. Daily FX Analysis - Forex markets await key events amid speculation.

Daily FX Analysis – Forex markets await key events amid speculation.

Daily FX Analysis – Forex markets await key events amid speculation.

12 Feb 2024

Introduction

The EUR/USD pair hovers around 1.0800, with attention on the ZEW survey and US CPI data. ECB’s Panetta hints at a potential rate cut, while the Fed considers economic data before adjusting rates. Meanwhile, GBP/USD sees modest gains, and the US Dollar struggles amid uncertainty. The Australian Dollar strengthens on risk-on sentiment, and the Japanese Yen remains subdued post-national holiday, influenced by BoJ’s dovish remarks. Traders await key US inflation figures.

Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD

EUR/USD gains ground near 1.0800, ZEW survey, US CPI data eyed.

EUR/USD holds positive ground around 1.0795 on the consolidation of USD.ECB’s Panetta said the moment is fast approaching for the ECB to cut rates, gradual steps might help to mitigate the volatility on markets. Many Fed officials agreed that the FOMC may review further economic data before lowering interest rates. The EUR/USD pair attracts some buyers near 1.0800 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. Despite the lack of major US data releases last week, many Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers will provide insight into the interest rate outlook later this week. The US inflation and Retail Sales for January will be the highlights this week. At press time, the major pair is trading at 1.0795, gaining 0.07% on the day.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.0797 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.0829 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.0855 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.0794 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.0831 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.0893 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 42.4182 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 29.6279 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.0982 R2 : 1.1041
  • S1 : 1.0790 S2 : 1.0731

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.0804 | Take Profit: 1.0732 | Stop Loss: 1.0854

GBP/USD

GBP/USD trades with modest intraday gains and remains below the mid-1.2600s.

GBP/USD ticks higher amid a modest USD weakness, though the upside remains capped. The Fed rate cut uncertainty and a positive risk tone keep the USD bulls on the defensive. Bets that the BoE will start cutting rates in the next few months cap the upside for the GBP. The GBP/USD pair attracted some buying during the Asian session on Monday, albeit lacks follow-through and remains below mid-1.2600s, or the top end of a multi-day-old trading range. The US Dollar (USD) continues with its struggle to gain any meaningful traction in the wake of the uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate-cut path.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.2637 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.2656 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.2638 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.2638 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.2666 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.2673 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 46.5176 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 40.6250 | Neutral Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.2762 R2 : 1.2806
  • S1 : 1.2617 S2 : 1.2573

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 1.2637 | Take Profit: 1.2712 | Stop Loss: 1.2583

AUD/USD

Australian Dollar strengthens on risk-on sentiment amid a weaker US Dollar.

Australian Dollar gains ground on risk-on sentiment ahead of US CPI data. Australian money market moves lower on Monday despite a record surge in US markets on Friday. The US Dollar depreciates despite stable US Treasury yields. The Australian Dollar (AUD) seeks to build on its recent gains during a quiet Asian session on Monday. Despite stable US Treasury yields, the weakening US Dollar (USD) weighs on the AUD/USD pair. Moreover, the rise in Chinese New Loans may provide additional support for the Australian Dollar. However, concerns about deflation in China are dampening sentiment, potentially serving as a headwind for the AUD/USD pair.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.6531 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6562 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.6592 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.6530 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6554 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.6646 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 40.1621 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 27.1208 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.6763 R2 : 0.6837
  • S1 : 0.6523 S2 : 0.6449

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 0.6529 | Take Profit: 0.6598 | Stop Loss: 0.6480

USD/JPY

Japanese Yen remains confined in a narrow range near the YTD low against the USD.

The Japanese Yen struggles for a firm intraday direction and oscillates in a range on Monday.Last week’s dovish remarks by BoJ’s Uchida and a positive risk tone cap the upside for the JPY.Sustained bets for a shift in the BoJ’s policy stance limit losses amid subdued USD price action. Traders now move to the sidelines and wait for this week’s release of key US inflation figures. The Japanese Yen (JPY) kicks off the new week on a subdued note in the wake of a national holiday in Japan and oscillates in a narrow band just below a fresh YTD low touched against its American counterpart on Friday. The bias, meanwhile, seems tilted in favor of bearish traders in the wake of last week’s dovish remarks by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida and a positive risk tone, which tends to undermine the safe-haven JPY.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 148.4326 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 147.7033 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 146.8183 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 148.1735 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 148.0246 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 145.4242 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 62.9689 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 92.1186 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 148.5458 R2 : 150.4342
  • S1 : 142.4322 S2 : 140.5438

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 148.63 | Take Profit: 149.39 | Stop Loss: 147.94

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

EUR/GBP up 021% to 0.8544. The NZD/USD was down 0.27% to 0.6128. The USD/CHF is up 0.03% at 0.8746. USD/JPY is down 0.01% at 149.21. AUD/NZD is down 0.29% at 1.0617, The USD/CNY is down 0.01% at 7.1936, and AUD/SEK is down 0.11% at 6.8137, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(NZD) RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks at 06:00. (GBP) BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 23:30.