. Daily FX Analysis - Forex trends, insights, trades.

Daily FX Analysis – Forex trends, insights, trades.

Daily FX Analysis – Forex trends, insights, trades.

26 Feb 2024

Introduction

EUR/USD maintains a flat trajectory above 1.0800 amid geopolitical tensions, with the US Dollar finding safe-haven demand. Investor confidence wanes due to China’s tensions with Taiwan. Lagarde’s speech and US data are eagerly awaited. Meanwhile, GBP/USD defends 1.2650 in a risk-off market, eyeing the BoE Chief Economist’s speech. Australian Dollar stabilizes after S&P/ASX 200 losses, while USD faces resistance as US Treasury yields decline. Japanese Yen struggles against the USD, hindered by reduced BoJ policy shift bets and hawkish Fed expectations.

Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD

EUR/USD trades flatlined above 1.0800 ahead of Lagarde.

EUR/USD trades in a tight range above 1.0800 early Monday. The US Dollar attracts fresh haven demand amid geopolitical tensions-led risk-averse markets—China’s spate with Taiwan and the US sap investors’ confidence. Lagarde’s speech and US data are next in focus. Despite Friday’s indecisive action, EUR/USD closed the previous week in positive territory. The pair continues to inch higher early Monday and the technical outlook suggests that the bullish bias remains intact. The US Dollar (USD) struggles to find demand in the European morning as US Treasury bond yields stretch lower.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.0803 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.0807 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.0833 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.0786 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.0788 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.0883 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 52.9390 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 67.0286 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.0982 R2 : 1.1041
  • S1 : 1.0790 S2 : 1.0731

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 1.0836 | Take Profit: 1.0896 | Stop Loss: 1.0799

GBP/USD

GBP/USD defends 1.2650 amid risk-off mood, USD rebound.

GBP/USD has managed to defend the 1.2650 level in the early European morning on Monday, even as the US Dollar recovers ground on the back of a risk-off market mood. Traders now look forward to BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill’s speech and US housing data for fresh impetus. GBP/USD took advantage of the broad-based selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar (USD) and registered weekly gains for the first time since early January. The pair holds steady above 1.2650 early Monday, while the technical picture suggests that additional gains are likely in the near term. On Tuesday, January Durable Goods Orders and Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for February from the US will be watched closely by market participants.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.2639 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2639 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.2633 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.2620 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2629 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.2675 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 55.0565 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 76.3870 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.2762 R2 : 1.2806
  • S1 : 1.2617 S2 : 1.2573

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 1.2657 | Take Profit: 1.2731 | Stop Loss: 1.2617

AUD/USD

Australian Dollar stabilizes after intraday losses amid a stable US Dollar.

Australian Dollar loses ground on lower S&P/ASX 200 on Monday. The Australian currency is expected to remain subdued ahead of the Monthly Consumer Price Index and the Retail sales dollar could face a struggle as US Treasury yields continue to lose ground. Fed is expected to prolong elevated interest rates after robust economic data from the United States. The Australian Dollar (AUD) halts its winning streak initiated on February 14. This decline is influenced by Monday’s downward movement of the S&P/ASX 200, possibly due to tension between China and Taiwan. However, the Australian money market opened higher mirroring the optimism that propelled Wall Street to a record high on Friday. These market movements coincide with Nvidia’s exceptional earnings, which spurred a surge driven by robust demand for artificial intelligence-related products.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.6541 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.6546 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6573 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.6529 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.6530 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6628 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 48.3341 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 74.1349 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.6763 R2 : 0.6837
  • S1 : 0.6523 S2 : 0.6449

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 0.6542 | Take Profit: 0.6480 | Stop Loss: 0.6586

USD/JPY

Japanese Yen bears are not ready to give up yet amid reduced bets for a BoJ policy shift.

The Japanese Yen remains confined in a range just below a multi-month low touched last week. Reduced bets for an imminent shift in the BoJ’s policy stance continue to undermine the JPY. Hawkish Fed expectations act as a tailwind for the USD and lend support to the USD/JPY pair. The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues struggling to gain any meaningful traction and oscillates in a range against its American counterpart heading into the European session on Monday. The near-term bias, meanwhile, seems tilted in favor of bears in the wake of expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will delay its plan to tighten policy amid a recession in Japan. Apart from this, a modest US Dollar (USD) strength, bolstered by bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer, acts as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 150.0984 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 149.3723 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 147.9791 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 150.3293 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 149.2563 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 146.6000 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 64.4400 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 88.0069 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 148.5458 R2 : 150.4342
  • S1 : 142.4322 S2 : 140.5438

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 150.58 | Take Profit: 151.84 | Stop Loss: 149.81

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

NZD/USD down 0.45% to 0.6168. The USD/CAD is up 0.01% to 1.3523. The EUR/GBP is down 0.05% at 0.8544. USD/CHF is down 0.03% at 0.8808. AUD/NZD is up 0.3% at 1.0616, The USD/CNY is up 0.04% at 7.1982, and the AUD/SEK is down 0.39% at 6.7483, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(USD) Building Permits Forecast 1.470M, Previous 1.493M at 18:30. (USD) New Home Sales (Jan) Forecast 680K, Previous 664K at 20:30. (EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 21:30.