. Weekly FX Analysis -GBP/EUR steady, AUD/USD, USD/JPY volatile.

Weekly FX Analysis – GBP/EUR steady, AUD/USD, USD/JPY volatile.

Weekly FX Analysis – GBP/EUR steady, AUD/USD, USD/JPY volatile.

10 Feb 2024

Introduction

GBP/USD remains resilient above 1.2600 as the US Dollar struggles to gain strength amid lower-than-expected CPI revisions. After briefly dipping below 1.2600 on Thursday, the pair stabilized, influenced by hawkish Bank of England comments and improved risk sentiment. Meanwhile, EUR/USD inches higher near 1.0800 after US CPI revisions, maintaining a sideways trend. The Australian Dollar hovers around 0.6500, supported by RBA Governor Bullock’s commitment to managing inflation. USD/JPY approaches 150.00 as the focus shifts to US inflation data, with Fed policymakers maintaining a hawkish stance.

Markets In Focus Today – GBP/USD

GBP/USD holds above 1.2600 as USD fails to gather strength.

GBP/USD continued to fluctuate above 1.2600 on Friday as the US Dollar found it difficult to stay resilient against its major rivals. The data from the US showed that the monthly CPI increase for December was revised lower to 0.2% from 0.3%. GBP/USD declined below 1.2600 on Thursday but managed to stabilize above that level early Friday. In the absence of high-tier data releases, the risk perception could impact the US Dollar’s (USD) valuation. The USD benefited from recovering US Treasury bond yields on Thursday and weighed on GBP/USD. Hawkish remarks from Bank of England (BoE) officials and the modest improvement seen in risk mood, however, helped the pair erase its losses.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.2639 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.2659 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.2638 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.2646 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.2671 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.2673 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 46.0589 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 40.2344 | Neutral Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.2762 R2 : 1.2806
  • S1 : 1.2617 S2 : 1.2573

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.2643 | Take Profit: 1.2516 | Stop Loss: 1.2731

EUR/USD

EUR/USD edges higher toward 1.0800 after US CPI revisions.

EUR/USD clings to modest daily gains slightly below 1.0800 in the American session on Friday. Following the downward revision to the monthly December CPI print, the US Dollar struggles to gather strength and helps the pair edge higher. Following a two-day rebound, EUR/USD failed to preserve its bullish momentum and closed virtually unchanged on Thursday. The pair continues to move sideways below 1.0800 as investors’ search for fresh catalysts continues. Meanwhile, cautious comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials seem to be further supporting the Euro.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.0798 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.0832 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.0858 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.0798 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.0839 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.0894 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 41.1376 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 26.2246 | Neutral Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.0982 R2 : 1.1041
  • S1 : 1.0790 S2 : 1.0731

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.0815 | Take Profit: 1.0717 | Stop Loss: 1.0887

AUD/USD

Meanwhile, cautious comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials seem to be further supporting the Euro.

Australian Dollar hovers around the psychological resistance amid an improved S&P/ASX 200. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock reaffirmed the commitment to managing inflation.CBA maintains its forecast of 75 bps rate cuts for 2024, with the initial cut anticipated in September. The US Dollar attempts to extend its gains despite the weaker US bond yields. The Australian Dollar (AUD) hovers around the psychological level of 0.6500 on Friday, retracing the losses registered in the previous two sessions. The AUD/USD pair faced obstacles as the S&P/ASX 200 index dipped during Friday’s early trading session, coupled with decreases in coal and iron ore prices.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.6533 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6567 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6595 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.6539 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6561 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6648 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 40.5888 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 27.1851 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.6763 R2 : 0.6837
  • S1 : 0.6523 S2 : 0.6449

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 0.6542 | Take Profit: 0.6446 | Stop Loss: 0.6608

USD/JPY

USD/JPY approaches 150.00 as the focus shifts to US Inflation data.

USD/JPY marches toward 150.00 as Fed policymakers maintain a hawkish rhetoric. Fed Collins said the central bank should prioritize achieving the dual mandate. The BoJ is not expected to go aggressive for rate hikes after exiting from an expansionary policy stance. The USD/JPY pair advances toward the psychological resistance of 150.00 in the late European session on Friday. The asset continues its two-day winning spell as investors turn cautious amid volatility ahead of January’s United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 148.2612 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 147.5453 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 146.7209 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 148.0018 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 147.8492 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 145.3840 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 63.3338 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 87.4023 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 148.5458 R2 : 150.4342
  • S1 : 142.4322 S2 : 140.5438

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 148.78 | Take Profit: 151.72 | Stop Loss: 146.99

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

NZD/USD up 0.81% to 0.6145. The USD/CAD up 0.61% to 1.3459. The USDCHF is up 0.08% at 0.8743. EUR/GBP down 0.18% at 0.8526. The USD/CNY is down 0.04% at 7.1936, AUD/SEK is up 1.00% at 6.8680, and CHF/SGD is down 0.19% at 1.5391 at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(GBP) BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 23:30 (Monday) (GBP) Average Earning Index +Bonus (dec) (Tuesday) (USD) CPI (MoM) (Jan) (Tuesday) (USD) Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) (Tuesday) (GBP) CPI (YoY) (Jan) (Wednesday) (EUR) GDP (YoY) (Q4) (Wednesday) (JPY) GDP (QoQ) (Q4) (Thursday) (AUD) Employment Change (Jan) (Thursday) (GBP) GDP (YoY) (Q4) (Thursday) (GBP) GDP (QoQ) (Q4) (Thursday) (GBP) GDP (MoM) (Dec) (Thursday) (GBP) Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Dec) (Thursday)