. Daily FX Analysis - GBP, EUR, NZD, AUD trends, NFP impact.

Daily FX Analysis – GBP, EUR, NZD, AUD trends, NFP impact.

Daily FX Analysis – GBP, EUR, NZD, AUD trends, NFP impact.

02 Feb 2024

Introduction

GBP/USD hesitates around the mid-1.2700s following a robust post-BoE rebound, as the pair struggles to extend gains amid a narrow trading range. The US Dollar’s strength, fueled by Fed Chair Powell’s comments, impacts major currencies. EUR/USD advances towards 1.0900 in a positive market mood, while NZD/USD and AUD/USD show resilience on improved data and favorable economic conditions. Investors await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for further market direction.

Markets In Focus Today – GBP/USD

GBP/USD pauses the post-BoE rally near mid-1.2700s ahead of US NFP.

The GBP/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s solid recovery of around 130 pips from the 1.2625 area, or over a two-week low, and oscillates in a narrow band during the early European session on Friday. After closing the second consecutive day in negative territory on Wednesday, GBP/USD continued to edge lower early Thursday and was last seen trading at around 1.2650. Although the technical outlook points to a bearish tilt in the near term, the pair faces a two-way risk heading into the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy announcements. The US Dollar started to gather strength late Wednesday after Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell said that he doesn’t think that a rate reduction in March is the base case scenario.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 57.79 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 72.42 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.28 R2 : 1.28
  • S1 : 1.26 S2 : 1.26

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 1.2715 | Take Profit: 1.2793 | Stop Loss: 1.2663

EUR/USD

EUR/USD advances toward 1.0900 on an upbeat mood, ahead of NFP.

EUR/USD is extending gains toward 1.0900 in early European morning on Friday. The US Dollar is struggling to find its feet, allowing the Euro to stretch higher amid an upbeat mood. All eyes now remain on the US NFP data release. Following a drop to new two-month lows near 1.0780, an area also coincident with the transitory 100-day SMA, EUR/USD managed to regain some balance and return to the region well beyond 1.0800 the figure on Thursday. When it came to the greenback, the USD Index (DXY) remained within the multi-session consolidation range as market participants continued to digest the latest FOMC event on January 31.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.09 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.09 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 48.75 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 39.36 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.10 R2 : 1.10
  • S1 : 1.08 S2 : 1.07

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 1.0849 | Take Profit: 1.0931 | Stop Loss: 1.0798

NZD/USD

NZD/USD edges higher to near 0.6150 amid improved Kiwi data, and subdued US yields.

NZD/USD extends gains after softer US employment data released on Thursday. Investors await more US labor data scheduled to be released on Friday, including US Average Hourly Earnings and NFP. NZD/USD continues to gain ground for the second trading session on Friday, improving to near 0.6150 during the Asian hours. The depreciation of the US Dollar (USD) could be attributed to the subdued US Treasury yields. US Treasury yields experienced downward pressure amid concerns regarding regional US banks. Additionally, the improved medium-impact data from New Zealand could have provided some support for the New Zealand (NZD) and acted as a tailwind for the NZD/USD pair.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.61 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.61 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.61 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.61 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.62 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.62 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 49.68 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 44.92 | Neutral Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.63 R2 : 0.63
  • S1 : 0.61 S2 : 0.60

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 0.6142 | Take Profit: 0.6219 | Stop Loss: 0.6097

AUD/USD

Australian Dollar hangs near a psychological level, US Nonfarm Payrolls eyed.

Australian Dollar strengthens on positive Aussie Producer Price Index data. Australia’s PPI (YoY) grew by 4.1% in Q4, surpassing the previous growth of 3.8%. Former RBA board member, Warwick McKibbin, suggested cash rate may remain around 4.5% for some time. The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued its upward momentum on Friday, recovering from a three-month low reached at 0.6508 on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) faced downward pressure following mixed economic data from the United States (US). Moreover, the Australian Dollar (AUD) received support from improved Producer Price Index (PPI) data. Consequently, these factors collectively support the AUD/USD pair.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.66 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.66 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.67 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 44.67 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 36.00 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.68 R2 : 0.68
  • S1 : 0.65 S2 : 0.64

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 0.6615 | Take Profit: 0.6547 | Stop Loss: 0.6664

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

EUR/GBP down 0.05% to 0.8568. The USD/JPY up 0.13% to 146.63. The USD/CAD is down 0.07% at 1.3377. EUR/JPY up 0.28% at 159.56. USD/CHF was down 0.49% at 0.6533, The USD/CNY was down 0.01% at 7.1795, and AUD/SEK was up 0.23% at 6.8413, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(USD) Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) Forecast 187K, Previous 216K at 08:30. (USD) Unemployment Rate (Jan) Forecast 3.8%, Previous 216K at 08:30. (USD) Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan) Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.4% at 08:30.