. Daily FX Analysis - Global Currency Trends, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF

Daily FX Analysis – Global Currency Trends, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF

Daily FX Analysis – Global Currency Trends, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF

30 Nov 2023

Introduction:

In currency markets, AUD/USD is on a rebound towards 0.6650, fuelled by optimism surrounding China’s potential stimulus measures. Despite a decline after a four-day rise on Wednesday, the pair remains hopeful amid a subdued US Dollar performance. The focus shifts to key US PCE inflation data. Meanwhile, EUR/USD struggles below 1.1000, with attention on upcoming EU/US inflation data. USD/JPY maintains elevation but faces pressure from expectations of Fed rate cuts. USD/CHF trends downward near 0.8730, anticipating Swiss Retail Sales, with the Swiss Franc strengthened by hawkish SNB comments.

AUD/USD:

AUD/USD rebounds towards 0.6650 amid optimism regarding China’s stimulus measures.

AUD/USD is making a recovery towards 0.6650 on Thursday. The pair is optimistic that the discouraging Chinese NBS PMI data will lead Chinese authorities to increase stimulus measures. The pair’s rebound is supported by a subdued performance of the US Dollar, with key US PCE inflation data on the horizon.

After a four-day consecutive increase, the AUD/USD declined on Wednesday. The US Dollar found stability, buoyed by favourable US data.  The forthcoming US data on Thursday will be closely monitored and may play a crucial role for the pair.

The forthcoming US data on Thursday will be closely monitored and may play a crucial role for the pair.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 0.6623 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 0.6589 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 0.6529 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 0.6630 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 0.6587 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 0.6507| Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 65.55| Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 12.05| Selling Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 0.6626| R2: 0.6738
  • S1: 0.6566| S2: 0.6492

Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 0.6650 | Take Profit: 0.6738 | Stop Loss: 0.6604

EUR/USD:

EUR/USD continues to be restricted below 1.1000, with attention on EU/US inflation data.

EUR/USD is encountering difficulties below 1.1000, with the US Dollar holding onto gains during Thursday’s Asian trading hours. The Euro faced pressure on Wednesday due to softer-than-expected German and Spanish inflation data. Investors are anticipating fresh momentum from Thursday’s Eurozone inflation data.

The EUR/USD achieved a new three-month peak at 1.1016 but was unable to sustain levels above 1.1000, experiencing a retreat despite increased risk appetite. Inflation decelerated in Europe, while the US economy exhibited even more robust growth than initially indicated in the third quarter.

Scheduled for Thursday are releases of US data, including the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and the weekly Jobless Claims.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 1.0979| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 1.0945| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 1.0867 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 1.0980 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 1.0941 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 1.0855 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 67.79| Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 30.14| Sell zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 1.1003| R2: 1.1148
  • S1: 1.0889| S2: 1.0789

Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 1.1040| Take Profit: 1.1148 | Stop Loss: 1.0980

USD/JPY:

USD/JPY remains elevated close to a multi-month peak, with attention directed toward upcoming US PCE data.

The Japanese Yen maintains its relative outperformance, driven by expectations of a hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Anticipations of a sequence of rate reductions by the Federal Reserve in 2024 diminish the strength of the USD, exerting downward pressure on USD/JPY.

Bearish sentiment becomes cautious, with a focus on the US PCE Price Index before considering new positioning for momentum.

On Wednesday, the Japanese Yen (JPY) surged to a level not seen in over two months against the US Dollar (USD). However, it retraced some of its intraday gains following statements from a Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 147.37 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 148.28| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 149.10 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 147.27 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 148.53 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 149.67| Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 36.67| Selling Zone| Bearish

Stochastic Oscillator: 24.31 |Selling Zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 148.29| R2: 149.96
  • S1: 146.92 | S2: 144.80

Overall Sentiment: Bearish | Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 146.21 | Take Profit: 144.80 | Stop Loss: 147.28

USD/CHF:

USD/CHF is on a downward trajectory around 0.8730, anticipating Swiss Real Retail Sales data.

USD/CHF remains in a downtrend as the US Dollar endeavours to reverse recent advancements. The Q3 US GDP Annualized grew by 5.2%, surpassing the anticipated increase of 5.0%.

USD/CHF is on a five-session decline, predominantly influenced by the weakness of the US Dollar (USD) and subdued US Treasury yields. The pair is trading around 0.8730 in the Asian session on Thursday.

Swiss Franc (CHF) retains support and strengthens following hawkish remarks from Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan, who has not ruled out the potential for future interest rate hikes.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 0.8753 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 0.8797| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 0.8859| Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 0.8750 | Positive Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 1.3656| Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 1.3715| Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 16.35| Selling Zone | Bearish

Stochastic Oscillator: 0| Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 0.8822 | R2: 0.8906
  • S1: 0.8717 | S2: 0.8593

Overall Sentiment: Bearish | Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 0.8674| Take Profit: 0.8593 | Stop Loss: 0.8729.

Elsewhere in the Forex Market

GBP/USD up 0.02% to 1.2696. The USD/CAD down 0.08% to 1.3578. The EUR/GBP down 0.00% at 0.8639. NZD/USD up 0.23% at 0.6169, EUR/JPY down 0.08% at 161.33, The USD/CNY down 0.02% at 7.1283, AUD/SEK up 0.28% at 6.8781, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(CNY) Manufacturing PMI (Nov) Actual 49.4, Forecast 49.7, Previous 49.5 at 07:00.

(EUR) German Unemployment Change (Nov) Forecast 22k, Previous 30K at 14:25.

(EUR) CPI (YoY) (Nov) Forecast 2.7%, Previous 2.9% at 15:30.

(CAD) GDP (MoM) (Sep) Forecast 0.0%, Previous 0.0% at 19:00.

(USD) Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 220K, Previous 209K at 19:00.

(EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 19:00.

(USD) Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Oct) Forecast –2.0%, Previous 1.1% at 20:30.