. Daily FX Analysis - Major Currency Pairs Plummet Despite Positive Job Data.

Daily FX Analysis – Major Currency Pairs Plummet Despite Positive Job Data.

Daily FX Analysis – Major Currency Pairs Plummet Despite Positive Job Data.

16 Nov 2023

Introduction:

In the currency markets, GBP/USD faces a decline below 1.2400 amid a resurging USD, while EUR/GBP encounters resistance around 0.8760-65 fuelled by disappointing UK inflation data. Meanwhile, NZD/USD grapples with uncertainties over Fed rate hikes, and AUD/USD experiences a setback as the Australian Dollar slips below 0.6500 amidst rising unemployment rates. Market participants eagerly await the release of US Jobless Claims for further insights.

GBP/USD:

GBP/USD falls below 1.2400 amid steady USD Recovery.

The GBP/USD has dipped below the 1.2400 mark once again, experiencing further declines during Thursday’s European session. The pair is being influenced by the gravitational pull caused by a strengthening US Dollar and a prevailing risk-averse sentiment in the market.

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD exhibited notable advances, surpassing the 1.2500 threshold for the first time in two months. However, the Pound Sterling faced diminished enthusiasm on Wednesday, particularly after the release of UK inflation data, leading the pair to retract a modest portion of its recent gains.

If the risk rally persists into the American session, it may assist GBP/USD in recovering its momentum.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 1.2420 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 1.2339 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 1.2278 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 1.2423 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 1.2314 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 1.2243| Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 58.21| Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 47.72| Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 1.2393| R2: 1.2598
  • S1: 1.2221| S2: 1.2023

Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 1.2442 | Take Profit: 1.2598 | Stop Loss: 1.2343

EUR/GBP:

EUR/GBP the upside barrier is seen at the 0.8760-65 zone.

EUR/GBP is advancing around the 0.8745 mark following the release of softer UK inflation data.

In the early European session on Thursday, the EUR/GBP pair continued to climb. The negative impact of the discouraging UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Wednesday is putting pressure on the British Pound (GBP), providing support for the EUR/GBP pair.

Moreover, the potential for interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) may limit the upside for the GBP. Currently, the pair is hovering around 0.8745, reflecting a 0.09% increase for the day.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 0.8740| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 0.8722| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 0.8709 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 0.8734 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 0.8722 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 0.8711 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 67.26| Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 85.54| Buy zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 0.8765| R2: 0.8822
  • S1: 0.8722| S2: 0.8665

Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 0.8777| Take Profit: 0.8822 | Stop Loss: 0.8751

NZD/USD:

NZD/USD moves below 0.6000 on Fed uncertainty over rate hikes.

NZD/USD may encounter difficulties as investors exercise caution regarding the Federal Reserve’s policy. The Kiwi Dollar received support from favorable news related to China, given the trade relations between the two countries. Despite subdued inflation, the Fed’s cautious approach introduces uncertainty into the market.

NZD/USD is looking to reverse its recent advances, hovering around 0.5980 during Thursday’s Asian hours. Nevertheless, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) found support from positive economic data in China, contributing to an improved trade outlook for the country.

Market participants are likely anticipating the release of the weekly US Jobless Claims scheduled for later in the North American session.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 0.5991 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 0.5949| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 0.5919 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 0.6008 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 0.5934 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 0.5895| Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 60.61| Buying Zone| Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 76.33 |Buying Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 0.6000| R2: 0.6113
  • S1: 0.5882 | S2: 0.5778

Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 0.6027 | Take Profit: 0.6113 | Stop Loss: 0.5974

AUD/USD:

AUD/USD slumps as Unemployment rate edges higher.

Despite a substantial rise in new jobs in the country, the Australian Dollar concludes a series of victories. Australia’s Employment Change surged to 55,000 in October, while the Unemployment Rate met expectations by rising to 3.7%.

On Thursday, following the release of Australian Employment data, the Australian Dollar (AUD) dips below the psychological level of 0.6500 with a downward inclination.

In October, Australia’s Unemployment Rate met expectations at 3.7%, aligning with the previous figure of 3.6%. Nevertheless, the AUD/USD pair underwent fluctuations in the preceding session following the release of economic data from the United States (US) on Wednesday.

Technical Overview:

Moving Averages:

Exponential:

  • MA 5: 0.6484 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20: 0.6441| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 0.6412| Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

  • MA 5: 0.6496 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 0.6421| Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50: 0.6402| Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 61.61| Buying Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator: 81.74| Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels:

  • R1: 0.6507 | R2: 0.6598
  • S1: 0.6432 | S2: 0.6357

Overall Sentiment: Bullish | Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 0.6520| Take Profit: 0.6598 | Stop Loss: 0.6471.

Elsewhere in the Forex Market

EUR/USD down 0.07% to 1.0839. The USD/CAD up 0.07% to 1.3693. The USD/CHF up 0.05% at 0.8883. USD/JPY up 0.03% at 151.36, EUR/JPY down 0.06% at 164.05, The USD/CNY up 0.12% at 7.2550, AUD/SEK down 0.35% at 6.8462, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(AUD) Employment Change (Oct) Actual 55.0K, Forecast 20.0K, Previous 6.7K at 06:00.

(EUR) ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 17:00.

(USD) Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 220K, Previous 217K at 19:00.

(USD) Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov) Forecast –9.0, Previous –9.0 at 19:00.