.2665 area during the Asian session, and is sponsored by a combination of factors. The British Pound (GBP) draws support from the Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill’s hawkish remarks on Friday, saying that the first cut in the key interest rate is still some way off.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.2650 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2646 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.2638 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.2655 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2629 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.2672 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 52.8279 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 63.4100 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.2735 R2 : 1.2794
  • S1 : 1.2541 S2 : 1.2482

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 1.2644 | Take Profit: 1.2724 | Stop Loss: 1.2597

EUR/USD

EUR/USD gathers strength around the mid-1.0800s on a softer US Dollar.

EUR/USD trades on a stronger note near 1.0845 in Monday’s early Asian session. Several Fed officials said the timing of interest-rate cuts will depend on incoming economic data. The ECB is expected to leave interest rates on hold at its March meeting on Thursday. The EUR/USD pair kicks off the new week on a positive note during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The uptick of the major pair is supported by the weaker US Dollar (USD). Investors will closely watch the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting on Thursday, with no change in rate expected. At press time, EUR/USD trades at 1.0845, adding 0.07% on the day. Investors will take more cues from the press conference about the policy outlook. The hawkish remarks from the central bank could lift the Euro (EUR) and act as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.0824 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.0819 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.0834 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.0829 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.0795 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.0868 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 54.2459 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 69.7173 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.0876 R2 : 1.0924
  • S1 : 1.0722 S2 : 1.0674

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 1.0850 | Take Profit: 1.0915 | Stop Loss: 1.0806

NZD/USD

NZD/USD edges lower to near 0.6100, awaiting US ISM Services PMI data.

NZD/USD loses ground amid a stable US Dollar on Monday. New Zealand Terms of Trade Index (Q4) indicated a trade deficit of 7.8% against the expected 0.2% deficit.CME FedWatch Tool suggested Fed rate cut probability in March stands at 5.0%, with May and June estimated at 26.8% and 53.8%, respectively.NZD/USD retraces recent gains, lowering to near 0.6100 during the Asian session on Monday. The Terms of Trade Index released by Statistics New Zealand, a measure of the balance amount between imports and exports, indicated a trade deficit of 7.8% for the fourth quarter of 2023, which was higher than market expectations of a 0.2% deficit. The previous reading was a 0.6% decrease in the third quarter.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.6124 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6129 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6133 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.6144 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6126 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6162 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 44.4056 | Buy Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 26.7370 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.6182 R2 : 0.6224
  • S1 : 0.6044 S2 : 0.6002

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 0.6087 | Take Profit: 0.6033 | Stop Loss: 0.6124

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

USD/JPY was up 0.13% to 150.26, and The USD/CAD was up 0.02% to 1.3563. The EUR/GBP is down 0.02% at 0.8563. USD/CHF down 0.02% at 0.8831. AUD/NZD is up 0.13% at 1.0689, The USD/CNY is up 0.04% at 7.1986, AUD/SEK is down 0.08% at 6.7260, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(AUD) Building Approvals (MoM) (Jan) Forecast 3.8%, Previous –9.5% at 06:00. (USD) FOMC Member Harker Speaks at 21:30.