. Daily FX Analysis - GBP, EUR, AUD, USD.

Daily FX Analysis – GBP, EUR, AUD, USD.

Daily FX Analysis – GBP, EUR, AUD, USD.

18 Mar 2024

Introduction

GBP/USD remains above 1.2700 despite market positivity, consolidating recent losses as the US Dollar maintains strength amid a risk-on environment. Investors await the Fed decision this week. Meanwhile, EUR/USD trades sideways below 1.0900, lacking clear direction amid steady USD and positive risk sentiment. AUD/USD finds support as the USD retraces gain ahead of RBA’s policy decision, while USD/CAD sees continued gains on expectations of the Fed’s stance on interest rates.

Markets In Focus Today – GBP/USD

GBP/USD drifts above 1.2700 despite market optimism.

GBP/USD is trading in a range above 1.2700, consolidating recent losses in early Europe on Monday. The US Dollar holds the upside, keeping the pair on the back foot, despite a risk-on market environment. All eyes remain on this week’s Fed decision. GBP/USD lost its traction and continued to push lower as the technical selling pressure ramped up after it broke below 1.2800 on Thursday. The pair fluctuated in a tight range below 1.2750 early Friday and the technical picture suggests that the bearish bias stays intact. Rising US Treasury bond yields provided a boost to the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday and caused GBP/USD to turn south.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.2753 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.2727 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.2683 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.2773 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.2716 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.2685 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 53.5078 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 48.7528 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.2735 R2 : 1.2794
  • S1 : 1.2541 S2 : 1.2482

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 1.2708 | Take Profit: 1.2814 | Stop Loss: 1.2645

EUR/USD

EUR/USD trades sideways below 1.0900 amid quiet markets.

EUR/USD is keeping its range play intact below 1.0900 in early European trading on Monday. The pair lacks a clear directional bias, amid a steady US Dollar and an upbeat risk mood, awaiting fresh catalysts for trading impetus. EUR/USD came under heavy bearish pressure and closed below 1.0900 on Thursday. The pair stays relatively calm but struggles to gather recovery momentum early Friday. On the Euro front, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept borrowing costs at record highs at its March meeting, but policymakers indicated they were discussing a first-rate cut. The ECB policymaker Pablo Hernandez de Cos said on Sunday that the central bank left borrowing costs at a record high this month but said it had made good progress in bringing down inflation and has started a preliminary discussion about monetary easing. He added that the central bank could start cutting interest rates in June after a decrease in Eurozone inflation.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.0897 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.0877 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.0859 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.0911 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.0870 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.0850 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 54.8517 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 50.2337 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.0876 R2 : 1.0924
  • S1 : 1.0722 S2 : 1.0674

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 1.0862 | Take Profit: 1.0938 | Stop Loss: 1.0819

AUD/USD

Australian Dollar holds its ground amid weaker US Dollar, ASX 200 Index.

The Australian Dollar could face challenges as the RBA is expected to maintain its current rates. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index tracks softer commodity prices. Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) increased by 5.5% in February, against the expected 5.2% and 7.4% prior Dollar retrace gains on weaker US Treasury yields. The Australian Dollar (AUD) snaps its losing streak on Monday. The AUD/USD pair receives upward support as the US Dollar (USD) retraces its gains on lower US Treasury yields. However, market participants adopt caution ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy decision scheduled for Tuesday. Additionally, investors are awaiting interest rate decisions from both the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed), expected to be released on Wednesday.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.6576 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6566 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.6569 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.6586 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6558 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.6564 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 50.6325 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 48.4035 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.6580 R2 : 0.6620
  • S1 : 0.6453 S2 : 0.6413

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 0.6573 | Take Profit: 0.6525 | Stop Loss: 0.6606

USD/CAD

USD/CAD inches higher to near 1.3540, focus on Canadian CPI, and Fed policy.

USD/CAD appreciates continuing its winning streak on Monday. The US. The Dollar could gain ground on expectations of the Fed maintaining higher interest rates to combat inflation. The higher WTI price could limit the losses of the Canadian Dollar.USD/CAD kicks off the week with its third consecutive day of gains on Monday, inching higher to near 1.3540 during the Asian trading session. The US Dollar (USD) could be bolstered by expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will uphold its narrative of maintaining higher interest rates to combat inflation, which could further mitigate significant downside for the USD/CAD pair. The Fed is also set to update its Dot Plot projection, outlining interest rate expectations for the next one to five years.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.3514 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.3510 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.3494 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.3508 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.3520 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.3482 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 52.0545 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 59.2034 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.3607 R2 : 1.3664
  • S1 : 1.3424 S2 : 1.3367

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 1.3509 | Take Profit: 1.3570 | Stop Loss: 1.3475

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

AUD/USD up 0.16% to 0.6569, The USD/CAD down 0.17% to 1.3521. The EUR/GBP is down 0.01% at 0.8546. USD/JPY up 0.01% at 149.14. AUD/NZD is up 0.07% at 1.0777, The USD/CNY is up 0.03% at 7.1974, and the AUD/SEK is up 0.04% at 6.8008, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) CPI (YoY) (Feb) Forecast 2.6%, Previous 2.8% at 06:00. (JPY) BoJ Monetary Policy Statement 22:30. (AUD) RBA Interest Rate Decision (Mar) Forecast 4.35%, Previous 4.35% at 23:30. (AUD) RBA Rate Statement 23:30.