. Daily FX Analysis -Major forex pairs cautious ahead of inflation data.

Daily FX Analysis -Major forex pairs cautious ahead of inflation data.

Daily FX Analysis -Major forex pairs cautious ahead of inflation data.

29 Feb 2024

Introduction

EUR/USD maintains stability above 1.0800 as it trades sideways amid renewed weakness in the US Dollar. However, upward momentum is restrained ahead of crucial German and US inflation data. Meanwhile, other currency pairs like NZD/USD and USD/JPY experience fluctuations amid market developments and anticipation of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. GBP/USD, influenced by renewed USD demand, awaits fresh impetus from the upcoming US PCE data.

Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD

EUR/USD holds steady above 1.0800, as German/ US inflation data loom.

EUR/USD is trading sideways above 1.0800 on Thursday’s European morning. The pair stays underpinned by the renewed US Dollar weakness. But further upside remains elusive ahead of the key inflation data from Germany and the US. EUR/USD sagged early Friday after European sentiment indicators came in below expectations, and a crooked print in US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures kept the pair in familiar territory midweek. Thursday brings plenty of data for investors to chew on with German Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers, closely followed by US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) inflation.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.0821 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.0816 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.0834 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.0818 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.0788 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.0875 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 52.4190 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 74.0951 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.0982 R2 : 1.1041
  • S1 : 1.0790 S2 : 1.0731

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 1.0856 | Take Profit: 1.0941 | Stop Loss: 1.0823

NZD/USD

NZD/USD Price Sticks to modest gains around 0.6100, not out of the woods yet.

NZD/USD stages a modest recovery from over a one-week low amid some USD selling. The technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for any meaningful gains. Acceptance below the 100-day SMA is needed to confirm the near-term negative outlook. The NZD/USD pair attracted some buying during the Asian session on Thursday and reversed a part of the previous day’s heavy losses to a one-and-half-week low touched in the aftermath of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy decision. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.6100 mark, albeit lack follow-through as traders keenly await the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index before placing fresh directional bets.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 0.6138 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6136 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6136 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 0.6153 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 0.6123 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 0.6170 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 43.3022 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic   Oscillator : 42.2513 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 0.6267 R2 : 0.6329
  • S1 : 0.6066 S2 : 0.6004

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 0.6091 | Take Profit: 0.6033 | Stop Loss: 0.6131

USD/JPY

Japanese Yen eases from over one-week high, bulls turn cautious ahead of US PCE Price Index.

The Japanese Yen gains strong positive traction in reaction to hawkish remarks by BoJ’s Takata. A modest USD downtick exerts additional pressure on USD/JPy and contributes to the decline. Traders now look to the release of the crucial US PCE Price Index for a fresh directional impetus. The Japanese Yen (JPY) catches aggressive bids during the Asian session on Thursday following a fresh intervention warning and hawkish comments by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Hajime Takata. Apart from this, a generally weaker tone around the equity markets boosts the safe-haven JPY. This, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) weakness, drags the USD/JPY pair to over a one-week low.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 150.1780 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 149.6144 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 148.2440 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 150.3051 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20 : 149.7634 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50 : 147.0305 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 54.4006 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 71.9619 | Buy Zone | Negative

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 148.5458 R2 : 150.4342
  • S1 : 142.4322 S2 : 140.5438

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 150.01 | Take Profit: 148.68 | Stop Loss: 150.83

GBP/USD

GBP/USD trades on a softer note above the mid-1.2600s, US PCE data eyed.

The GBP/USD pair bounces off the multi-day lows near 1.2620 and recovers to 1.2660 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The renewed US Dollar (USD) demand ahead of the key US event weighs on the major pair. Investors await the US January Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) on Thursday for fresh impetus. The GBP/USD pair bounces off the multi-day lows near 1.2620 and recovers to 1.2660 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The renewed US Dollar (USD) demand ahead of the key US event weighs on the major pair. Investors await the US January Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) on Thursday for fresh impetus. At press time, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2660, down 0.01% for the day.

Technical   Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

  • MA 10 : 1.2651 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2647 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.2637 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

  • MA 10 : 1.2646 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 20 : 1.2623 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
  • MA 50 : 1.2674 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 51.0840 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic   Oscillator : 74.9042 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance   And Support Levels :

  • R1 : 1.2762 R2 : 1.2806
  • S1 : 1.2617 S2 : 1.2573

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 1.2639 | Take Profit: 1.2724 | Stop Loss: 1.2595

Elsewhere In The Forex Market

AUD/USD up 0.27% to 0.6513. The USD/CAD is down 0.01% to 1.3575. The EUR/GBP up 0.03% at 0.8562. USD/CHF is down 0.05% at 0.8783. AUD/NZD is up 0.52% at 1.0656, The USD/CNY is down 0.04% at 7.1943, and the AUD/SEK is up 0.18% at 6.7239, at the time of writing.

Key Economic Events & Data Release Today:

(NZD) RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks at 00:40. (AUD) Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) Actual 1.1%, Forecast 1.6%, Previous –2.7% at 06:00. (EUR) German Unemployment Change (Feb) Forecast 6K, Previous –2K at 14:25. (EUR) German CPI (MoM) (Feb) Forecast 0.5%, Previous 0.2% at 18:30. (USD) Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jan) Forecast 0.4%, Previous 0.2% at 19:00. (CAD) GDP (MoM) (Jan) at 19:1. (USD) Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jan) Forecast 1.4%, Previous 8.3% at 20:30.