. Daily FX Analysis - GBP/USD Rise, EUR/USD Caution, AUD/USD Geopolitics, USD/JPY Bullish.

Daily FX Analysis – GBP/USD Rise, EUR/USD Caution, AUD/USD Geopolitics, USD/JPY Bullish.

Daily FX Analysis – GBP/USD Rise, EUR/USD Caution, AUD/USD Geopolitics, USD/JPY Bullish.

29 Jan 2024

Introduction

GBP/USD reclaims 1.2700 amid a halted US Dollar recovery, driven by reduced expectations of an early BoE rate cut. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pose a potential cap on gains. Meanwhile, EUR/USD faces defensive trading near 1.0850, influenced by heightened US Dollar demand amid geopolitical concerns. AUD/USD consolidates near 0.6600 despite geopolitical risks, with attention on US jobs data. USD/JPY hovers around 147.70, with bullish momentum indicated, while technical analysis suggests potential improvement towards 148.00.

Markets In Focus Today – GBP/USD

GBP/USD retakes 1.2700 as US Dollar stalls recovery.

GBP/USD is trading above 1.2700, finding fresh demand amid a stalled US Dollar recovery in early Europe on Monday. The pair cheers reduced bets for an early BoE rate cut ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision. Middle East geopolitical tensions could cap the upside. GBP/USD lost its traction and dropped below 1.2700 in the early trading hours of the European session on Friday. Although the near-term technical outlook is yet to highlight a build-up of bearish momentum, buyers could remain discouraged unless the pair manages to reclaim 1.2700. Instead, market participants could remain focused on risk perception.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.26 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 52.39 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 56.61 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.28 R2 : 1.29
  • S1 : 1.26 S2 : 1.25

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 1.2686 | Take Profit: 1.2783 | Stop Loss: 1.2629

EUR/USD

EUR/USD stays defensive near 1.0850 amid cautious markets.

EUR/USD trades on the defensive below 1.0850 in European trading on Monday. The pair’s cautious tone is supported by renewed US Dollar demand amid rising geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Investors stay unnerved ahead of an eventful week. After closing in negative territory on Thursday, EUR/USD extended its slide and touched its lowest level since mid-December below 1.0850. The near-term technical outlook points to a build-up of bearish momentum and additional losses could be seen if 1.0800 support fails. In case safe-haven flows dominate the action in financial markets in the second half of the day, EUR/USD could have a difficult time staging a rebound ahead of the weekend.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 1.09 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 41.51 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 17.49 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.11 R2 : 1.12
  • S1 : 1.08 S2 : 1.07

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.0852 | Take Profit: 1.0762 | Stop Loss: 1.0923

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Rebound remains capped below 0.6600 on geopolitical risks.

AUD/USD is consolidating its minor rebound to near 0.6600 early Monday, despite the escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and the Middle East. The pair also finds its feet, despite a broad US Dollar demand. All eyes remain on US jobs data. Market sentiment is improving despite investors seeing the Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing interest rates from May instead of March amid a resilient US economy. Meanwhile, investors await fresh guidance for the interest rate outlook, which would be offered by the US core PCE price index data. On the Australian Dollar front, investors await the Q4 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will be released next week.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.66 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 0.66 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.67 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 41.74 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 28.25 | Sell Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.69 R2 : 0.69
  • S1 : 0.66 S2 : 0.65

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 0.6607 | Take Profit: 0.6541 | Stop Loss: 0.6658

USD/JPY

USD/JPY Price Analysis Hovers around 147.70 with the bullish sentiment.

USD/JPY could improve towards the psychological resistance at the 148.00 level. Technical indicators suggest a bullish momentum to revisit January’s high at 148.80. USD/JPY grapples to inch higher for the second consecutive session, trading near the 147.70 level during the European hours on Friday. The USD/JPY receives upward support as the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Japan’s national capital decelerated below the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2.0% target for the first time in nearly two years.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 147.47 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 146.56 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 146.13 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 147.93 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 146.19 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 145.45 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 61.73 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 81.88 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 146.29 R2 : 148.20
  • S1 : 140.11 S2 : 138.20

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 147.34 | Take Profit: 148.78 | Stop Loss: 146.49

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

EUR/GBP down 0.05% to 0.8534. The USD/CHF down 0.01% to 0.8630. The NZD/USD up 0.18% at 0.6100. EUR/GBP down 0.05% at 0.8533. EUR/JPY is down 0.21% at 160.39, The USD/CNY is up 0.07% at 7.1817, and the AUD/SEK is up 0.13% at 6.8882, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(EUR) ECB’s De Guindos Speaks at 08:10. (AUD) Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) Forecast –0.7%, Previous 2.0% at 19:30.