. Daily FX Analysis -GBP falls, AUD holds, JPY rises, USD/CHF adjusts.

Daily FX Analysis – GBP falls, AUD holds, JPY rises, USD/CHF adjusts.

Daily FX Analysis – GBP falls, AUD holds, JPY rises, USD/CHF adjusts.

14 Feb 2024

Introduction

“The GBP/USD faces a decline below 1.2600 following soft UK inflation data, amplifying the pressure on Pound Sterling. Meanwhile, robust US economic indicators suggest a prolonged period of higher interest rates, driving the pair to 1.2598. The Australian Dollar also grapples with US Dollar strength amid positive CPI numbers, while the Japanese Yen gains support from a shift in global risk sentiment and verbal intervention. USD/CHF, having reached an 11-week high, corrects slightly as investors anticipate continued US Dollar strength amid inflation concerns.”

Markets In Focus Today – GBP/USD

GBP/USD slumps below 1.2600 after soft UK inflation data.

GBP/USD lost its traction and declined below 1.2600 in the European session on Wednesday. The data from the UK showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 0.6% every month in January and weighed heavily on Pound Sterling. The GBP/USD plunges below 1.2600 as strong economic data from the United States (US) suggests the Federal Reserve (Fed) would keep interest rates higher for longer. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.2598 after hitting a daily high of 1.2683. GBP/USD slid on hot US CPI data, traders await UK inflation figures.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.2618 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.2643 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.2634 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.2616 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.2659 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.2673 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 41.0237 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 30.7950 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.2763 R2 : 1.2807
  • S1 : 1.2618 S2 : 1.2574

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 1.2571 | Take Profit: 1.2494 | Stop Loss: 1.2629

AUD/USD

Australian Dollar rises despite a stable US Dollar, Aussie Unemployment Rate awaited.

The Australian Dollar lost ground as the US Dollar rose on upbeat US CPI numbers. Australian ASX 200 Index falls; puts pressure on the AUD. US Dollar strengthened on upbeat US Treasury yields. Robust US CPI numbers dashed the chances of a Fed rate cut in March. The Australian Dollar (AUD) makes an effort to retrace its recent losses recorded in the previous session. The decline in the AUD/USD pair was driven by robust US inflation data for January, which dashed hopes of an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in March. The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains steady near three-month highs, supported by recent gains, while US yields trade at multi-week highs across the yield curve.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.6512 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6546 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6583 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.6508 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6545 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6643 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 38.1801 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 21.9181 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.6763 R2 : 0.6837
  • S1 : 0.6524 S2 : 0.6449

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 0.6492 | Take Profit: 0.6434 | Stop Loss: 0.6532

USD/JPY

Japanese Yen remains on the front foot against the USD and lacks follow-through buying.

The Japanese Yen strengthened a bit in reaction to verbal intervention by Japanese authorities. The risk-off impulse further benefits the safe-haven JPY and exerts some pressure on USD/JPY. The hotter-than-expected US CPI reaffirms hawkish Fed expectations and favors the USD bulls. The Japanese Yen (JPY) draws support from a combination of factors and sticks to its modest intraday gains against the US Dollar (USD) heading into the European session on Monday. A turnaround in the global risk sentiment, along with verbal intervention by Japanese authorities, provided a goodish lift to the safe-haven JPY. Apart from this, a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick drags the USD/JPY pair away from a two-month peak touched the precious day.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 149.1567 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 148.2385 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 147.1153 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 148.8600 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 148.3288 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 145.5636 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 66.6284 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 93.7306 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 148.5761 R2 : 150.4646
  • S1 : 142.4626 S2 : 140.5741

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 150.01 | Take Profit: 151.39 | Stop Loss: 149.20

USD/CHF

USD/CHF corrects gradually to 0.8860, upside remains favored amid stubborn US Inflation.

USD/CHF delivers a mild correction from an 11-week high of 0.8880 as the USD Index turns subdued. The broader appeal for the US Dollar remains upbeat as investors see the first rate cut by the Fed in July. The SNB may roll back its restrictive interest rate stance sooner amid easing price pressures. The USD/CHF pair delivers a moderate corrective move from an 11-week high of 0.8880 in the late Asian session on Wednesday. The corrective move seems profit-booking after a strong rally inspired by January’s sticky United States inflation data. Therefore, more upside in the Swiss Franc asset is anticipated.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.8758 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.8705 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.8684 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.8736 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.8694 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.8623 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 72.0969 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 94.9025 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.8706 R2 : 0.8784
  • S1 : 0.8452 S2 : 0.8374

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 0.8845 | Take Profit: 0.8969 | Stop Loss: 0.8781

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

EUR/GBP up 0.23% to 0.8523. The EUR/USD was down 0.04% to 1.0703. The USD/CAD is down 0.07% at 1.3554. NZD/USD up 0.35% at 0.6081. AUD/NZD is up 0.25% at 1.0675, The USD/CNY is down 0.01% at 7.1936, and AUD/SEK is up 0.15% at 6.8462, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(GBP) CPI (YoY) (Jan) Actual 4.0%, Forecast 4.1%, Previous 4.0% at 12:30. (EUR) GDP (QoQ) Forecast 0.0%, Previous –0.1% at 15:30. (EUR) Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) Forecast –0.2%, Previous –0.3% at 15:30. (EUR) GDP (YoY) (Q4) Forecast 0.1%, Previous 0.0% at 15:30. (GBP) BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 20:30. (USD) Crude Oil Inventories Forecast 3.300M, Previous 5.521M at 21:00.