. Daily FX Analysis -GBP/USD, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and USD/CAD.

Daily FX Analysis – GBP/USD, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and USD/CAD.

Daily FX Analysis – GBP/USD, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and USD/CAD.

09 Feb 2024

Introduction

GBP/USD steadies above 1.2600, showing resilience despite a softer USD. The pair struggles to extend gains from the 1.2570 region, maintaining a narrow range in early European trading. While upbeat US labor market figures lifted the Greenback, the Bank of England’s stance on delaying rate cuts may limit further losses. EUR/USD faces resistance near 1.0800 and the 100-day SMA, maintaining a struggle to break through. The pair hovers around 1.0770, influenced by a late loss of USD momentum and comments from ECB’s Robert Holzmann. AUD/USD trades near 0.6500 after RBA Bullock’s testimony, facing limited upside amid cautious market sentiment. USD/CAD rebounds near 1.3460 on lower crude prices and market caution amid Middle East tensions.

Markets In Focus Today – GBP/USD

GBP/USD holds steady above 1.2600, bulls seem non-committed despite a softer USD.

The GBP/USD struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s goodish bounce of around 50 pips from the 1.2570 region and oscillates in a narrow band during the early European trading hours on Friday. Spot prices trade near the top end of the weekly range, around the 1.2620 area. On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair declined towards the 1.2615 level showing slight losses with upbeat US labor market figures benefiting the Greenback with Jobless claims from the week ending on February 3 coming in lower than expected. However, the Bank of England (BoE) holds a somewhat similar stance as the Federal Reserve (Fed) in delaying rate cuts so the losses may be limited.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.2637 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.2658 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.2638 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.2645 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.2671 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.2673 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 44.8720 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 38.8021 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.2762 R2 : 1.2806
  • S1 : 1.2617 S2 : 1.2573

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.2632 | Take Profit: 1.2566 | Stop Loss: 1.2682

EUR/USD

EUR/USD seems vulnerable while below the 100-day SMA, 1.0800 mark.

The EUR/USD pair continues with its struggle to make it through the 100-day SMA barrier and meets with some supply during the early European session on Friday. Spot prices trade around the 1.0770 area, down just over 0.05% for the day. The late loss of momentum in the US Dollar sparked some rebound in the risk complex, leaving EUR/USD hovering around the 1.0770/80 region on Thursday and still capped by the provisional 100-day SMA. Shifting focus to the ECB, Board member Robert Holzmann (hawk) suggested the certain chance that the central bank might not cut its policy rate this year.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.0796 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.0831 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.0857 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.0796 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.0838 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.0894 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 39.1798 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 23.9345 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.0982 R2 : 1.1041
  • S1 : 1.0790 S2 : 1.0731

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 1.0752 | Take Profit: 1.0678 | Stop Loss : 1.0810

AUD/USD

AUD/USD remains capped by 0.6500 after RBA Bullock’s testimony.

AUD/USD is trading in a tight range near 0.6500 early Friday. A pause in the US Dollar rebound is lending some support to the pair but the upside appears limited due to a cautious market mood, following RBA Governor Bullock’s testimony. US CPI revisions are awaited. The Australian dollar came under renewed selling pressure amidst the solid performance of the Greenback on Thursday. In the meantime, market participants continued to evaluate the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest interest rate decision, which kept rates unchanged at 4.35% while delivering a hawkish message that left a potential future rate hike in the pipeline for the time being.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.6528 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6564 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6594 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.6536 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6560 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6647 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 34.7995 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 20.6298 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.6763 R2 : 0.6837
  • S1 : 0.6523 S2 : 0.6449

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 0.6484 | Take Profit: 0.6426 | Stop Loss: 0.6521

USD/CAD

USD/CAD inches higher to near 1.3460 on subdued Crude prices.

USD/CAD rebounds on the back of lower Crude oil prices. BoC Governing Council emphasized that US consumer spending could persist stronger than anticipated. The US Dollar receives upward support as the market adopts caution amid escalated tension in the Middle East. USD/CAD halts its four-day losing streak as the US Dollar (USD) improves on market caution amid escalated geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Additionally, the decline in Crude oil prices is contributing to downward pressure on the Canadian Dollar, consequently, underpinning the USD/CAD pair with trading around 1.3460 during the Asian session on Friday. Moreover, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price tries to snap its four-day winning streak, edging lower to near $76.20 per barrel.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.3460 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.3447 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.3456 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.3449 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.3460 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.3416 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 52.2603 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 54.9496 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.3520 R2 : 1.3594
  • S1 : 1.3281 S2 : 1.3207

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 1.3455 | Take Profit: 1.3543 | Stop Loss: 1.3399

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

EUR/GBP down 0.04% to 0.8538. The NZD/USD up 0.38% to 0.6119. The USD/CHF up 0.09% at 0.8744. USD/JPY up 0.09% at 1.0781. AUD/NZD is down 0.29% at 1.0617, The USD/CNY is up 0.01% at 7.1972, and the AUD/SEK is up 0.09% at 6.8063, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(AUD) RBA Bullock Speaks at 04:00. (EUR) German CPI (MoM) (Jan) Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.1% at 12:30. (CAD) Unemployment Rate (Jan) Forecast 5.9%, Previous 5.8% at 19:00. (CAD) Employment Change (Jan) Forecast 16.0K, Previous 0.1K at 19:00.