. Daily FX Analysis - Forex markets steady amid shifting sentiments.

Daily FX Analysis – Forex markets steady amid shifting sentiments.

Daily FX Analysis – Forex markets steady amid shifting sentiments.

23 Feb 2024

Introduction

EUR/USD maintains stability above 1.0800, consolidating weekly gains driven by sustained US Dollar weakness and positive market sentiment. The focus turns to the German IFO survey and Fedspeak. Meanwhile, GBP/USD exhibits modest gains above 1.2650 amid a softer US Dollar, with attention on Fedspeak as data remains light. NZD/USD treads water around 0.6200, struggling to extend its winning streak. USD/CHF holds steady above 0.8800, with the Fed’s hawkish outlook supporting elevated US bond yields.

Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD

EUR/USD holds steady above 1.0800 ahead of German IFO.

EUR/USD is consolidating weekly gains above 1.0800 in early European morning on Friday. The pair remains underpinned by a sustained US Dollar weakness and an upbeat market mood, despite mixed EU/ US PMIs. The focus shifts to the German IFO survey and Fedspeak. EUR/USD reversed its direction after climbing toward 1.0900 on Thursday and closed the day virtually unchanged below 1.0850. The pair holds steady above 1.0800 in the European morning on Friday and the technical picture does not point to a buildup of bearish momentum. The positive shift seen in the risk mood caused the US Dollar (USD) to weaken against its rivals in the first half of the day on Thursday. The data from the US, however, helped the US Treasury bond yields edge higher and supported the currency.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.0799 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.0806 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.0833 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.0781 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.0789 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.0885 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 52.7256 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 65.8480 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.0982 R2 : 1.1041
  • S1 : 1.0790 S2 : 1.0731

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 1.0834 | Take Profit: 1.0897 | Stop Loss: 1.0795

GBP/USD

GBP/USD posts modest gains above 1.2650 amid the softer US Dollar.

GBP/USD posts modest gains above the mid-1.2600s in early Europe on Friday. The ongoing US Dollar decline offers some support to the pair alongside a risk-on market profile. All eyes remain on Fedspeak, as the UK and US docket remain data-light. GBP/USD gathered bullish momentum and climbed above 1.2700 for the first time in three weeks during the European trading hours on Thursday. The pair, however, lost its traction and erased a portion of its gains later in the American session. Early Friday, GBP/USD holds steady above 1.2650. The economic calendar will not offer high-impact data releases from the UK or the US on Friday. Hence, risk perception could drive GBP/USD’s action ahead of the weekend.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.2631 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2636 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.2632 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.2616 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2630 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.2674 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 54.3700 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 65.7324 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.2762 R2 : 1.2806
  • S1 : 1.2617 S2 : 1.2573

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 1.2657 | Take Profit: 1.2724 | Stop Loss: 1.2621

NZD/USD

NZD/USD Price Treads water around a psychological level of 0.6200.

NZD/USD struggles to extend its winning streak amid a bullish momentum on Friday. The immediate resistance region appears around February’s high at 0.6219 and the 50.0% retracement level of 0.6223. The pair could find the key support region around the seven-day EMA at 0.6167 and the major level of 0.6150.NZD/USD grapples to extend its winning streak that began on February 14 amid a stable US Dollar. The NZD/USD pair struggles around the psychological level of 0.6200 during the Asian trading hours on Friday.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.6154 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.6141 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.6137 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.6138 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.6123 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.6180 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 59.6462 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 88.3266 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.62032 R2 : 0.6329
  • S1 : 0.6066 S2 : 0.6004

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 0.62036 | Take Profit: 0.6272 | Stop Loss: 0.6159

USD/CHF

USD/CHF holds steady around 0.8800, above the weekly low touched on Thursday.

USD/CHF trades with a mild positive bias, though subdued USD demand caps any meaningful gains. The Fed’s hawkish outlook remains supportive of elevated US bond yields and favors the USD bulls. A sustained move beyond the 200-day SMA is needed to reaffirm the near-term constructive outlook. The USD/CHF pair ticks higher during the Asian session on Friday, albeit lacks bullish conviction and remains confined within the previous day’s broader range. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.8800 mark, comfortably above a one-and-half-week low touched on Thursday, and remain at the mercy of the US Dollar (USD) price dynamics.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.8793 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.8754 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.8713 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.8811 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.8741 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.8632 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 60.6607 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 65.2872 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.8705 R2 : 0.8784
  • S1 : 0.8451 S2 : 0.8373

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 0.8801 | Take Profit: 0.8888 | Stop Loss: 0.8758

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

AUD/USD up 0.25% to 0.6273. The USD/CAD was down 0.03% to 1.3478. The EUR/GBP is down 0.05% at 0.8544. USD/JPY up 0.05% at 150.60. AUD/NZD is up 0.23% at 1.0599, The USD/CNY is up 0.06% at 7.1975, and the AUD/SEK is down 0.04% at 6.7727, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(NZD) Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q4) Actual –1.9%, Forecast –0.2%, Previous 0.0% at 03:15. (NZD) Core Retail Sales (QoQ) Actual –1.7%, Forecast –0.1%, Previous 1.0% at 03:15. (EUR) German GDP (QoQ) (Q4) Actual –0.3%, Forecast –0.3%, Previous –0.1% at 12:30.