. Daily FX Analysis - GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF Insights.

Daily FX Analysis – GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF Insights.

Daily FX Analysis – GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF Insights.

05 Mar 2024

Introduction

As GBP/USD navigates the 1.2700 handle amid a crucial trading week, attention is focused on the UK’s BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales data and the looming US NFP report. While Fed rate cut hopes rise, cautious optimism prevails with Fed Chair Powell’s influence. Meanwhile, EUR/USD tread cautiously, and the Japanese Yen faces uncertainties linked to BoJ policy. In the USD/CHF realm, consolidation persists above 0.8850, with eyes on the upcoming US Services PMI and Fed Chair Powell’s testimony. Traders brace for pivotal central bank events shaping market directions.

Markets In Focus Today – GBP/USD

GBP/USD grapples with 1.2700 handle as markets bid into a hefty trading week.

BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales the biggest-hitting UK data this week. US NFP looms ahead on Friday, ADP employment preview on Wednesday. Fed rate cut hopes are on the rise once again, but Fed Chair Powell remains a threat. GBP/USD climbed into the 1.2700 handle on Monday before falling back, paring away some of the day’s gains but hitting the rollover higher than it started. The UK sees only a thin showing on the economic calendar this week, and another US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) labor print on Friday sees investors gearing up for another kick at the can on how soon the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin cutting interest rates.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.2660 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2652 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.2641 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.2664 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2635 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.2672 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 55.1642 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 80.3181 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.2735 R2 : 1.2794
  • S1 : 1.2541 S2 : 1.2482

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 1.2693 | Take Profit: 1.2772 | Stop Loss: 1.2648

EUR/USD

EUR/USD flat-lines around mid-1.0800s; awaits rate-cut cues from Fed and ECB.

EUR/USD oscillates in a narrow trading band on Tuesday amid mixed fundamental cues. Traders also opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of this week’s key central bank event risks. The downside seems limited amid reduced bets for more aggressive easing by the ECB. The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on its strong gains registered over the past two days and oscillates in a narrow trading band during the Asian session on Tuesday. Spot prices currently trade around mid-1.0800s, nearly unchanged for the day and just below a one-week high touched on Monday. Traders now seem reluctant and prefer to wait for this week’s key central bank event risks before placing aggressive directional bets, which, in turn, leads to the EUR/USD pair’s subdued range-bound price action.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.0830 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.0823 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.0835 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.0834 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.0800 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.0864 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 54.7775 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 78.0571 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.0876 R2 : 1.0924
  • S1 : 1.0722 S2 : 1.0674

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 1.0853 | Take Profit: 1.0923 | Stop Loss: 1.0817

USD/JPY

Japanese Yen bulls shrug off stronger Tokyo CPI print, subdued USD price action.

The Japanese Yen ticks higher on stronger Tokyo CPI, albeit lacks follow-through. The BoJ policy uncertainty is holding back the JPY bulls from placing fresh bets. Traders also seem reluctant and prefer to wait for the US macro data/event risks. The Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles to capitalize on the stronger Tokyo CPI-inspired modest uptick, though manages to hold above last week’s swing low against its American counterpart through the Asian session on Tuesday. The uncertainty over the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) plan to tighten its monetary policy holds back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets. The downside, however, remains cushioned amid expectations that the BoJ will pivot away from its ultra-loose monetary policy settings if wage negotiations result in bumper pay hikes. Adding to this, speculations that Japanese authorities will intervene to prop up the domestic currency and the cautious market mood lend some support to the safe-haven JPY.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 150.3014 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 149.8304 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 148.4930 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 150.4176 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 150.0842 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 147.5170 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 60.8853 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 70.8399 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 150.8153 R2 : 151.9920
  • S1 : 147.0060 S2 : 145.8293

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 150.62 | Take Profit: 1501.80 | Stop Loss: 149.07

USD/CHF

USD/CHF consolidates in a narrow trading range above 0.8850, US Services PMI eyed.

USD/CHF oscillates around 0.8855 in Tuesday’s early Asian session. Fed’s Bostic said it will likely be appropriate to approve two quarter-point rate cuts by the end of this year. The Swiss CPI eased to 1.2% in February from 1.3% in January, better than expected. The USD/CHF pair consolidates in a narrow trading range around the mid-0.8800s during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will publish the US Services PMI report later in the day, which is estimated to ease from 53.4 in January to 53.0 in February. At press time, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8855, gaining 0.08% on the day. The US ISM Services PMI will be due on Tuesday. On Wednesday, investors will monitor Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell’s testify. The hawkish comments from the Fed officials might boost the Greenback and create a tailwind for the USD/CHF pair.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.8821 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.8790 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.8740 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.8815 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.8804 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 0.8665 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 64.6977 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 68.1130 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.8888 R2 : 0.8966
  • S1 : 0.8634 S2 : 0.8556

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 0.8877 | Take Profit: 0.8972 | Stop Loss: 0.8823

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

NZD/USD up 0.28% to 0.6076, The USD/CAD up 0.19% to 1.3599. The EUR/GBP is down 0.02% at 0.8563. AUD/USD down 0.37% at 0.6484. AUD/NZD down 0.07% at 1.0670, The USD/CNY is up 0.01% at 7.1986, and AUD/SEK is down 0.28% at 6.7335, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(JPY) Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Feb) Forecast 2.5%, Previous 1.6% at 05:00. (GBP) Service PMI (Feb) Forecast 54.3, Previous 54.3 at 15:00. (GBP) Composite PMI (Feb) Forecast 53.3, Previous 52.9 at 15:00. (USD) Service PMI (Feb) Forecast 51.3, Previous 52.5 at 20:15. (USD) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Forecast 53.0, Previous 53.4 at 20:30.